Rate WI-3 for 2020

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Currently represented by Ron Kind.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Republicans won't put as much effort here as they should, and with Trump on the ballot, it's not flipping in 2020. Maybe in a 2022 midterm with a DEM president.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D. Totally underrated opportunity here. This district was Trump +4, so it votes almost identical to the three competitive Iowa districts everyone thinks are toss-ups, but this is Likely or Safe D? As Jeb! once said, give me a break.

[Gass3268]

Safe D until there is a legit Republican running.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Lean D. Totally underrated opportunity here. This district was Trump +4, so it votes almost identical to the three competitive Iowa districts everyone thinks are toss-ups, but this is Likely or Safe D? As Jeb! once said, give me a break.

All the seats (save IA-02) in Iowa were within single digits. Kind won by almost 20 points. Likely D is the most GOP-friendly this seat will be for a while unless Kind retires or 2022 is a DEM midterm.

[Tekken_Guy]

Likely D. Another district where the GOP has no bench. It can flip in 2022 if Trump loses.

[Xing]

While I definitely expect Kind to have a closer call this time around, Likely D. It doesn't seem like Republicans are really investing in this race, and I'd be surprised if Kind didn't overperform the Democratic candidate by at least several points.

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely D until republicans decide to target this seat seriously

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D. Totally underrated opportunity here. This district was Trump +4, so it votes almost identical to the three competitive Iowa districts everyone thinks are toss-ups, but this is Likely or Safe D? As Jeb! once said, give me a break.

All the seats (save IA-02) in Iowa were within single digits. Kind won by almost 20 points. Likely D is the most GOP-friendly this seat will be for a while unless Kind retires or 2022 is a DEM midterm.

The problem is if we go by the margin of the last election then almost none of the 43 pickups (3 seats flipped Republican) Democrats got should've even been close, because many were 20+ point R wins and most were 10+ R wins in 2016. In a presidential election, where Trump will at least barely lose this district, there is a stronger relationship between House and presidential voting than the margin of the last House election, relatively. Case in point, districts that swung massively Republican from 2012 to 2016 (OH-06, PA-17, MI-05 to list a few) at the presidential level also swung Republican from 2014 despite Republicans doing several points worse in 2016. In 2018, there is an even stronger case, as suburban D-trending districts voted much closer to Trump's margin than the 2016 house number. That is why I'm certain this district will be closer than the 20 point margin it was last time, even with a similar D+8 national margin.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Lean D. Totally underrated opportunity here. This district was Trump +4, so it votes almost identical to the three competitive Iowa districts everyone thinks are toss-ups, but this is Likely or Safe D? As Jeb! once said, give me a break.

All the seats (save IA-02) in Iowa were within single digits. Kind won by almost 20 points. Likely D is the most GOP-friendly this seat will be for a while unless Kind retires or 2022 is a DEM midterm.

The problem is if we go by the margin of the last election then almost none of the 43 pickups (3 seats flipped Republican) Democrats got should've even been close, because many were 20+ point R wins and most were 10+ R wins in 2016. In a presidential election, where Trump will at least barely lose this district, there is a stronger relationship between House and presidential voting than the margin of the last House election, relatively. Case in point, districts that swung massively Republican from 2012 to 2016 (OH-06, PA-17, MI-05 to list a few) at the presidential level also swung Republican from 2014 despite Republicans doing several points worse in 2016. In 2018, there is an even stronger case, as suburban D-trending districts voted much closer to Trump's margin than the 2016 house number. That is why I'm certain this district will be closer than the 20 point margin it was last time, even with a similar D+8 national margin.

Regardless of the national environment, the GOP has a very, very crappy bench right now for this seat. Even if it's not 20 points again, I don't see how he does any worse than winning by 15+.

[lfromnj]

Lean D. Totally underrated opportunity here. This district was Trump +4, so it votes almost identical to the three competitive Iowa districts everyone thinks are toss-ups, but this is Likely or Safe D? As Jeb! once said, give me a break.

All the seats (save IA-02) in Iowa were within single digits. Kind won by almost 20 points. Likely D is the most GOP-friendly this seat will be for a while unless Kind retires or 2022 is a DEM midterm.

The problem is if we go by the margin of the last election then almost none of the 43 pickups (3 seats flipped Republican) Democrats got should've even been close, because many were 20+ point R wins and most were 10+ R wins in 2016. In a presidential election, where Trump will at least barely lose this district, there is a stronger relationship between House and presidential voting than the margin of the last House election, relatively. Case in point, districts that swung massively Republican from 2012 to 2016 (OH-06, PA-17, MI-05 to list a few) at the presidential level also swung Republican from 2014 despite Republicans doing several points worse in 2016. In 2018, there is an even stronger case, as suburban D-trending districts voted much closer to Trump's margin than the 2016 house number. That is why I'm certain this district will be closer than the 20 point margin it was last time, even with a similar D+8 national margin.

Regardless of the national environment, the GOP has a very, very crappy bench right now for this seat. Even if it's not 20 points again, I don't see how he does any worse than winning by 15+.

They dont have a crappy bench. They even control a clinton rock island based seat.

[jamestroll]

Its likely to safe Democratic next year. If anything driftless seems to have been moving back to the Democrats since the 2016 election
 It may not hold next year but I would not be shocked if Trump manages to lose this district next year if he is being defeated handily overall.

Next decade will be interesting around here obviously. Wisconsin is a special place

[Yellowhammer]

Lean D. Totally underrated opportunity here. This district was Trump +4, so it votes almost identical to the three competitive Iowa districts everyone thinks are toss-ups, but this is Likely or Safe D? As Jeb! once said, give me a break.

All the seats (save IA-02) in Iowa were within single digits. Kind won by almost 20 points. Likely D is the most GOP-friendly this seat will be for a while unless Kind retires or 2022 is a DEM midterm.

The problem is if we go by the margin of the last election then almost none of the 43 pickups (3 seats flipped Republican) Democrats got should've even been close, because many were 20+ point R wins and most were 10+ R wins in 2016. In a presidential election, where Trump will at least barely lose this district, there is a stronger relationship between House and presidential voting than the margin of the last House election, relatively. Case in point, districts that swung massively Republican from 2012 to 2016 (OH-06, PA-17, MI-05 to list a few) at the presidential level also swung Republican from 2014 despite Republicans doing several points worse in 2016. In 2018, there is an even stronger case, as suburban D-trending districts voted much closer to Trump's margin than the 2016 house number. That is why I'm certain this district will be closer than the 20 point margin it was last time, even with a similar D+8 national margin.

Regardless of the national environment, the GOP has a very, very crappy bench right now for this seat. Even if it's not 20 points again, I don't see how he does any worse than winning by 15+.

They dont have a crappy bench. They even control a clinton rock island based seat.

Rock Island is in Illinois, this discussion is about Wisconsin.