CNN/Des Moines Register-IA: Buttigieg 25, Warren 16, Biden 15, Sanders 15

[President Johnson]

Just wow, Mayor Pete is having a moment. The big question is what happens after New Hampshire. If he can't increase his support from African Americans, he's having trouble to get the nomination.

This poll is definitely not good for Joe Biden, Liz Warren and Bernie Sanders alike.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Surprisingly good poll for Buttigieg.

[Lord Halifax]

I am buying a lot of „Buttigieg wins IA and NH“ shares right now.

Austrian betting markets are still pretty clueless and behind time about his surge, so the odds are still 1:10 or something ...

What are they called? Can foreigners use them?

[cvparty]

oh my...

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't get why people like Buttigieg beyond surface-level reasons. He's a panderer with no principles but can string together sentences nicely. He's basically the successful version of what Beto was. Particularly now, I don't see why he's surging in Iowa, was it the debate or is it just ground game late effect? Everybody campaigns in Iowa and this race has otherwise been very stable so it's quite puzzling to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buttigieg is a Veteran who served in military and he is the youngest person left on stage, that's why people like him

[SInNYC]

I don't get why people like Buttigieg beyond surface-level reasons. He's a panderer with no principles but can string together sentences nicely. He's basically the successful version of what Beto was. Particularly now, I don't see why he's surging in Iowa, was it the debate or is it just ground game late effect? Everybody campaigns in Iowa and this race has otherwise been very stable so it's quite puzzling to me.

My understanding is that Buttigieg has been dropping heavy advertising dollars in IA, though I guess we wont find out the actual dollars for a while.

The question of course is whether its better to spend now or get a late surge after the new year.  For less known names like Buttigieg, he probably needs to get his recognition up now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa, not the South was Biden's freiwal, now Biden wants to cling to AA support in SC, and didnt do nothing for AA as far as jobs, when he was Veep, and said racially insensitive remarks about Busing; as a result, I am glad Buttigieg is leading, and California is golden for him, too.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't get why people like Buttigieg beyond surface-level reasons. He's a panderer with no principles but can string together sentences nicely. He's basically the successful version of what Beto was. Particularly now, I don't see why he's surging in Iowa, was it the debate or is it just ground game late effect? Everybody campaigns in Iowa and this race has otherwise been very stable so it's quite puzzling to me.

The thing is that Mayor Pete's not just an empty suit, he's the real deal.  Also, while he's had some good debates before (and not a single bad one thus far), he basically took all comers to the woodshed (including Warren, he absolutely wiped the floor with her during their exchanges on healthcare) during the last debate.  He was the clear winner by a country mile and he's got the best temperament, debating skills, the most charisma, understanding of public policy (well, that one may be a tie with Warren), and has been more effective at communicating a brighter vision for the future than anyone else running.  He's also clearly one of the smartest guys in the race; I mean, the man has a truly remarkable grasp of the issues whatever one thinks of him.  

Frankly, for a self-declared ideas candidate, I think Warren has been very dishonest - and I say that as someone who generally really likes her - about healthcare, certainly far more so than Buttigieg.  Every time someone asks her how she's gonna pay for it, she obfuscates and dissembles like a middle schooler caught in a lie.  And she still can't answer Buttigieg's question about why she opposes a Medicare for all who want it approach.  And speaking as someone who'd choose to stay on private insurance despite supporting the creation of a public option available to all Americans, that's a question I want answered.  I think everyone is entitled to basic healthcare at the very least, but I also like my current healthcare just fine, thank you very much, and I don't want some Senator with an ideological axe to grind taking it away from me.

Is Buttigieg being honest about everything?  I'm sure he's not, but he's no worse than anyone except Sanders in that respect (Sanders, it must be said, is at least being significantly more honest about healthcare than Warren).  What folks on Atlas have to remember is that Atlas mainstream is still well to the left of the Democratic primary electorate.  There's still a significant market for a reliably liberal/progressive/whatever candidate who is 1) not a socialist, 2) not in their 70s, and 3) generally comes across as being pretty reasonable.

