CA- AAPI Voters are Influential in 2020 D Primaries, Remain Persuadable

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

http://aapidata.com/blog/2020-fav-caprimary/

Thought this may be of interest to Dr. RI and others interested in who Asian voters in CA are supporting. I strongly caution against generalizing these results to the nationwide AAPI electorate. It's worth mentioning that this data is a few months old.

New data from a survey of AAPIs in the state point to a tight contest for support among Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris, with Elizabeth Warren lagging somewhat behind and Andrew Yang struggling with lack of name recognition.

AAPI Data teamed up with PRRI to conduct a recent survey of nearly 2,700 AAPIs in California from July 5 to September 5, 2019.  The survey was conducted by telephone and online with 9 different AAPI national origin groups in five different Asian languages and English. The survey’s findings, which focuses on the lived experiences and opinions of AAPI working adults in California, will be released in mid-November. Here, we report results among the 2,468 eligible voters who took the survey.

Trump favorability among various AAPI ethnicities in CA


Dem favorability among various AAPI ethnicities in CA



Table 1: NET Favorability for 2020 Candidates, AAPI eligible voters in California

Candidate   AAPI Average   Asian Indian   Cambodian   Chinese   Filipino   Hmong   Japanese   Korean   Vietnamese   NHPI Trump   -23   -23   -10   -33   -22   -50   -62   -14   9   -28 Yang   6   8   11   11   3   32   9   5   -4   6 Warren   10   23   12   8   7   12   20   11   0   14 Harris   13   54   17   11   8   -4   22   2   1   13 Sanders   16   32   27   12   20   32   20   22   -4   29 Biden   18   51   31   18   15   9   16   17   1   12

.
.

Table 2: NET Favorability among AAPI Eligible Voters in California

Candidate   AAPI Average   Native Born   Foreign Born      Men   Women Biden   18   18   18      19   17 Sanders   16   30   10      10   22 Harris   13   24   8      13   13 Warren   10   18   6      8   11 Yang   6   13   3      4   8 Trump   -23   -53   -10      -18   -27

.
.

Special notes-

Kamala Harris and Indian American voters:
"Asian Indians gave the highest net favorability for Harris (a fellow Indian American) and Biden, with lower favorability ratings for Sanders, Warren, and Yang."

Andrew Yang and Chinese American voters:
"[Yang's] net favorability was similar across various AAPI groups, with the exception of Hmong Americans where he polled significantly higher, and among Vietnamese Americans where he polled lower. Notably, Chinese Americans were more likely to rank Biden favorably when compared to Yang."

Other AAPIs more supportive of Sanders:
"Filipino Americans seemed to favor Sanders, as did Pacific Islanders and Hmong Americans."

Native-born Asians are generally more liberal than foreign-born Asians, which is reflected in different levels of Sanders vs Biden support.
"Sanders received the highest favorability rating among those AAPIs born in the United States while Biden was most favored among those born outside the U.S."

[eric82oslo]

Almost every living person under the age of 70 in California is already supporting Yang. Just saying.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Buttigieg

[RI]

Looks about how I'd expect given a couple of other polls I've seen. Compared to 2016 results, Trump seems to have increased his popularity with Vietnamese, Koreans, and Indians but hasn't moved much with the Chinese population (all of which makes some sense given Trump's foreign policy actions).

For the primary, most groups seems pretty competitive overall, which doesn't shed a ton of light on how cities and counties might vote, but it suggests that Asian-Americans probably won't be decisive in the primary.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

No Buttigieg

Given the limited space on the survey, we asked favorability of the top 4 presidential candidates in California polling as of July 2019. We added Andrew Yang in the event that English-language surveys of California voters were underestimating his level of support among Asian Americans.

I'm also not sure if Buttigieg will reach out to Asian voters as effectively as Biden, Warren, or Sanders.

Looks about how I'd expect given a couple of other polls I've seen. Compared to 2016 results, Trump seems to have increased his popularity with Vietnamese, Koreans, and Indians but hasn't moved much with the Chinese population (all of which makes some sense given Trump's foreign policy actions).

