Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[DINGO Joe]

Although the weirder trend is Lafayette parish considering it swung towards Clinton in 2016.

Yeah, even though Lafayette has the fewest minorities of any urban core parish, it's still pretty well educated, so I thought 55-45 would have been more likely. 

[Badger]

Although the weirder trend is Lafayette parish considering it swung towards Clinton in 2016.

Yeah, even though Lafayette has the fewest minorities of any urban core parish, it's still pretty well educated, so I thought 55-45 would have been more likely. 

Is it that well educated relatively speaking? I asked because I too was confused by how relatively poor Edwards did there.

[Badger]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

Thanks Adam. I think I forgot how sparsely populated those largely African-American Mississippi River counties are.

Do you agree with dingo Joe's assessment that the map you proposed probably doesn't have enough population to sustain a full congressional district?

Looking at the more detailed map that Adam provided, and based on 2018 estimates, if you included all of Ouachita and Franklin and kicked out Tensas and all of Natchitoches, you'd be about spot on.

Hey, we need Natchitoches in the district since JBE won it.  Keep its small population in exchange for a portion of some other more Republican County. It would be nice to have a remotely competitive District in the state.

And another news, Livingston Parish continues to prove it is a particularly awful place.

[DINGO Joe]

Although the weirder trend is Lafayette parish considering it swung towards Clinton in 2016.

Yeah, even though Lafayette has the fewest minorities of any urban core parish, it's still pretty well educated, so I thought 55-45 would have been more likely. 

Is it that well educated relatively speaking? I asked because I too was confused by how relatively poor Edwards did there.

Yeah it has a university and functions as the medical center for all of Acadiana West of the Atchafalaya.

[Oryxslayer]

You know guys, we have a 2020 Redistricting thread for Louisiana up  already in The Redistricting and Demographics board. This discussion might be more productive there.

[Badger]

You know guys, we have a 2020 Redistricting thread for Louisiana up  already in The Redistricting and Demographics board. This discussion might be more productive there.

Booooo! Spoil sport!

[Tender Branson]

When combining the votes of all 3 Governor races, Rs and Ds are about even at 49.5% each.

The Republicans have a 3.000 vote lead, but the results in MS are not yet final and thousands of votes will be added there ...

Compared with 2015, Democrats improved by about 4% combined in the 3 states.

[pppolitics]

To hear Rep. Steve Scalise tell it, President Donald Trump nearly won the Louisiana governor's race all by himself.

"Eddie Rispone made up a 22-point disadvantage over the last month because of President Trump's involvement," the Louisiana Republican congressman said of the party's gubernatorial nominee. "Clearly, President Trump's involvement made a big difference at helping close that massive gap."

LMAO!

[DINGO Joe]

To hear Rep. Steve Scalise tell it, President Donald Trump nearly won the Louisiana governor's race all by himself.

"Eddie Rispone made up a 22-point disadvantage over the last month because of President Trump's involvement," the Louisiana Republican congressman said of the party's gubernatorial nominee. "Clearly, President Trump's involvement made a big difference at helping close that massive gap."

LMAO!

Well, Rispone was 20 points behind in the primary 47-27.  I'm sure the Abraham voters wouldn't have swung behind Rispone without Trump leading the way.

Yeah, Scalisce is a worthless ball licker  just like the rest of the Republicans.

[DINGO Joe]

Now to go all BRTD

I vote in Orleans precinct 14-3.  Though in Orleans, it part of the city tacked on the Scalisce suburban district because white. It's an Uptown precinct that's 89% white with voter registration 40%D  26R 34O for 2019

Voting History
2012--Obama 49-45 over Romney
2016--Clinton 60-30 over Trump
2015--Edwards 74-26 over Vitter (who was rep for district at one time)
2019--Edwards 83-17 over Rispone

One asterisk is that early voting is never merged into precinct totals, though it probably mirrors election day voting.

[smoltchanov]

To hear Rep. Steve Scalise tell it, President Donald Trump nearly won the Louisiana governor's race all by himself.

"Eddie Rispone made up a 22-point disadvantage over the last month because of President Trump's involvement," the Louisiana Republican congressman said of the party's gubernatorial nominee. "Clearly, President Trump's involvement made a big difference at helping close that massive gap."

LMAO!

Never liked Scalise, but before this never thought about him being an idiot. Disappoined. And, interesting - what magic Trump has, that seemingly reasonable (though far different in their views from what's good in my opinion) people begin to tell such foolishness?

[DINGO Joe]

To hear Rep. Steve Scalise tell it, President Donald Trump nearly won the Louisiana governor's race all by himself.

"Eddie Rispone made up a 22-point disadvantage over the last month because of President Trump's involvement," the Louisiana Republican congressman said of the party's gubernatorial nominee. "Clearly, President Trump's involvement made a big difference at helping close that massive gap."

LMAO!

Never liked Scalise, but before this never thought about him being an idiot. Disappoined. And, interesting - what magic Trump has, that seemingly reasonable (though far different in their views from what's good in my opinion) people begin to tell such foolishness?

Keep in mind that it was the swing in Scalise's district that largely reelected Edwards.