Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 12, 2019, 05:57:06 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20  (Read 1121 times)
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,833
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 18, 2019, 03:05:12 pm »

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/sc/sc11182019_snzm94.pdf/

Likely Voters
Biden: 33
Warren: 13
Sanders: 11
Buttigieg: 6
Steyer: 5
Yang: 4
Harris: 3
Booker: 2
Logged
amdcpus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 291

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2019, 03:09:35 pm »

I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,346
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2019, 03:11:18 pm »

I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate.

He just needs the 200k donors which I imagine he'll get. Also Yang is now only one poll away.
Logged
Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,287
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2019, 03:30:22 pm »

Buttigieg is at 11% with white voters and 0% with black voters.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,999
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2019, 03:31:31 pm »

Buttigieg is at 11% with white voters and 0% with black voters.

Roll Eyes
Logged
marty
boshembechle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,436


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2019, 03:32:26 pm »

I understand the sentiment that you donít want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance?
Logged
Georgia Is A Swing State
RFKFan68
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,361
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2019, 03:39:13 pm »

I understand the sentiment that you don’t want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance?
Why are y'all so intent on pushing her out of the race? Like... shouldn't this comment be reserved for Booker who is below her and is probably not going to qualify for the December debates?
Logged
Laki
Lakigigar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,925
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2019, 03:41:37 pm »

I understand the sentiment that you donít want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance?
She should drop out.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,420
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2019, 03:42:51 pm »

Black voters might really be the nail in the coffin to the Buttigieg campaign even if he posts IA and NH wins. It's still an open question whether he can substantially improve with them or not, but these numbers certainly aren't encouraging.
Logged
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,991
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2019, 03:47:19 pm »

I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate.

No, he's actually quite far from the fundraising threshold. This poll does qualify Yang, though (and I think it's the strongest poll he's gotten out of SC, period).

Gabbard is still one poll away and still needs to hit the fundraising threshold (though unlike Steyer she's close to it and probably won't struggle).

Booker has no qualifying polls and is far from the threshold; I think he quits sometime around Thanksgiving.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,601
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2019, 03:52:26 pm »

Black voters might really be the nail in the coffin to the Buttigieg campaign even if he posts IA and NH wins. It's still an open question whether he can substantially improve with them or not, but these numbers certainly aren't encouraging.

The Dems compacted primaries so close together, that there wont be enough time for Warren, Buttigieg or Sanders to get a bounce after IA and NH. The primaries are 1 month apart.  Jan 3rd would of goven Candidates more time
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,309


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2019, 04:09:20 pm »

What's interesting is that white voters are 14% more likely to say they are paying "a lot" of attention to the race than Black voters - it stands to reason that Biden could see a slide similar to what he experienced in Iowa and New Hampshire if Black voters move away from him the way White voters have as they became more immersed in the race, a very big if.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,343
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 18, 2019, 04:20:26 pm »

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/sc/sc11182019_snzm94.pdf/

Likely Voters
Biden: 33
Warren: 13
Sanders: 11
Buttigieg: 6
Steyer: 5
Yang: 4
Harris: 3
Booker: 2


Also:
Klobuchar 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Castro, Delaney, Messam, Bennet, Bullock, Sestak, Patrick 0%

Patrick debuts at 0%, and Bloomberg wasnít included as an option.
Logged
Mr. Morden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,343
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2019, 04:26:20 pm »

white, w/ college degree:
Biden 22%
Warren 18%
Buttigieg 14%
Sanders 8%
Steyer 8%
Gabbard 5%

white, w/ no college degree:
Biden 22%
Warren 16%
Sanders 14%
Yang 10%
Buttigieg 9%
Steyer 5%

black:
Biden 44%
Sanders 10%
Warren 8%
Harris 6%
Steyer 4%
Booker 2%

city:
Biden 31%
Sanders 14%
Warren 12%

suburb:
Biden 28%
Warren 18%
Sanders 13%

rural:
Biden 39%
Warren 11%
Sanders 7%

This poll does qualify Yang, though (and I think it's the strongest poll he's gotten out of SC, period).

No, Yang still needs one more poll for December.
Logged
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,332
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2019, 05:54:51 pm »

Why are you rolling your eyes? It's a fact.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,601
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2019, 06:07:02 pm »

Good polls for Biden
Logged
Speaker OneJ
OneJ_
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 18, 2019, 06:21:16 pm »


Same thing I was thinking, lol.
Logged
wbrocks67
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,071
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 18, 2019, 06:29:04 pm »

Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,601
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2019, 07:39:33 pm »

Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc

The Prmaries are almost over, once the Holidays are upon us, and Feb and Marh primaries, Biden will be the presumptive nominee 😎😎😎😎
Logged
Torranski
Torrain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,112
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2019, 10:21:34 am »

Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc

Harris' campaign is clearly on a downward spiral, and is short enough on cash, that a cannier candidate would likely start to consider a tactical departure and immediate endorsement (likely of Warren, given their shared political history).

That's not to say that I don't want most of the candidates you mentioned to drop out. It's just that I think that if a candidate like Steyer is running a vanity campaign, it's a lot harder to get them to drop out, especially if they still have an effective funding apparatus.

Some candidates leave because of money, while others need to taste defeat in IA and NH before they drop out.

I think Harris could be persuaded by her aides to leave, in order to protect political capital, while candidates like Steyer, Yang and Gabbard will need to be resoundly defeated in order to make them consider leaving the race.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,268


Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 21, 2019, 10:33:41 am »

Biden will win the south pretty easily. I don't see any other candidate that could take the minority vote away from him, unless Harris or Booker suddenly became viable like Obama in 2008. There is no sign of that happening.
Logged
DINO Tom
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,821
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2019, 10:50:53 am »

The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,569


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2019, 10:53:46 am »

The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.

While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example.
Logged
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,822
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2019, 10:58:46 am »

The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.

While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example.

Biden winning Nevada after coming second in both IA and NH (unless he loses them to different candidates, I suppose, but that also seems unlikely) is implausible. At this point, Biden coming second in IA also looks implausible, although who knows.
Logged
DINO Tom
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,821
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2019, 01:42:00 pm »

The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.

While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example.

I mean sure, and tbf he may well come in second in NH (we'll see), but at least right now he's probably looking at a third or even fourth place finish in Iowa.  Obviously, a lot can happen, but I could see a distant third or fourth in Iowa costing him a lot of support from folks who assume he's the only electable candidate and if he then underperforms in NH too (also possible), I don't know that he can recover from the narratives that's gonna create.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC