GA-UGA: Biden +8, Sanders +4, Warren/Buttigieg +3, Harris +1

[Bacon King]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

Do you have a source for this? Not calling you a liar but in the past whenever the exit polls have oversampled/undersampled someone, they've always retroactively reweighted the published results of the exit poll itself to correct their mistake. It would be very unusual if they did not do so in this situation as well.

[Gone to Carolina]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

Do you have a source for this? Not calling you a liar but in the past whenever the exit polls have oversampled/undersampled someone, they've always retroactively reweighted the published results of the exit poll itself to correct their mistake. It would be very unusual if they did not do so in this situation as well.

Both the Center for American Progress and Pew in their post-election analysis found a much lower percentage of the electorate being college-educated than indicated in the 2016 Exit Polls.

CAP

Pew

Specifically looking at Non-College White's share of the electorate nationally by the different measures.

45% - Center for American Progress

44% - Pew

34% - 2016 Exit

[Gone to Carolina]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

The real figures for 2020 likely will be closer to 2016 exit poll figures than 2018 figures. First, there's a pretty solid track record of college graduates making up more than 40-45% of the electorate in a presidential year that goes back well beyond 2016 (irrespective of past debates over whether "working class" people were undersampled). Also, there are age discrepancies at work that naturally reduce the percentage of midterm voters who are college grads.

Color me skeptical that midterm turnout differentials benefit non-college educated voters. I recall 538 finding that the opposite is in fact true.



It seems this trend held true in 2018, as at least per the Fox / University of Chicago Exits had 42% of the electorate being college-educated. Given past trends, it seems likely 2020's electorate will be slightly less college-educated than 2018's. 

[Adam Griffin]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

The real figures for 2020 likely will be closer to 2016 exit poll figures than 2018 figures. First, there's a pretty solid track record of college graduates making up more than 40-45% of the electorate in a presidential year that goes back well beyond 2016 (irrespective of past debates over whether "working class" people were undersampled). Also, there are age discrepancies at work that naturally reduce the percentage of midterm voters who are college grads.

Color me skeptical that midterm turnout differentials benefit non-college educated voters. I recall 538 finding that the opposite is in fact true.



It seems this trend held true in 2018, as at least per the Fox / University of Chicago Exits had 42% of the electorate being college-educated. Given past trends, it seems likely 2020's electorate will be slightly less college-educated than 2018's. 

Admittedly there is a lot of conflicting data surrounding the education of voters at-large, but the chart above would suggest that there's a relatively small difference between the educational attainment of voters and non-voters, which contradicts a lot of other observations made via exit polls, polling and surveys in general.

[Frenchrepublican]

The crazy thing is that this poll is giving Perdue a 49/31 approval rate. How can he be so popular in a such D friendly poll ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls are great for Dems, we can win alot of the states we picked off in 2008-12:wave yrs

[Annatar]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

The real figures for 2020 likely will be closer to 2016 exit poll figures than 2018 figures. First, there's a pretty solid track record of college graduates making up more than 40-45% of the electorate in a presidential year that goes back well beyond 2016 (irrespective of past debates over whether "working class" people were undersampled). Also, there are age discrepancies at work that naturally reduce the percentage of midterm voters who are college grads.

Midterm electorates are always more educated because less educated voters tend to stay home in midterms. In 2018 for example this was how turnout varied by education according to the Census Bureau.

High School Graduate: 42.1%
Some College: 54.7%
Bachelor Degree: 65.7%
Advanced Degree: 74%

In a presidential year, the rate won't rise much for bachelor's or advanced because it is already so high, they will rise for less educated voters. In 2018 college voters made up 43% of all voters, that figure will be lower in 2020. 

From 2016 -2018, according to the US Census Bureau, turnout fell by 18% among high school graduates in relative terms from 51.5% to 41.2%, 14% among voters with some college, 11.5% among voters with a Bachelor's degree and 7.9% among voters with an Advanced Degree.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-583.html

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html

[tagimaucia]

The crazy thing is that this poll is giving Perdue a 49/31 approval rate. How can he be so popular in a such D friendly poll ?

I think there are tons of suburbanites, particularly women, in Georgia who aren't all that ideological (but at least tend to be moving meaningfully to the left of the modern Republican party on cultural issues) and are fine with a "generic" Republican who doesn't make too many waves (at least that they are aware of) but absolutely hate Trump and his perceived boorishness/stupidity and will almost certainly vote against him or stay home in 2020. The gap between the presidential horserace and Purdue's approval probably isn't quite this wide in reality, but as someone who grew up in the Atlanta suburbs it's not crazy to me that there'd be a big one.

[QAnonKelly]

It’s probably just bc Perdue mostly keeps his head down. Other than the lying about the sh**thole comment, he pretty much stays in the background. If you keep up with politics, you know how he is but the average Jane/Joe doesn’t. A lot of it will come out during the election but for now he’s good

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is almost certainly too D-friendly, but it doesn’t change the fact that this state is a ticking time bomb for the GOP and Republican overconfidence about GA is just as unwarranted as Democratic overconfidence about PA in 2016. It’ll be "too inelastic" until it’s not.

Georgia is a powder keg.

Texas is a thermonuclear bomb.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is almost certainly too D-friendly, but it doesn’t change the fact that this state is a ticking time bomb for the GOP and Republican overconfidence about GA is just as unwarranted as Democratic overconfidence about PA in 2016. It’ll be "too inelastic" until it’s not.

Georgia is a powder keg.

Texas is a thermonuclear bomb.

I would say AZ is the powder keg, GA is the land mine

Which is why I am saying it will be good for the GOP in the long run to lose in 2020. Begin the rebuilding process right now rather than wait till that bomb goes off cause once that bomb goes off well rebuilding will take some time and they will face a similar period in the wilderness as the Democrats did in the 1980s .

[Tintrlvr]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

The real figures for 2020 likely will be closer to 2016 exit poll figures than 2018 figures. First, there's a pretty solid track record of college graduates making up more than 40-45% of the electorate in a presidential year that goes back well beyond 2016 (irrespective of past debates over whether "working class" people were undersampled). Also, there are age discrepancies at work that naturally reduce the percentage of midterm voters who are college grads.

Color me skeptical that midterm turnout differentials benefit non-college educated voters. I recall 538 finding that the opposite is in fact true.



It seems this trend held true in 2018, as at least per the Fox / University of Chicago Exits had 42% of the electorate being college-educated. Given past trends, it seems likely 2020's electorate will be slightly less college-educated than 2018's.  

Admittedly there is a lot of conflicting data surrounding the education of voters at-large, but the chart above would suggest that there's a relatively small difference between the educational attainment of voters and non-voters, which contradicts a lot of other observations made via exit polls, polling and surveys in general.

Not necessarily: There are factors other than educational attainment at play, in particular age. Educational attainment is much higher among younger people (say, ages 26-35, done with college and maybe grad school but still young) than among older people (65+), but voter turnout among older people is much higher than younger people. Controlling for age, educational attainment is a huge factor in turnout. But, when not controlling for age, that's not the case, as a highly educated young person is less likely to vote than a low-education older person. Age explains why polls show the more educated a person is, the more likely they, holding their other characteristics constant, are to vote, yet more educated people and less educated people vote at about the same rate overall.

To some degree, race (and national origin), sex and income play into the equation as well, but age is the overwhelming other factor.

[Alben Barkley]

Even if oversampling Democrats, an 8 point Biden lead leaves plenty of room for margin of error. This state would legitimately he competitive with him as the nominee.