I think Vietnamese and Korean Americans have a higher GOP floor in general. CA Viets were least supportive of Sanders and Yang, while CA Koreans were least supportive of Harris and Yang.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Almost every living person under the age of 70 in California is already supporting Yang. Just saying.

I assume you are joking

[eric82oslo]

Almost every living person under the age of 70 in California is already supporting Yang. Just saying.

I assume you are joking

LOL. I should have been saying every living person who is actually following politics closely. My bad.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Almost every living person under the age of 70 in California is already supporting Yang. Just saying.

I assume you are joking

LOL. I should have been saying every living person who is actually following politics closely. My bad.

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-november-2019.pdf
So I guess only around 4-5% of Californians who are alive under the age of 70 are actually following politics closely then

[eric82oslo]

Almost every living person under the age of 70 in California is already supporting Yang. Just saying.

I assume you are joking

LOL. I should have been saying every living person who is actually following politics closely. My bad.

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-november-2019.pdf
So I guess only around 4-5% of Californians who are alive under the age of 70 are actually following politics closely then

Probably less, but yeah. If it's even 3%, it's massively amazing to be honest. Especially in a state like California. Only Texas, New Mexico and a handful of other states have lower voter turnout.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Almost every living person under the age of 70 in California is already supporting Yang. Just saying.

I assume you are joking

LOL. I should have been saying every living person who is actually following politics closely. My bad.

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-november-2019.pdf
So I guess only around 4-5% of Californians who are alive under the age of 70 are actually following politics closely then

Probably less, but yeah. If it's even 3%, it's massively amazing to be honest. Especially in a state like California. Only Texas, New Mexico and a handful of other states have lower voter turnout.

turnout in 2016 CA primary was.....48%, it will probably be over 50% this time given how many candidates we have.

[eric82oslo]

Almost every living person under the age of 70 in California is already supporting Yang. Just saying.

I assume you are joking

LOL. I should have been saying every living person who is actually following politics closely. My bad.

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-november-2019.pdf
So I guess only around 4-5% of Californians who are alive under the age of 70 are actually following politics closely then

Probably less, but yeah. If it's even 3%, it's massively amazing to be honest. Especially in a state like California. Only Texas, New Mexico and a handful of other states have lower voter turnout.

turnout in 2016 CA primary was.....48%, it will probably be over 50% this time given how many candidates we have.

We're talking about extremely engaged individuals. That's still 3-4% of the population, sadly.

[Holmes]

No one I know here supports Yang.

[eric82oslo]

No one I know here supports Yang.

All ID please.

[eric82oslo]

No one I know here supports Yang.

None of my friends have heard of a guy named Holmes. So strange. Really.

[Holmes]

No one I know here supports Yang.

None of my friends have heard of a guy named Holmes. So strange. Really.

Not even Sherlock?

[ProudModerate2]

No one I know here supports Yang.

Same for me.

[eric82oslo]

No one I know here supports Yang.

Same for me.

Goes to the trash. Sorry. What else can you do, than reach for the bin?

[eric82oslo]

No one I know here supports Yang.

None of my friends have heard of a guy named Holmes. So strange. Really.

Not even Sherlock?

You didn't give an ID, when asked, so no answer.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Can we all agree eric8soslo's obsession with Yang is kind of creepy?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

It shouldn’t be surprising that Japanese-Americans in California hate Trump.

No one I know here supports Yang.

Same for me.

I saw a Yang sticker on a random car yesterday, but I don’t personally know anyone who supports him.

[Canis]

It shouldn’t be surprising that Japanese-Americans in California hate Trump.

No one I know here supports Yang.

Same for me.

I saw a Yang sticker on a random car yesterday, but I don’t personally know anyone who supports him.

The only people I know who support Yang are not going to be old enough to vote come 2020

[NOVA Green]

Very interesting, despite being a several Month old poll...

