Rate CA-21 for 2020

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Located in the Central Valley, this district leans Democratic at a Presidential level. It was a surprise Democratic flip last year. It is overwhelmingly Hispanic. The previous incumbent, David Valadao (R), is running again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_21st_congressional_district

[Xing]

Likely D, and that's being generous to Valadao.

[Gracile]

Where's the Safe D option?

If you're to copy this from LCameron, at least use the same poll format.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Where's the Safe D option?

If you're to copy this from LCameron, at least use the same poll format.

You mean with the recent results and all?

[Gracile]

Where's the Safe D option?

If you're to copy this from LCameron, at least use the same poll format.

You mean with the recent results and all?

Uh, yes? When handicapping races you have to consider the ways in which the electorate will be different from previous elections. Assuming that a given race will be close just because it was close in one election is oversimplifying a whole lot of factors. We have seen many times before that there are considerable discrepancies between how a district votes in a midterm vs. how it votes in a presidential year. Sometimes the whole environment can become so unfavorable to the point that a seat is just not winnable for a party. In CA-21's case, presidential year turnout will be much higher among D-leaning Hispanic voters. TJ Cox also won't be left for dead by the DCCC like he was in 2018, and I think it's naive to assume that Valadao would have an easier time when his opponent is well-funded (and a win for Valadao last year was expected to be easy given those circumstances).

[ElectionsGuy]

This is another case where the last election's margin is not going to be indicative of the next election's margin/competitiveness. But since it's in a way that helps a Democrat, people will agree with me.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Stuck between Lean/Likely, but I'm going with Likely for now.

[BP🌹]

This district is like it was made in a lab to have the worst midterm turnout dynamic for Democrats in the country, and Cox still won.

[Tintrlvr]

Likely D, but if Safe D were an option, I'd vote for that. Valadao should try to challenge Nunes in the jungle primary instead if he wants back in Congress. I bet he could get enough D crossover votes to win.

[DINGO Joe]

Likely D, but if Safe D were an option, I'd vote for that. Valadao should try to challenge Nunes in the jungle primary instead if he wants back in Congress. I bet he could get enough D crossover votes to win.

I don't see how the Rs could get the top two in the district, especially if the D side has basically one candidate.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely D, almost Safe D.

[Tintrlvr]

Likely D, but if Safe D were an option, I'd vote for that. Valadao should try to challenge Nunes in the jungle primary instead if he wants back in Congress. I bet he could get enough D crossover votes to win.

I don't see how the Rs could get the top two in the district, especially if the D side has basically one candidate.

I agree as long as the Democrats are consolidated behind one candidate, but he could edge Nunes out of the runoff, and it's an easy win for the Rs without Nunes (and probably with Nunes, too).

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe D (voted Likely D)

This district is not flipping back anytime soon, even Newsom won it last year and considering that hispanic turnout will be higher next year than in 2018 I don't see how this district could flip back

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup/Tilt D. Valadao is raising more money than Cox, and he's a very strong challenger. He only lost narrowly last year.