North Carolina Congressional Races

[Vern]

Now that NC has a new map, its time to talk about who is gonna run!

[eb782]

I am still trying to figure out if the new map is set in stone or not. but apparently this new map makes George Holding(R) and Mark Walker(R) far more vulnerable electorally in their current districts.

[Ebsy]

Holding is almost certainly going to retire, while Walker seems to be vowing to fight to the end Keith Rothfus style.

[Oryxslayer]

It's not set in stone yet, the court will still weigh in.

[Vern]

Walker could run in the 13th if he wanted to. But we will see. But if the courts do change it, I don't think they will change that map too much. So we kinda have a good idea of what it will look like.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Walker would have a good chance in the 13th, Randolph and Alamance are pretty populous and some of his home turf. He'd also have good financial backing, unlike Budd.

[Tekken_Guy]

Holding will probably retire.

Walker may carpetbag. If Foxx retires (she’s 76) I could see McHenry running in the 5th and Walker in the 10th.

[Vern]

It will be interesting to see who will run in the new democratic districts. Also, does any one see the 8th or 9th being winnable for Ds?

[Gracile]

The maps are not final, but Holding is pretty much a goner under any circumstance as most of the fair maps have Wake County in heavily Democratic districts.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

I did my best to approximately recreate the map in DRA 2020.



If this is finalized, Democrats would easily pick up districts 2 and 6.

(Bright red and dark blue signify 10+ point victories for either party. The brick color represents a 5-9.99 win for the republican).

[Storr]

It will be interesting to see who will run in the new democratic districts. Also, does any one see the 8th or 9th being winnable for Ds?

The 8th is R+5, the 9th R+7. The 8th could be winnable in a "blue wave" in 2020 for Democrats with a good candidate and if Cabarrus County continues to trend D. With all of Cumberland County (Fayetteville) and Cabarrus County (northeastern Charlotte suburbs, which have trended D lately unlike its southern neighbor Union County), the 8th is more likely to flip than the 9th which has South Charlotte and heavily R suburban Union County as its population base.

[Sol]

I wonder if Jay Chaudhuri would run in the new 2nd--he's pretty high up in the House Democratic caucus and has a certain "rising star" potential. Also seems like a very nice guy.

[Vern]

I wonder if Jay Chaudhuri would run in the new 2nd--he's pretty high up in the House Democratic caucus and has a certain "rising star" potential. Also seems like a very nice guy.

That would be awesome!

[Tintrlvr]

Holding is almost certainly going to retire, while Walker seems to be vowing to fight to the end Keith Rothfus style.

Rothfus was at least given a district that, in theory, should be winnable for a Republican, just he was paired with a strong Democratic incumbent. Walker's new district is Safe D from the get-go.

[Virginiá]

I'd love for the court to slap the new map down just for the blatant shenanigans that still went on, but this at least a map I can live with considering that it's only going to be used for one election. It would be an instant D+2 pickup, with a remote shot at a 3rd if it's a big wave year for Democrats.

The fact is, the brain trusts in the Democratic Party, in their infinite wisdom, neglected to challenge the Congressional map right after the legislative maps were overturned. It led to this (very) last minute lawsuit to overturn it, leaving almost no time for a court to properly address the matter, and created a possible incentive to settle for a compromise that still partially addresses the issue but doesn't create problems for the 2020 primaries.

If Democrats end up having to eat the GOP's new gerrymander-lite because there is not enough time to continue litigating this issue, they only have themselves to blame.

[Gracile]

A three-judge moves to delay candidate filing:

https://twitter.com/mel_bough/status/1197280022479933440

[Horus]

I'd guess Kathy Manning will run in the Greensboro district, she did alright last year.