It is worth noting that among the Asian population of California the breakdown is roughly the following:

Chinese----   1.4 Million   (25.6% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Filipino----    1.3 Million   (23.5% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Indian----     0.7 Million   (12.4% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Vietnamese-  0.6 Million   (11.8% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Korean---      0.5 Million   (8.6% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Japanese--    0.3 Million   (5.1% of the Asian Population of Cali).

So---- if we look at this within the terms of the Democratic Primaries:

Chinese-American Voters:

1.) Chinese-American Voters are not only the largest slice of the Asian Population of Cali, but quite possibly the largest Asian-American electoral voting block (But quite possibly superseded by Filipino-Americans).

2.) Chinese-American voters in California have historically tended to be one of the most reliable Asian-American voting blocs in California, eclipsed by only Japanese-Americans, and more recently possibly by Indian-Americans.

3.) Roughly 34% of Chinese-Americans in Cali live in Metro SF (Marin, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Mateo)....

4.) Roughly 12% of Chinese-Americans live in Metro San Jose (Santa Clara County).

5.) Roughly 37% of Chinese-Americans live in Metro LA...

Naturally although the community is spread out among a vast Metro Area, there are major concentrations around Pasadena, the San Gabriel Valley, not to mention Irvine.

6.) So based upon this older poll it appears looking at the net FAVs that Biden has a bit of a lead, but Sanders, Harris, and Yang aren't that far behind.

7.) This is a far cry from the '16 DEM Primary where HRC routed Bernie among Asian-American voting precincts in the Bay Area (Including heavily Chinese-American precincts within SF).

Filipino-American Voters:

Filipino-Americans track closest to the average of Asian-Americans in Cali when it comes to partisan affiliation. This is partially because as the inter-marriage with Anglo-Americans and Latino-Americans starting before WW II, and greatly accelerated after the War, created a community that perhaps was a bit more assimilated compared to most other Asian-American populations in California in the '50s/'60s and even into the '70s.

Almost 50% of Filipino-Americans in Cali are concentrated within the Metro Bay-Area and Metro "Sac"....

% of Total Population of Filipino-Americans by County in Cali:

Solano (10.4%), San Mateo (9.6%), Alameda (5.5%), San Joaquin (4.9%), Santa Clara (4.8%), San Diego (4.8%), Contra Costa (4.6%), San Francisco (4.4%), Los Angeles (3.4%)....

Not all Counties are created equal:

Los Angeles County has 27% of the Filipino-American population of Cali, and San Diego County has 12.5% of the total....

1.) Sanders has a decent lead among Filipino-Americans compared to Biden.

2.) It is likely true that part of the reason is that Filipino-Americans are more likely to be younger because of the high percentage of Catholics, as well as inter-marriage with Anglos and Latino populations over the decades, both of which are populations where Bernie performed extremely well in the '16 DEM primaries.

3.) If this holds, I would not be surprised to see Bernie performing extremely well even in Asian-American precincts in the Bay Area, where he was decimated by HRC.

4.) South SF, Hayward, Fremont, and San Jose spring to mind in NorCal, but certainly I would also be looking at places like the City of San Diego, the San Fernando Valley, the East San Gabriel Valley within SoCal for places where Bernie might perform quite well in 2020 DEM Primaries among the Filipino-American electorate.

Indian-American Voters:

This is a much smaller sliver of the Asian-American electorate in Cali than Chinese-Americans or Filipino-Americans.

Although Indian-Americans represent 12.4% of the Asian Population in Cali, they are much likely a smaller segment of the electorate, mainly because there are many foreign-workers within the Tech Sector that have residency and work permits, but are not US citizens, and hence do not have voting rights,

The Indian-American population of California is again heavily concentrated in NorCal....

11% of Sutter County, 8% of Santa Clara County, 6.4% of Alameda County identify as of Indian Ancestry....

Almost 50% of Californians of Indian Ancestry live in either Metro SF or SJ...

Now you have 26% of Indians living in Los Angeles and San Diego....

