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  If Trump wins in 2020, does the GOP have a chance of winning again in 2024?
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Author Topic: If Trump wins in 2020, does the GOP have a chance of winning again in 2024?  (Read 924 times)
CTConservative
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« on: November 16, 2019, 04:24:10 pm »

Do they? I think there's a chance but it would have to be a really good candidate.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2019, 07:27:49 pm »

Unlikely, because Pence would be the presumptive nominee and he would probably have an even bigger suburban problem between his stricter social views and lack of businessman cred.  It would take a really great economy to put him over the line.   
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dw93
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2019, 09:33:08 pm »

If the Democrats couldn't eek out an electoral win in 2000 or 2016, the GOP won't have a chance in 2024 after two terms of Trump.
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TheFonz
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« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2019, 10:22:59 pm »

If the Democrats couldn't eek out an electoral win in 2000 or 2016, the GOP won't have a chance in 2024 after two terms of Trump.

Good point. With such charismatic figures as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, how could they lose?
Honestly, if they run DeSantis with someone like Joni Ernst, they'd have a solid chance of pulling it off. Or Haley, I guess, though Ernst would make a stronger VP
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2019, 10:26:55 pm »

I mean, anything's possible, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
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Jeff Sessions Hack
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« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2019, 12:28:32 am »

There's always a chance. A very minuscule chance.
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2019, 08:52:59 am »

There's always a chance. A very minuscule chance.

So you are saying there's a chance?
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dw93
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« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2019, 10:09:34 pm »

If the Democrats couldn't eek out an electoral win in 2000 or 2016, the GOP won't have a chance in 2024 after two terms of Trump.

Good point. With such charismatic figures as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, how could they lose?
Honestly, if they run DeSantis with someone like Joni Ernst, they'd have a solid chance of pulling it off. Or Haley, I guess, though Ernst would make a stronger VP

Gore had a good economy and peace abroad, Clinton in 2016 could at least say the economy was better than it was in 2008 and even 2012 and while the situation abroad in 2016 wasn't ideal, it hadn't gotten worse that it was when Obama took office. If the GOP after two terms of Trump doesn't have that in 2024 and a Dukakis level weak Democratic nominee to run against, they'll lose.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2019, 02:27:29 am »

Very unlikely. There’s no issue today like crime in 1988.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2019, 04:55:13 am »

They've got a shot but they'll be the underdogs given the tendency to vote against third terms for political parties and the likelihood the 2024 nominee will have to defend some bad stuff.

Their best opportunity would be Democrats going too far left and advocating for unpopular positions.
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2019, 03:43:25 pm »

Very unlikely. There’s no issue today like crime in 1988.

Immigration? With that said, still Safe D.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2019, 11:51:53 am »

Sure. McCain was leading out of the conventions in 2008 despite the catastrophe that was the Bush administration's second term.
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Beef
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2019, 01:06:44 pm »

If Trump wins in 2020, the national fatigue would be palpable by 2024.

Injecting a bit of opinion here: Having forced out all checks on his personal whims and horrible decisions, and having gotten away with gross abuse of power in Ukraine, and given his overconfidence in his abilities and power and his lack of understanding of law and government, a second Trump term will see him getting more and more dangerous. Eventually Republicans will need to find a way to either constrain him or remove him. That, or continue to concoct stranger and stranger narratives to apologize for him. All of that adds up to complete disaster in 2022 and 2024.

I said in 2016 that the GOP would be better off if Trump lost, and I stand by that. A Trump re-election will be catastrophic for them in the long term.
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angusjt
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2019, 12:24:54 am »

If Texas is in play the Republicans would have to take resources out of other states in order to play defence. Any pathway for Republican victory in 2024 will be slim and the loss of the 41 electoral votes in Texas would essentially mean game over, but even if they retained it, the lower amounts of campaigning thrown to states like Wisconsin and North Carolina could hurt them incredibly.

I personally believe Trump will be re-elected if he goes up against Biden or Warren, but will be succeeded by a Democrat regardless of whether he wins in 2020, or goes up against another Democrat.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2019, 02:17:00 pm »

Sure. McCain was leading out of the conventions in 2008 despite the catastrophe that was the Bush administration's second term.

Is there anyone capable of getting those numbers today?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2019, 02:09:32 pm »

I would say a Republican is more likely to defeat a Dem incumbent in 2024 than win a 3rd Republican term.  The possibility of economic trouble during 2021-25 is very significant. 
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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2019, 10:32:57 pm »

If the Democrats couldn't eek out an electoral win in 2000 or 2016, the GOP won't have a chance in 2024 after two terms of Trump.

