Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Adam Griffin]

Anyone have any parish benchmarks to look for in a close race?

Surely there are some in the Twitterverse somewhere.

However, if the polls are generally accurate/reflective of the expected margin and overarching trends (loss of D support in rural areas; suburban areas becoming more D) apply to at least some extent, then it's hard seeing JBE winning without Jefferson Parish being in the high 50s. I don't even know how possible it is, but EBR probably needs to be very close to 70%.

JBE keeping it close (single digits) in Lafayette would be a very good sign, while also holding onto Calcasieu. If JBE is losing Ouachita by more than 10, I'd be worried (by more than 20, it's probably over).

[Adam Griffin]

I'm going to do my best tonight to keep a spreadsheet by parish with somewhat live updates showing the swings compared to 2015, both in table & map form:

Map/Table, LA-Gov 2015-2019 County Swing Etc

I'll feed parish-by-parish data into the table and map every 15 minutes or so once results start flowing in reliably.

[Adam Griffin]

Quick question on St Tammany-why is it so different from Jefferson? They are both fast growing suburban NOLA parishes-why is Jefferson trending D and STE not? Education level?

Probably not the articulate answer it deserves, but there's a gigantic lake separating the two that hedges St Tammany from the urban/metro sprawl of NOLA. I'm sure that was also an attractive feature for the first waves of suburban growth to the area, which meant it attracted fundamentally different types of suburbanites than Jefferson (which I believe has also always had some natural black communities throughout it).

[Adam Griffin]

What time do the resuts start coming in>

Polls close at 9 PM Eastern; it may be another 30 minutes or so before any meaningful results start pouring in, so ~3 hours from now I'd say.

[Adam Griffin]

DDHQ will have an interactive precinct map that isn't under a paywall like NYT:

https://decisiondeskhq.com/louisiana-governor-live-precinct-results/

Glory Be to Miles(?)!

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/WestleyBayas/status/1195825076026925057

this is at 5PM, btw

Do we know if this was 20% higher than the total October turnout, or 20% higher than it was at the same time in October?

In the case of the former, this might not be as good news for JBE as it seems: if this is indicative of very high turnout all across the state (1.7m+ voters), then Rispone would benefit more from that in my opinion. I think JBE's sweet spot in terms of maximizing his margins is somewhere around the 1.4-1.5m voter mark.

[Adam Griffin]

Y'ALL READY FOR THIS

[Adam Griffin]

Any idea how long until the first precinct reports?

Good rule of thumb in most states is "nothing meaningful less than 30 minutes after polls close", but we'll probably get a few individual precincts (and/or a few parish EV vote dumps) prior to that.

[Adam Griffin]

2015-2019 swing map (as of NYT data; as of 9:44 PM ET):



See my sig for live-ish data stream.

[Adam Griffin]

As of 9:58 ET:

[Adam Griffin]

Half of what's outstanding is in Orleans, EBR & Caddo

[Adam Griffin]

57% of outstanding precincts are in Orleans, EBR & Caddo

[Adam Griffin]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

[Adam Griffin]

2 Masters
0 English classes

[Adam Griffin]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

Suburban LA is very conservative on social issues too

And JBE did absolutely nothing to offend their sensibilities.

[Adam Griffin]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

What makes you think being pro-gun and pro-life only matters to rural voters? It's a big part of why JBE is winning in the suburbs tonight

The difference in the suburbs between 2015 and tonight is built off of a large cohort of GOP-DEM converts who didn't vote for JBE 4 years ago and who don't really care about all of that to the same extent; they're mostly post-Trump former GOP exiles. More than anything, these types are "anti-gun" in the way you look at them.

Let's also not forget that black voters are likely responsible for a hefty portion of this, considering JBE is only outperforming his 2015 margins in a handful of suburban areas (Jefferson - & Tammany by a hair).

[Adam Griffin]

When I'm right about 2020 I'll look like a genius

And when you’re not you’ll become a massive punchline here

I will be right . I understand politics better than anyone on here.

The 2019 governor elections are an absolute disaster for Trump and the Republicans. That's not really an arguable point.

So how will President Fartbag and his spin machine spin this one?

"R**** RISPONE was down by 80 points before my rally last night! I came in and did what I could, but he was just too far behind. Should've asked for my help sooner!!"

[Adam Griffin]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

What makes you think being pro-gun and pro-life only matters to rural voters? It's a big part of why JBE is winning in the suburbs tonight

The difference in the suburbs between 2015 and tonight is built off of a large cohort of GOP-DEM converts who didn't vote for JBE 4 years ago and who don't really care about all of that to the same extent; they're mostly post-Trump former GOP exiles. More than anything, these types are "anti-gun" in the way you look at them.

Let's also not forget that black voters are likely responsible for a hefty portion of this, considering JBE is only outperforming his 2015 margins in a handful of suburban areas (Jefferson - & Tammany by a hair).

Then why did they vote for Republicans in every other race tonight?

Because nobody knows any of those other downballot losers and no-names.

[Adam Griffin]

215 out of 248 precincts remaining are in Orleans & EBR

[Adam Griffin]

As of 10:52 PM ET:

[Adam Griffin]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

What makes you think being pro-gun and pro-life only matters to rural voters? It's a big part of why JBE is winning in the suburbs tonight

The difference in the suburbs between 2015 and tonight is built off of a large cohort of GOP-DEM converts who didn't vote for JBE 4 years ago and who don't really care about all of that to the same extent; they're mostly post-Trump former GOP exiles. More than anything, these types are "anti-gun" in the way you look at them.

Let's also not forget that black voters are likely responsible for a hefty portion of this, considering JBE is only outperforming his 2015 margins in a handful of suburban areas (Jefferson - & Tammany by a hair).

Then why did they vote for Republicans in every other race tonight?

Because nobody knows any of those other downballot losers and no-names.

Ok, but you were literally just saying suburban voters voted for JBE because they're exiles from the GOP who have lost their connection to it.

For top-ticket and/or "polarized" races, they are Dems now effectively. Old habits die hard: plenty of examples of people who have abandoned the GOP in federal and/or top-ticket statewide campaigns who still voted GOP downballot in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019...

[Adam Griffin]

85% of outstanding precincts are in Orleans.

[Adam Griffin]

3/60 precincts are outside EBR/Orleans (2 in Cameron & 1 in St James)

[Adam Griffin]

As of 11:23 PM ET

49 precincts are outstanding (1 in St James; remainder is EBR & Orleans)

[Adam Griffin]

Orleans, 2015: JBE 86.53% (8.21% of statewide vote)
Orleans, 2019: JBE 89.80% (8.49% of statewide vote)

Jefferson, 2015: JBE 50.64% (8.55% of statewide vote)
Jefferson, 2019: JBE 56.97% (8.41% of statewide vote)

JBE basically netted 26-27k out of these two counties just on their increased share of statewide vote and/or increased support of him. He currently leads by around 40k.