Although overall, Indian-American voters skew heavily Democratic, and within Cali tend to prefer Biden & Harris over Sanders, this will likely be a much smaller sliver of the DEM PRIM electorate in Cali than the raw Asian-American numbers suggest...

Still, elections are won and lost on the margins....

Vietnamese-American Voters:

Although it is true that this community is much less overwhelmingly Republican than it used to be from even back in the '90s where massive street marches in "Little Hanoi" parts of SoCal celebrated the death of Ho Chi Minh, it is still true that despite the massive precinct swings in '16 within the GE, that registered voters of Vietnamese background tend to be much more heavily Republican or Independent than Democratic, meaning we likely won't see massive numbers shifting the race in the 2020 DEM Primary....

So, the 4th largest Asian-American population in California is likely to have less of an influence in the 2020 DEM Primaries than even the Indian-American population....

The vast majority of Vietnamese-Americans within California are concentrated in a few places within Metro-LA, Metro San Diego and the San Jose Metro Area, with a chunk within metro SF...

Interesting question will be how younger Vietnamese-American voters vote in the 2020 DEM primary, considering that just like the Cuban-American youth, there are profound differences of opinion on major policy items....

Japanese-American Voters:


The most reliably Democratic Asian-American voting bloc for decades, and generally quite established....

I am anticipating that Japanese-American voters within Cali are likely to participate at higher rates than Korean-Americans, Vietnamese-Americans, and even possibly Indian-Americans in the 2020 Democratic Primary in California....

Still, now we are starting to get down to the margins and sub-margins, and really there are only a few places in CA where we might even be able to observe voting patterns of Japanese-American voters....

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Very interesting, despite being a several Month old poll...

It is worth noting that among the Asian population of California the breakdown is roughly the following:

Chinese----   1.4 Million   (25.6% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Filipino----    1.3 Million   (23.5% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Indian----     0.7 Million   (12.4% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Vietnamese-  0.6 Million   (11.8% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Korean---      0.5 Million   (8.6% of the Asian Population of Cali)
Japanese--    0.3 Million   (5.1% of the Asian Population of Cali).

So---- if we look at this within the terms of the Democratic Primaries:

Chinese-American Voters:

1.) Chinese-American Voters are not only the largest slice of the Asian Population of Cali, but quite possibly the largest Asian-American electoral voting block (But quite possibly superseded by Filipino-Americans).

2.) Chinese-American voters in California have historically tended to be one of the most reliable Asian-American voting blocs in California, eclipsed by only Japanese-Americans, and more recently possibly by Indian-Americans.

3.) Roughly 34% of Chinese-Americans in Cali live in Metro SF (Marin, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Mateo)....

4.) Roughly 12% of Chinese-Americans live in Metro San Jose (Santa Clara County).

5.) Roughly 37% of Chinese-Americans live in Metro LA...

Naturally although the community is spread out among a vast Metro Area, there are major concentrations around Pasadena, the San Gabriel Valley, not to mention Irvine.

6.) So based upon this older poll it appears looking at the net FAVs that Biden has a bit of a lead, but Sanders, Harris, and Yang aren't that far behind.

7.) This is a far cry from the '16 DEM Primary where HRC routed Bernie among Asian-American voting precincts in the Bay Area (Including heavily Chinese-American precincts within SF).

Filipino-American Voters:

Filipino-Americans track closest to the average of Asian-Americans in Cali when it comes to partisan affiliation. This is partially because as the inter-marriage with Anglo-Americans and Latino-Americans starting before WW II, and greatly accelerated after the War, created a community that perhaps was a bit more assimilated compared to most other Asian-American populations in California in the '50s/'60s and even into the '70s.

Almost 50% of Filipino-Americans in Cali are concentrated within the Metro Bay-Area and Metro "Sac"....

% of Total Population of Filipino-Americans by County in Cali:

Solano (10.4%), San Mateo (9.6%), Alameda (5.5%), San Joaquin (4.9%), Santa Clara (4.8%), San Diego (4.8%), Contra Costa (4.6%), San Francisco (4.4%), Los Angeles (3.4%)....

