WI-Marquette: Trump in the lead

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Here’s a bold prediction: Democrats could absolutely win AZ and GA even if they lose WI. It’s a must-win state only for Republicans.

And people thought the 2016 electoral map was ugly, just wait untill 2020 when we have a blue(red atlas) Georgia enclave sandwiched between a red(blue atlas) North Carolina and Florida.  

Or even an otherwise all blue Eastern seaboard with SC as the only holdout. That’d be so ugly

[Xing]

Here’s a bold prediction: Democrats could absolutely win AZ and GA even if they lose WI. It’s a must-win state only for Republicans.

It's certainly possible, though I do think that if Trump is losing those states AND MI/PA by more than a 1-2% margin, he's not likely to win WI. Democrats have a plausible win map without WI (or MI), but that doesn't mean losing either one wouldn't be quite bad for them.

[OneJ]

Yeah, there's no way Klobuchar is losing in a landslide on her home turf.  Junk.

A good chunk of respondents didn't choose her because she's unknown to many of them.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Impeachment is clearly backfiring

You guys seriously live in an alternative reality

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here’s a bold prediction: Democrats could absolutely win AZ and GA even if they lose WI. It’s a must-win state only for Republicans.

The Convention is in Milwaukee,  that's why the DNC put it there instead of FL, it's a tipping pt state

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Impeachment is clearly backfiring

You guys seriously live in an alternative reality

I don’t know how one can say what our friend sn2903 said with a straight face after Trump just tried to use impeachment to rally his base in two extremely red states and still failed

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Impeachment is clearly backfiring

I'd agree with you if democrats didnt just win in Kentucky and Louisiana.

Bevin was the most unpopular governor in the country and John Bel Edwards fell from a low double-digit win to a low single-digit one. It's not surprising in the least. Republicans picked up other statewide races in KY, MS, and LA. It certainly isn't good for anyone, really.

[cvparty]

Impeachment is clearly backfiring

no, polls are fake duh!!

[Annatar]

Would be hilarious if there was a total acceleration in trends in 2020 with Trump carrying states like WI, MN and MI but losing AZ and maybe even GA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the country realizes on impeachment there is no smoking gun, but dirty money is a problem and both Biden and Trump and all politicians are tied in it. But, Leader McConnell wont do anything about it
278 freiwall is the keys to WH

[538Electoral]

I'd be curious to see a county map of a Trump +14 win here against Klobuchar.

Every county goes to Trump except for Dane, Menominee and Milwaukee.

[Annatar]

This poll is likely accurate insofar as it conforms to the 2018 results. The last Marquette poll before the midterms had trump approval at 47%, the exit polls had him at 48% and Scott Walker got 48.4% of the vote because all the trump approvers voted for him. This poll basically confirms trump’s approval in Wisconsin is where it was in the midterms and Trump will get around 48-49% of the vote were the election held today.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Would be hilarious if there was a total acceleration in trends in 2020 with Trump carrying states like WI, MN and MI but losing AZ and maybe even GA.

MN is more similar to CO than WI/MI.

[Annatar]

Would be hilarious if there was a total acceleration in trends in 2020 with Trump carrying states like WI, MN and MI but losing AZ and maybe even GA.

MN is more similar to CO than WI/MI.

There’s been a discussion on this in another thread but MN is nothing like CO, it if was it wouldn’t have swung 6.1% towards trump in 2016 like the rest of the Midwest but unlike Colorado and trump’s approval wouldn’t have been 46% in the 2018 exit polls in MN.

[pbrower2a]

IF Trump wins Wisconsin he is reelected. Simple is that!

Trump can lose MI & PA which he probably will.

However if he keeps Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and those 2 Districts in Nebraska & Maine he gets 270 Electoral Votes to 268 Electoral Votes.

The polls consistently show Michigan and Pennsylvania as nearly-certain losses for him. Colorado, Maine at-large, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia are seemingly spiraling out of reach.  With one of ME-01 and NE-02 but losing nothing more from 2016 to 2020 except Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump wins because House delegations will decide... and on this, one Congressional Representative from Wyoming means as much than 53 from California.  If Democrats should get a majority of House delegations, then they are winning the Presidency in a landslide.

Trump wins Iowa and Ohio, both of which he must win to have a chance of re-election, if he wins Wisconsin. He must still not lose one of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, and not both of the Second Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska if he is to win.    

[TJ in Oregon]

Yeah, there's no way Klobuchar is losing in a landslide on her home turf.  Junk.

A good chunk of respondents didn't choose her because she's unknown to many of them.

Yeah of all reasons to throw out the poll, this is a very silly one. Of course Klobuchar is losing badly, no one in Wisconsin knows who she is. They might be neighbors but Wisconsin and Minnesota are different states.

[Frenchrepublican]

So Trump is leading by a healthy margin in WI but he is losing GA ?

Are we already in 2028 ?

Virginia is proof states can have very rapid transitions. But I think both states are close and polls a year away aren't all that useful. Hillary was up 15 points in WI in November of 2015 according to Marquette after all. 

Well, it still took 12 years for Virginia to go from a red state (in 2004) to a blue leaning state (in 2016). 
Even in 2016 GA was still a R+7 state, even with D trends I doubt that GA will vote to the left of WI before the second half of the next decade

[Frenchrepublican]

Here’s a bold prediction: Democrats could absolutely win AZ and GA even if they lose WI. It’s a must-win state only for Republicans.

No, not really.

If Trump is winning WI then 2 of the 3 following things are happening
-Trump is doing even better than in 2016 among rural voters, but I don’t see why Trump would improve only among WI rural voters and not among Georgia rural voters. (Keep in mind that Kemp did even better among rural voters than Trump)
-black turnout is lower than expected, it would hurt democrats in WI (Milwaukee) but it would hurt democrats even more in GA
-Trump is improving his numbers in conservative exurbs, (WOW counties but also places like Forsyth and Hall counties)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a Marquette Poll, not a PPP poll and the election is 1 yr away. It just shows that Biden isnt a sure thing and is corrupt like Hilary and Dems shouldn't nominate a corrupt candidate again. Biden should be ahead of Trump

[lfromnj]

>gold standard poll that's really only been wrong one year and immediately fixed that error(education) for 2018 where they were the only poll to nail both statewide races.
Atlas:junk!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think many people need to be cautious about this race. Trump could still hold the rust belt as he did in 2016. I think Biden would have a chance to flip PA, WI, and OH back, but I am not confident Pete, Liz or Bernie could.

[SN2903]

Impeachment is clearly backfiring

You guys seriously live in an alternative reality

RCP average Trump is up from 41% to almost 45% in 3 weeks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Impeachment is boring and wont change any R to vote for conviction

[SN2903]

Impeachment is boring and wont change any R to vote for conviction

100%

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Wisconsin will once again have yuge numbers of voters who hate Trump but vote for him anyway. I thought 2016 was about Hillary, but I'm starting to wonder if his repugnance is a selling point for these people.