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  Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread
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Author Topic: Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread  (Read 6832 times)
President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2019, 06:19:58 pm »


Polls close at 9 PM Eastern; it may be another 30 minutes or so before any meaningful results start pouring in, so ~3 hours from now I'd say.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2019, 06:48:49 pm »

Is anyone going to answer my question?
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
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« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2019, 06:54:21 pm »

Do individual parishes have a reporting bias? For example by counting the early vote first.
All of the EV is counted first in every parish. As for parishes that might be misleading at first, EBR, calcasieu, and Jefferson come to mind due to the polarized nature of said parishes.
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« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2019, 06:55:33 pm »


It's hard to tell, since we don't know whether the early vote will be more Democratic or Republican-friendly than the Election Day vote. It was more Republican-friendly in the primary, thus results got more favorable for Edwards as more came in, but we can't be sure whether or not that will be the case this time around.
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« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2019, 06:58:39 pm »


It's hard to tell, since we don't know whether the early vote will be more Democratic or Republican-friendly than the Election Day vote. It was more Republican-friendly in the primary, thus results got more favorable for Edwards as more came in, but we can't be sure whether or not that will be the case this time around.
If the ED vote is more friendly/the same as the EV, Rispone is beyond finished lol.
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« Reply #30 on: November 16, 2019, 07:05:01 pm »

I think it's pretty much a given that the EV is going to be more favorable to Edwards, yeah. The question is if it's typically counted first like in many states, or if there's no particular pattern to it.
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« Reply #31 on: November 16, 2019, 07:40:51 pm »
« Edited: November 16, 2019, 07:56:10 pm by Oryxslayer »

I think it's pretty much a given that the EV is going to be more favorable to Edwards, yeah. The question is if it's typically counted first like in many states, or if there's no particular pattern to it.

If I recall from the  primary, there is no particular trend. Louisiana EV is treated as a separate category of votes in parishes rather then being joined to precinct or counted before hand in secrecy like in some states. Some parishes released it first, others, notably Lafayette, released it last. Historically the EV is more republican than the day of vote, and historically the GOP under-preforms their combined primary vote, but we will see if history holds up.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #32 on: November 16, 2019, 07:44:16 pm »

I think it's pretty much a given that the EV is going to be more favorable to Edwards, yeah. The question is if it's typically counted first like in many states, or if there's no particular pattern to it.

If I recall from the  primary, there is no particular trend.  EV is treated as a separate category of votes in parishes rather then being joined to precinct or counted before hand in secrecy. Some  parishes released it first, others, notably Lafayette, released it last. Historically the EV is more republican than the day of vote, and historically the GOP under-preforms their combined primary vote, but we will see if history holds up.

I think ED will be more Republican than EV because of the college football effect that probably was what made ED more Dem than EV in the primary.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #33 on: November 16, 2019, 08:00:27 pm »
« Edited: November 16, 2019, 08:09:32 pm by You're Still Going to Vote for Biden »



this is at 5PM, btw
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Fremont Speaker Roblox
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« Reply #34 on: November 16, 2019, 08:13:26 pm »

Gonna switch my prediction last minute to a narrow Edwards win, like 51-49 or something. Early vote #'s and that New Orleans turnout report are encouraging. I still wouldn't be surprised if he lost though.
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LCameronOR
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« Reply #35 on: November 16, 2019, 08:15:57 pm »

Gonna switch my prediction last minute to a narrow Edwards win, like 51-49 or something. Early vote #'s and that New Orleans turnout report are encouraging. I still wouldn't be surprised if he lost though.
My final call is ~JBE +3.
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« Reply #36 on: November 16, 2019, 08:22:05 pm »


So using the AntiWoodbury de-skewing technique, JBE will get 55% of the vote! Sweet.
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« Reply #37 on: November 16, 2019, 08:22:47 pm »

My actual final call is that JBE falls just short of 53%.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #38 on: November 16, 2019, 08:33:24 pm »

i really dont see how that NoLa turnout and this can both be true...

https://decisiondeskhq.com/louisiana-exclusive-poll-of-the-electorate/
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« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2019, 08:37:37 pm »

DDHQ will have an interactive precinct map that isn't under a paywall like NYT:

https://decisiondeskhq.com/louisiana-governor-live-precinct-results/
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2019, 08:42:53 pm »

I think JBE wins, but by a small margin. Prob 1 to 2 points.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #41 on: November 16, 2019, 08:45:27 pm »


Glory Be to Miles(?)!
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President Griffin
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« Reply #42 on: November 16, 2019, 08:47:40 pm »



this is at 5PM, btw

Do we know if this was 20% higher than the total October turnout, or 20% higher than it was at the same time in October?

In the case of the former, this might not be as good news for JBE as it seems: if this is indicative of very high turnout all across the state (1.7m+ voters), then Rispone would benefit more from that in my opinion. I think JBE's sweet spot in terms of maximizing his margins is somewhere around the 1.4-1.5m voter mark.
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Minute Maid Juice
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« Reply #43 on: November 16, 2019, 08:48:37 pm »

Here it is lads, the final major race for the rest of the year! After today, the next big election is November 3 2020!
If you asked me a few weeks ago on who would win, I would have said Rispone by 5, but after KY, I am moving it to pure tossup.
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #44 on: November 16, 2019, 08:54:40 pm »

+2.5 jbe
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #45 on: November 16, 2019, 08:55:24 pm »



this is at 5PM, btw

Do we know if this was 20% higher than the total October turnout, or 20% higher than it was at the same time in October?

In the case of the former, this might not be as good news for JBE as it seems: if this is indicative of very high turnout all across the state (1.7m+ voters), then Rispone would benefit more from that in my opinion. I think JBE's sweet spot in terms of maximizing his margins is somewhere around the 1.4-1.5m voter mark.
He said he expected turnout to go from 38 to 46 overall, which may indicate the former. Not positive though. Regardless, I would add that Couvillion said turnout reports indicate slightly above average Eday turnout overall.
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LCameronOR
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« Reply #46 on: November 16, 2019, 08:56:33 pm »

10 minutes. Grab a beer and take a seat. This is going to be a wild night.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #47 on: November 16, 2019, 08:57:45 pm »

3 mins left.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #48 on: November 16, 2019, 08:58:46 pm »

2 minutes left.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #49 on: November 16, 2019, 08:59:14 pm »

1 MINUTE LEFT!
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