Not all Counties are created equal:

Los Angeles County has 27% of the Filipino-American population of Cali, and San Diego County has 12.5% of the total....

1.) Sanders has a decent lead among Filipino-Americans compared to Biden.

2.) It is likely true that part of the reason is that Filipino-Americans are more likely to be younger because of the high percentage of Catholics, as well as inter-marriage with Anglos and Latino populations over the decades, both of which are populations where Bernie performed extremely well in the '16 DEM primaries.

3.) If this holds, I would not be surprised to see Bernie performing extremely well even in Asian-American precincts in the Bay Area, where he was decimated by HRC.

4.) South SF, Hayward, Fremont, and San Jose spring to mind in NorCal, but certainly I would also be looking at places like the City of San Diego, the San Fernando Valley, the East San Gabriel Valley within SoCal for places where Bernie might perform quite well in 2020 DEM Primaries among the Filipino-American electorate.

Indian-American Voters:

This is a much smaller sliver of the Asian-American electorate in Cali than Chinese-Americans or Filipino-Americans.

Although Indian-Americans represent 12.4% of the Asian Population in Cali, they are much likely a smaller segment of the electorate, mainly because there are many foreign-workers within the Tech Sector that have residency and work permits, but are not US citizens, and hence do not have voting rights,

The Indian-American population of California is again heavily concentrated in NorCal....

11% of Sutter County, 8% of Santa Clara County, 6.4% of Alameda County identify as of Indian Ancestry....

Almost 50% of Californians of Indian Ancestry live in either Metro SF or SJ...

Now you have 26% of Indians living in Los Angeles and San Diego....

Although overall, Indian-American voters skew heavily Democratic, and within Cali tend to prefer Biden & Harris over Sanders, this will likely be a much smaller sliver of the DEM PRIM electorate in Cali than the raw Asian-American numbers suggest...

Still, elections are won and lost on the margins....

Vietnamese-American Voters:

Although it is true that this community is much less overwhelmingly Republican than it used to be from even back in the '90s where massive street marches in "Little Hanoi" parts of SoCal celebrated the death of Ho Chi Minh, it is still true that despite the massive precinct swings in '16 within the GE, that registered voters of Vietnamese background tend to be much more heavily Republican or Independent than Democratic, meaning we likely won't see massive numbers shifting the race in the 2020 DEM Primary....

So, the 4th largest Asian-American population in California is likely to have less of an influence in the 2020 DEM Primaries than even the Indian-American population....

The vast majority of Vietnamese-Americans within California are concentrated in a few places within Metro-LA, Metro San Diego and the San Jose Metro Area, with a chunk within metro SF...

Interesting question will be how younger Vietnamese-American voters vote in the 2020 DEM primary, considering that just like the Cuban-American youth, there are profound differences of opinion on major policy items....

Japanese-American Voters:


The most reliably Democratic Asian-American voting bloc for decades, and generally quite established....

I am anticipating that Japanese-American voters within Cali are likely to participate at higher rates than Korean-Americans, Vietnamese-Americans, and even possibly Indian-Americans in the 2020 Democratic Primary in California....

Still, now we are starting to get down to the margins and sub-margins, and really there are only a few places in CA where we might even be able to observe voting patterns of Japanese-American voters....

You forgot Korean Americans haha.

For 2nd gen Chinese and Indian Americans in particular, I think domestic transplants are going to favor Biden due to being somewhat filtered along class and educational lines. Native-born Chinese/Indian Dems from in-state might favor Sanders and Yang a little more.

I don't actually think Filipinos are more supportive of Sanders due to intermarriage and assimilation, although I'll admit I'm not really considering mixed-race individuals in my analysis. Japanese Americans are even more assimilated but don't favor him by such a large margin. I think occupational clustering and socioeconomic class are more important factors explaining Filipino Californian support for Sanders.