Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[lfromnj]

+2.5 jbe

[lfromnj]

yeah rispone probably has this

1.3% is in....

1.3% of PRECINTS are fully in but most of the EV is in and its about 25% of the total vote?

[lfromnj]

Anyway its still too early to tell as the EV is mostly in but NOLA yet, kinda dissapointing early vote in Caddo though if I had to say., JBe got a better  raw vote margin in his home county with half the population. If JBE does lose it could be because of Shreveport.

[lfromnj]

WHY ISN'T ORLEANS REPORTING

Big cities always take longer.

Then why can Jefferson or Baton rouge report even though they are smaller

Im calling DEM MACHINE VOTER FRAUD
/s

[lfromnj]

Just heard on WWL that JBE is getting *99%* of the African-American vote statewide, which is, uh, troubling for Rispone.

probably just some claim to exaggerate it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/
Even moore got like atleast 2-4% lol.

[lfromnj]

So when does JBE actually take the lead?

Just now

[lfromnj]

Go over any rural county
Almost all the precints are won
1/2 of Orleans
2/3 of Jefferson
2/3 of Caddo are still out.
2/3 of Baton Rouge.
pretty good for JBE at this point

[lfromnj]

Even Free Republic knows its over lol: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3794370/posts?q=1&;page=121

Yup. Another loss for Trump. National media will be chortling over his defeat.

Like 80% of the first page when I loaded it was people talking about voter fraud, not only for LA but also KY. They can't seem to understand why people would vote one way for a governor and the other way for most of the other races.

How utterly pathetic and ignorant.

I mean I can't understand in Wisconsin

[lfromnj]

How's this race looking? Who is most likely to win at this point?

Almost certainly JBE the only remaining GOP area is St Tammany, all the rural parishes are done.

[lfromnj]

I was ALMOST EXACTLY RIGHT,
+2.5 JBE vs +2.67

[lfromnj]

Louisana is really weird in how many independents it elects.

[lfromnj]

IIRC one indy voted against the abortion ban so he's pretty liberal.

[lfromnj]

I compared JBE's overperformance from 2016 in each parish compared to that of the state as a whole (which was 22.24%). That is, it's a comparison of what he actually got vs. what he "should" have gotten had there been a uniform swing. The results were wild.

https://i.imgur.com/0ovnq9P.png

So Edwards did worse, relatively speaking, than Clinton in much of rural LA. That is... not what I was expecting. At all.

Like before or after the primary?
After the primary it was pretty clear.

[lfromnj]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

Rispone or JBE?

[lfromnj]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

Seems very random how well he held up in Shreveport (Caddo/Bossier).

Its urban and swung D from 2012 to 2016?
Why not.

[lfromnj]

Although the weirder trend is Lafayette parish considering it swung towards Clinton in 2016.