Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Badger]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

It dawned on me that a trend map would be really informative here, so one can see how much of this shift in rural areas was a result of rispone Performing markedly better than David Vitter, versus an actual receding of support for Democrats.

[Adam Griffin]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

It dawned on me that a trend map would be really informative here, so one can see how much of this shift in rural areas was a result of rispone Performing markedly better than David Vitter, versus an actual receding of support for Democrats.

Atlas Trend ("change in D-R margin from the previous election relative to the national change in D-R margin"):



Though you may have had something else in mind (i.e. county swings relative to state swing).

[Skill and Chance]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

It dawned on me that a trend map would be really informative here, so one can see how much of this shift in rural areas was a result of rispone Performing markedly better than David Vitter, versus an actual receding of support for Democrats.

This illustrates quite well why I expect Dems to have better long term prospects in LA than in MS.  The potential for NOLA to eventually do what Atlanta is doing to GA is real. 

[Badger]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

It dawned on me that a trend map would be really informative here, so one can see how much of this shift in rural areas was a result of rispone Performing markedly better than David Vitter, versus an actual receding of support for Democrats.

Atlas Trend ("change in D-R margin from the previous election relative to the national change in D-R margin"):



Though you may have had something else in mind (i.e. county swings relative to state swing).

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

[Adam Griffin]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

[Gass3268]

Here is a fun map from Miles:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1196128026783813639?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

^^ That 2003 result is really crazy when you look at it. Spend a good deal of time assessing margins and vote counts county-by-county and it starts to make sense, but given that Jindal barely won any counties (and most that he did, he barely won; Bossier, Lafayette, Ouachita, EBR), coming so close boggles the mind initially. It's probably the best/most extreme example in the 21st century of the old Deep South voting patterns.

A tied game in Jefferson & St Tammany alone would've led to Jindal losing by 10.

[Badger]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

Thanks Griffin! Excellent job as always.

So it appears Edwards collapse among rural voters was quite real. Scarily so, in fact.

But just like in Kentucky and the 2018 midterms, Suburban areas turning on Republicans largely carried the day for Democrats.

[Badger]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Probably about 52-48 Rispone, but it's undersized and would have to take in more piney woods south of there (piney woods=white)

[Adam Griffin]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

How much of the swing in LA-1 was just from losing the Vitter homeboy effect? Was any of it from that?

[DINGO Joe]

How much of the swing in LA-1 was just from losing the Vitter homeboy effect? Was any of it from that?

A little bit and Rispone did a little better in EBR because he's in Baton Rouge.  There are demographic shifts going on also as New Orleans gets a little whiter and the suburbs get a little more diverse (less white)  over the last decade.   

[Rookie Yinzer]

Do we know the final racial breakdown of the electorate and what percentage the Governor got with white and black voters?

[DINGO Joe]

Do we know the final racial breakdown of the electorate and what percentage the Governor got with white and black voters?

It'll post on the sec of state website when the returns are finals

[Adam Griffin]

Do we know the final racial breakdown of the electorate and what percentage the Governor got with white and black voters?

I've seen multiple educated estimates from sources that claim anywhere from 30-34% and 95-98% respectively. As Dingo said, it'll be easier to figure out once the final results are in since LA reports turnout data in a similar manner to GA along racial/parish/precinct lines. Just taking a guess, but I figure the electorate was still whiter than it was in 2016 (though less so than in 2015).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Why did Edwards do so bad in Acadiana? He was a southern moderate like Bill Clinton. Clinton dominated in Acadania in 92 and 96.

[lfromnj]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

Rispone or JBE?

[Badger]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

Thanks Adam. I think I forgot how sparsely populated those largely African-American Mississippi River counties are.

Do you agree with dingo Joe's assessment that the map you proposed probably doesn't have enough population to sustain a full congressional district?

[DINGO Joe]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

Thanks Adam. I think I forgot how sparsely populated those largely African-American Mississippi River counties are.

Do you agree with dingo Joe's assessment that the map you proposed probably doesn't have enough population to sustain a full congressional district?

Looking at the more detailed map that Adam provided, and based on 2018 estimates, if you included all of Ouachita and Franklin and kicked out Tensas and all of Natchitoches, you'd be about spot on.

[Skill and Chance]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

Seems very random how well he held up in Shreveport (Caddo/Bossier).

[lfromnj]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

Seems very random how well he held up in Shreveport (Caddo/Bossier).

Its urban and swung D from 2012 to 2016?
Why not.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Why did Edwards do so bad in Acadiana? He was a southern moderate like Bill Clinton. Clinton dominated in Acadania in 92 and 96.

Incredibly naive, non-native guess: isn't Acadiana incredibly reliant on oil and gas refining? Much moreso than the rest of the state. My impression from reading AR Hochschild's book is that aside from small farming/fishing operations natural resource production was the primary industry in Cajun country.

[Skill and Chance]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

Seems very random how well he held up in Shreveport (Caddo/Bossier).

Its urban and swung D from 2012 to 2016?
Why not.

Good point. This is why I think Dems have more of a future in LA than in many other Southern states.  A "cities only" Dem win is now possible there.

[lfromnj]

Although the weirder trend is Lafayette parish considering it swung towards Clinton in 2016.