TL;DR: Buttigieg's like a liberal version of what Reagan did in 1980 with Morning in America and there are many Americans - myself among them - who think that sounds pretty d*** good after the anarchy of the Trump administration.  You may or may not like it and folks supporting other candidates clearly don't like it, but many people consider that a compelling vision for the future and not because we're stupid, but because we have a different assessment of him than you do.  You look at him and see a phony panderer.  Fair enough.  But Buttigieg supporters look at him and see a guy who talks like a preacher because he goes to church every Sunday, if you see what I mean.  Unlike Beto, Mayor Pete is the real deal; the substance is there as much as it is with any other serious candidate in the race.

[Mopsus]

Buttigieg is a Veteran who served in military

He’s a veteran because he served in the military. I like veterans who DIDN’T serve in the military.

[Smash255]

Need to see more polling to see if he is really building a lead this large, but the momentum is clearly on his side and is surging.

[SN2903]

I think Klobuchar or Bloomberg will surge soon

[Sir Mohamed]

My confidence Buttigieg will win IA grows by the day. I've saying this for some weeks now, it feels a little like 2008. I think he'll win IA in an upset with Warren 2nd and Biden/Sanders in 3rd and 4th place, respectively. Both will do poorly, though Biden maintains a chance to get the nomination. Sanders will be done after NH.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Warren, Sanders, or Buttigieg wins IA and NH, on 2/27 and 3/3 all the Southern primaries vote on Super Tuesday, where Biden in today's polling is a 45%. Its pretty much a done deal, Biden will have enough delegates to secure nomination.

[bilaps]

 And speaking as someone who'd choose to stay on private insurance despite supporting the creation of a public option available to all Americans, that's a question I want answered.  I think everyone is entitled to basic healthcare at the very least, but I also like my current healthcare just fine, thank you very much, and I don't want some Senator with an ideological axe to grind taking it away from me.

Yeah right. How's your healthcare going to be taken away from you?

[Gustaf]

Does a majority of Iowa Democratic primary voters think Sanders is too leftwing? Lol, that's pretty bad.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa is a purple state, it's not a left wing state and it's a battleground state in the 2020 election; as a result, Sanders and Warren are making the mistake that it will automatically vote for them. It wont.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Outstanding poll!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

 And speaking as someone who'd choose to stay on private insurance despite supporting the creation of a public option available to all Americans, that's a question I want answered.  I think everyone is entitled to basic healthcare at the very least, but I also like my current healthcare just fine, thank you very much, and I don't want some Senator with an ideological axe to grind taking it away from me.

Yeah right. How's your healthcare going to be taken away from you?

If private health insurance is completely abolished then I'll be forced to go on poorer quality government care.  If I can afford better quality care then I should be able to get it as long as everyone has access to basic healthcare so no one has to choose between stuff like potentially dying of an easily treatable disease and financial ruin.  Why should I have to go on poorer quality government care that I don't want when I can afford to pay for better quality private health insurance that I am more than happy with?  This is why I prefer Buttigieg's medicare for all who want it approach. 

Now maybe there's a good reason to abolish the private insurance industry which is firmly rooted in concrete policy rather than ideological dogma and if so, I'm all ears.  However, Warren has yet to clearly articulate such a reason and failed miserably in her attempt to respond to Buttigieg's excellent question about why she doesn't trust the American people to decide for ourselves between a public option and private health insurance.  Moreover, I've asked several Warren and Bernie supporters this very question on Atlas in genuine good-faith and no one has even bothered trying to answer it.  What am I supposed to make of that?  Because I'll tell you this, it sure doesn't inspire confidence if even their own supporters can't defend their policies effectively.  Honestly, Warren's abysmal handling of this issue in the last debate was really what pushed me firmly from undecided into the Buttigieg camp.

I'm fine with paying significantly higher taxes so other people can access a public option, but I don't want the government forcing me to use one when I have no complaints about my current private health insurance.

[NOVA Green]

This is consistent to what we have seen with swings among Millennial College Voters among other places....

Although it may well be temporary and oversampling, I seem to recall posting on multiple polling posts in IA and NH about 3-4 Months back about how early polling of these States would not make sense until College Students returned back....

At that time, my assumption was that these voters would more likely gravitate towards Sanders, because of DEM '16 PRIM History.

It appears that Mayor Pete may have at least cracked through among the first two States, now that the "College Kids are Back in Town"....

Still, it could also simply be a factor of a large number of DEM Voters shifting around, trying to pick their horse in the race, while meanwhile a few individual candidates may have been targeting a few early states looking for a breakthrough with money to follow later....