Good point. With such charismatic figures as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, how could they lose?
Honestly, if they run DeSantis with someone like Joni Ernst, they'd have a solid chance of pulling it off. Or Haley, I guess, though Ernst would make a stronger VP
Gore had a good economy? Starting Q2'00, the economy was thinning.

Gore had a good economy and peace abroad, Clinton in 2016 could at least say the economy was better than it was in 2008 and even 2012 and while the situation abroad in 2016 wasn't ideal, it hadn't gotten worse that it was when Obama took office. If the GOP after two terms of Trump doesn't have that in 2024 and a Dukakis level weak Democratic nominee to run against, they'll lose.
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2019, 10:45:27 pm »

If the Democrats couldn't eek out an electoral win in 2000 or 2016, the GOP won't have a chance in 2024 after two terms of Trump.

Good point. With such charismatic figures as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, how could they lose?
Honestly, if they run DeSantis with someone like Joni Ernst, they'd have a solid chance of pulling it off. Or Haley, I guess, though Ernst would make a stronger VP

Gore had a good economy and peace abroad, Clinton in 2016 could at least say the economy was better than it was in 2008 and even 2012 and while the situation abroad in 2016 wasn't ideal, it hadn't gotten worse that it was when Obama took office. If the GOP after two terms of Trump doesn't have that in 2024 and a Dukakis level weak Democratic nominee to run against, they'll lose.

Pretty much. And it wasn't just that. HW was much more moderate than Reagan despite being more or less cut from the same cloth. What would a socially and fiscally moderate yet culturally conservative Republican look like (the entire Sanchez spiel about being pro-life but not wanting abortion to be illegal, being OK to a point with more wealth redistribution but really wants immigration PERIOD to be stopped and there to be fewer limits about how police catch criminals and solve crimes) besides how Trump himself was sold by moderate European Trump trolls to Atlas in October 2016?  

So you really need 3 things-

1) Someone like Trump who at least appears to be more moderate in BOTH temperament and policy
2) A "technocratic" Democratic opponent to take indefensible stances on culture war issues
3) At least a 2016 situation where we are better off than we were 8 years ago or a 2000 situation where 60% of the country is OK with what is going on.

You could say that in 2000 and 2016, Republicans won because they avoided issue 2 by running a populist who could appear to be very conservative and yet in the middle at the same time which made them both hard to attack and left the incumbent party open to unconventional attack vectors.
You could even say that Dukakis ran a great campaign by improving 12 points against Mondale but that voters just weren't ready.

That's another interesting observation- when was the last time a party won a 3rd term when they didn't win the first or second by more than 10% of PV?  
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2019, 06:34:15 pm »

If the Democrats couldn't eek out an electoral win in 2000 or 2016, the GOP won't have a chance in 2024 after two terms of Trump.

Good point. With such charismatic figures as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, how could they lose?
Honestly, if they run DeSantis with someone like Joni Ernst, they'd have a solid chance of pulling it off. Or Haley, I guess, though Ernst would make a stronger VP

Gore had a good economy and peace abroad, Clinton in 2016 could at least say the economy was better than it was in 2008 and even 2012 and while the situation abroad in 2016 wasn't ideal, it hadn't gotten worse that it was when Obama took office. If the GOP after two terms of Trump doesn't have that in 2024 and a Dukakis level weak Democratic nominee to run against, they'll lose.

Pretty much. And it wasn't just that. HW was much more moderate than Reagan despite being more or less cut from the same cloth. What would a socially and fiscally moderate yet culturally conservative Republican look like (the entire Sanchez spiel about being pro-life but not wanting abortion to be illegal, being OK to a point with more wealth redistribution but really wants immigration PERIOD to be stopped and there to be fewer limits about how police catch criminals and solve crimes) besides how Trump himself was sold by moderate European Trump trolls to Atlas in October 2016?  

So you really need 3 things-

1) Someone like Trump who at least appears to be more moderate in BOTH temperament and policy
2) A "technocratic" Democratic opponent to take indefensible stances on culture war issues
3) At least a 2016 situation where we are better off than we were 8 years ago or a 2000 situation where 60% of the country is OK with what is going on.

You could say that in 2000 and 2016, Republicans won because they avoided issue 2 by running a populist who could appear to be very conservative and yet in the middle at the same time which made them both hard to attack and left the incumbent party open to unconventional attack vectors.
You could even say that Dukakis ran a great campaign by improving 12 points against Mondale but that voters just weren't ready.

