Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread (user search)
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  Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread  (Read 43614 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: November 16, 2019, 04:54:19 PM »
Any word on turnout so far?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2019, 05:17:00 PM »
Do individual parishes have a reporting bias? For example by counting the early vote first.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2019, 06:48:49 PM »
Is anyone going to answer my question?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2019, 07:05:01 PM »
I think it's pretty much a given that the EV is going to be more favorable to Edwards, yeah. The question is if it's typically counted first like in many states, or if there's no particular pattern to it.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2019, 10:37:34 PM »
Edwards takes the lead with a new NOLA vote dump.

About half the precincts left are in NOLA and EBR. Unless the rest are very Republican, he should be fine.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2019, 11:21:13 PM »
Cameron finished. All outstanding precincts are in parishes JBE won by >65%.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2019, 11:27:38 PM »
NOLA is done. Edwards finished just below 90%. Statewide margin at 40K.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2019, 11:49:22 PM »
Quote from: Still couldn't quell the Bel on November 16, 2019, 11:40:08 PM
Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

There probably isn't much more than 4K total votes left there, so very unlikely.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2019, 12:05:01 AM »
JBE's performance in the largest parishes compared to DK's benchmarks (the one in the comments that corrects for the obvious ceiling in NOLA):

EBR: EVEN
Jefferson: EVEN
Orleans: -2
St. Tammany: -1
Caddo: +1
Lafayette: EVEN
Calcasieu: +1
Ouachita: +5
Livingston: -2
Rapides: +2
Ascension: EVEN
Tangipahoa: +1
Bossier: +1
Terrebonne: -2
Lafourche: -3

Overall was +1, of course, since it was calibrated for a 50/50 outcome.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2019, 12:55:23 AM »
I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2019, 01:02:47 AM »
Quote from: soundchaser on November 17, 2019, 12:58:43 AM
Quote from: Mangez des pommes ! on November 17, 2019, 12:55:23 AM
I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

Depends on the bill — for a social issue like abortion (hypothetically, of course, since Edwards is pro-life), probably wouldn’t be too tough. For something like cutting TOPS or redistricting? Never gonna happen.

Not on Medicaid either then, I assume. Very good to know.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2019, 02:37:42 AM »
Quote from: BP1202 on November 17, 2019, 01:59:58 AM
I compared JBE's overperformance from 2016 in each parish compared to that of the state as a whole (which was 22.24%). That is, it's a comparison of what he actually got vs. what he "should" have gotten had there been a uniform swing. The results were wild.

https://i.imgur.com/0ovnq9P.png

So Edwards did worse, relatively speaking, than Clinton in much of rural LA. That is... not what I was expecting. At all.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2019, 02:45:23 AM »
Well I didn't get into the weeds of the primary map. My bad I guess, but this is still pretty surprising.
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