NY-21 Battle: Tedra Cobb Raises $800K+

[wbrocks67]

Tedra Cobb is challenging Elisa Stefanik again in 2020, and due to Stefanik's antics this week, Tedra has been fundraising quite a bit, reaching over $800K this week.

Stefanik won against Cobb 56-44 in 2018, but Gillibrand won this district as well. Stefanik is clearly no 'moderate' anymore, so I could see this race being competitive next year. It's not out of the realm of possibility.

Kind of odd for Stefanik to go full MAGA when she only won by 12. This ain't no R+30 seat.

https://twitter.com/TedraCobb/status/1196097106181787649

[Roll Roons]

It went from Obama +6 to Trump +14, and there's no indication that it's getting any bluer.

[wbrocks67]

It went from Obama +6 to Trump +14, and there's no indication that it's getting any bluer.

Once again though, Gillibrand won, so voters who went Obama-Trump are clearly willing to vote for Democrats.

It remains to be seen if the voters there thought Stefanik was going to be more moderate or if this district is going full-MAGA like she is.

[Gracile]

It went from Obama +6 to Trump +14, and there's no indication that it's getting any bluer.

Once again though, Gillibrand won, so voters who went Obama-Trump are clearly willing to vote for Democrats.

It remains to be seen if the voters there thought Stefanik was going to be more moderate or if this district is going full-MAGA like she is.

NY-21 swung to Donald Trump by 20 points after relatively moderate GOP candidate Mitt Romney lost here. A majority of this district voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Stefanik has nothing to lose by veering to the right, and if anything continuing to play moderate hero would be far more detrimental if she were to get a primary challenge.

[DINGO Joe]

As someone else noted in another thread, that part of Upstate can be a little quirky and prone to wild swings, so it's within the realm of possible.  And since Stefanik has chosen to go from Harvard educated to ignorant Trump humper, she deserves any sh**t that can be piled on top of her.  Endorsed.

[Xing]

In a district that Republican-leaning and getting more Republican, Stefanik has no reason to run as a “moderate.” Republicans seem to understand that this isn’t what wins elections, and base turnout is crucial. This race is still Safe R, unless some huge scandal about Stefanik breaks.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah, Stefanik is too strong of an incumbent. That being said, if she retires to become a Fox News host/runs for something down the line, it is on paper a competitive race, with far northern New York being kind of swingy. Lean/Likely R, emphasis on Likely without Stefanik and Safe R with her.

[Skye]

I don't think she's quite 'Safe' since this is a pretty quirky section of the state. But come on, Clinton got, like, what, 40% of the vote here? And Stefanik won easily last year. This is a very uphill climb for the Dem candidate.

[Frenchrepublican]

It went from Obama +6 to Trump +14, and there's no indication that it's getting any bluer.

Once again though, Gillibrand won, so voters who went Obama-Trump are clearly willing to vote for Democrats.

It remains to be seen if the voters there thought Stefanik was going to be more moderate or if this district is going full-MAGA like she is.

Rob Portman won OH13th in 2016, so Ryan is  vulnerable ? Right ?

[Tekken_Guy]

It went from Obama +6 to Trump +14, and there's no indication that it's getting any bluer.

Trump won Anthony Brindisi’s seat by +16.

[Zaybay]

This area of NY is rather interesting. It swung hard to Trump, but then shed a good amount of GOP registration. It trended towards the Ds in the senatorial race but gave Stefanik double digits(the only GOP congressmember in NY to attain such a victory). Im 85% sure Stefanik wins, but it will be interesting to see the swings.

[We Live in Black and White]

NY-21 is history for us. Here pretty soon, Stefanik will be way too moderate for it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Northern New York isn't an ideologically right-wing place at all (with the exception of the horrible Glens Falls area) but it's very rural and has low formal educational attainment; in the current alignment those sorts of things matter more than a candidate's or a voter's Issues stances, so Stefanik will be fine.

[Brittain33]

Stefanik’s biggest asset was the absence of a target on her back. She really did not need a wel-funded challenger. She would have cruised to re-election if she hadn’t gone all in for Trump lies this week.

[lfromnj]

This area of NY is rather interesting. It swung hard to Trump, but then shed a good amount of GOP registration. It trended towards the Ds in the senatorial race but gave Stefanik double digits(the only GOP congressmember in NY to attain such a victory). Im 85% sure Stefanik wins, but it will be interesting to see the swings.

Its an ancestrally Republican Obama Trump district
Seriously though only one Democrat has ever represented the 3 northern counties.

[Tekken_Guy]

Stefanik‘s seat is slightly bluer than Anthony Brindisi’s. If he can win, so can Cobb.

That being said, Stefanik is still most likely going to win. I say she wins by less than 10. Likely R.

[free my dawg]

Stefanik’s biggest asset was the absence of a target on her back. She really did not need a wel-funded challenger. She would have cruised to re-election if she hadn’t gone all in for Trump lies this week.

On the other hand, this is a very Trumpy district.

[Frenchrepublican]

It went from Obama +6 to Trump +14, and there's no indication that it's getting any bluer.

Trump won Anthony Brindisi’s seat by +16.

Well, had Claudia Tenney not insulted people of Italian backgrounds (who are numerous in Oneida county), she would still be in the House.

Besides don't assume that 2020 will be as much D friendly than 2018 was, especially in areas with a lot of non college whites

[Continential]

Tedra Cobb is more #populist then Stefanik

https://twitter.com/TedraCobb/status/1196167314925916166

[Pericles]

Not quite Safe R but pretty close to it.

[voice_of_resistance]

If Brindisi could win in 22, it's certainly not impossible. That being said, Stefanik is too strong of an incumbent. An open seat would be Likely R, but this is probably Safe.

[Yellowhammer]

Yawn. Safe R.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Guys, Beto raised $70 million!!! He's got this in the bag

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why people here are so quick to write off races, even as other races in the past have surprised us. There's no reason to think this is safe R. Not really any reason to believe Stefanik is a "safe, strong" incumbent either.

Cobb raised $1 million+, meanwhile

https://twitter.com/TedraCobb/status/1196238026864812035

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Not sure why people here are so quick to write off races, even as other races in the past have surprised us. There's no reason to think this is safe R. Not really any reason to believe Stefanik is a "safe, strong" incumbent either.

Cobb raised $1 million+, meanwhile

https://twitter.com/TedraCobb/status/1196238026864812035

It's a really simple reason, same as with so many other districts trending the opposite way. It voted for Trump by an easy 14 points, he'll be on the ballot again in 2020, and Stefank won 54-42 in 2018, a blue wave. Safe R, and anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. The #Resistance crowd needs to learn not every place is just some hidden progressive bastion.