That's another interesting observation- when was the last time a party won a 3rd term when they didn't win the first or second by more than 10% of PV?  

Teddy Roosevelt 1904, and he actually got a >10% margin winning the 3rd term.
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jaichind
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« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2019, 07:59:32 pm »

Unlikely.  There will almost certainly be an economic slowdown between 2021-2024 if Trumps in 2020 the Dems are very likely to win in 2024
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2019, 08:11:29 pm »

If the Democrats couldn't eek out an electoral win in 2000 or 2016, the GOP won't have a chance in 2024 after two terms of Trump.

Good point. With such charismatic figures as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, how could they lose?
Honestly, if they run DeSantis with someone like Joni Ernst, they'd have a solid chance of pulling it off. Or Haley, I guess, though Ernst would make a stronger VP

Gore had a good economy and peace abroad, Clinton in 2016 could at least say the economy was better than it was in 2008 and even 2012 and while the situation abroad in 2016 wasn't ideal, it hadn't gotten worse that it was when Obama took office. If the GOP after two terms of Trump doesn't have that in 2024 and a Dukakis level weak Democratic nominee to run against, they'll lose.

Pretty much. And it wasn't just that. HW was much more moderate than Reagan despite being more or less cut from the same cloth. What would a socially and fiscally moderate yet culturally conservative Republican look like (the entire Sanchez spiel about being pro-life but not wanting abortion to be illegal, being OK to a point with more wealth redistribution but really wants immigration PERIOD to be stopped and there to be fewer limits about how police catch criminals and solve crimes) besides how Trump himself was sold by moderate European Trump trolls to Atlas in October 2016?  

So you really need 3 things-

1) Someone like Trump who at least appears to be more moderate in BOTH temperament and policy
2) A "technocratic" Democratic opponent to take indefensible stances on culture war issues
3) At least a 2016 situation where we are better off than we were 8 years ago or a 2000 situation where 60% of the country is OK with what is going on.

You could say that in 2000 and 2016, Republicans won because they avoided issue 2 by running a populist who could appear to be very conservative and yet in the middle at the same time which made them both hard to attack and left the incumbent party open to unconventional attack vectors.
You could even say that Dukakis ran a great campaign by improving 12 points against Mondale but that voters just weren't ready.

That's another interesting observation- when was the last time a party won a 3rd term when they didn't win the first or second by more than 10% of PV?  

Teddy Roosevelt 1904, and he actually got a >10% margin winning the 3rd term.

Didn't the last person that was alive in 1904 recently die? Secondly, didn't this happen because he ran on the progenitor platform for Cold Warrior New Dealers?
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dw93
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« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2019, 11:55:08 pm »

If the Democrats couldn't eek out an electoral win in 2000 or 2016, the GOP won't have a chance in 2024 after two terms of Trump.

Good point. With such charismatic figures as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, how could they lose?
Honestly, if they run DeSantis with someone like Joni Ernst, they'd have a solid chance of pulling it off. Or Haley, I guess, though Ernst would make a stronger VP
Gore had a good economy? Starting Q2'00, the economy was thinning.

Gore had a good economy and peace abroad, Clinton in 2016 could at least say the economy was better than it was in 2008 and even 2012 and while the situation abroad in 2016 wasn't ideal, it hadn't gotten worse that it was when Obama took office. If the GOP after two terms of Trump doesn't have that in 2024 and a Dukakis level weak Democratic nominee to run against, they'll lose.

 Unemployment was still at a 30 year low, and the economy was still significantly better than it was in 1992. The effects of the 2000 stock market crash really weren't felt until the recession hit in spring 2001, so there was a perception that things were still good in 2000. Heck, the market crash of 87 didn't stop 41 from winning in 88.
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nerd73
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« Reply #22 on: December 06, 2019, 06:27:30 pm »

Didn't the last person that was alive in 1904 recently die? Secondly, didn't this happen because he ran on the progenitor platform for Cold Warrior New Dealers?

Kane Tanaka was born in 1903 and is still alive at 116.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #23 on: December 06, 2019, 08:21:40 pm »

Possibly. It would be hard if history tells us anything.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #24 on: December 07, 2019, 06:43:32 am »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 06:56:29 pm by Cory Booker »

No, Gavin Newsom would run and beat Cruz, Rand Paul or Rubio
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