Independent redistricting commission in Pennsylvania

[Mr.Phips]

With a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature in this blueish state (although Trump carried it in a fluke in 2016), you would think that PA would be a perfect state where both sides could agree to pass a non-partisan redistricting commission.  Is there any progress being made towards this?

[TML]

It should be noted that 538's Atlas of Redistricting points out that a "proportionally partisan" congressional map for PA would also be the most pro-Democratic gerrymander possible (it would consist of 9 districts apiece favoring both major parties). I wonder if this could be a factor in Republicans' unwillingness to cooperate on this issue...

[Epaminondas]

The facts that

• the median PA House district in 2018 was D+3.5
• 3 GOP districts were won by under 5 points
• all 9 Dem seats appear safe

may also be giving them pause.

[Oryxslayer]

I have not heard any talk about a commission. I have a trusted source saying that there is chatter for something along the lines of a "fair-dem-leaning-incumbent-protection" map in the works though. Essentially the GOP wants to avoid the courts again so they are willing to work with the dems, and give in to several points, in exchange for protecting their own bases. However, there  is a recognition that if they disrupt COIs or disrupt the districts base thene the  map will go right back to the  courts, making the map more 'fair.'

For example, part of this rumor has Doyle retiring to make the SWPA region easier to draw. Lamb is to be gifted Doyle's safe seat based all out of south Allegheny and the city, if he doesn't go statewide. The old 17th remains a 'fair-fight' despite taking on more red territory thanks to Doyle's retirement, him leaving opens up more 90-10 Dem precincts to the east of Pittsburgh for addition to the northern seat.

[politicallefty]

I'm not really optimistic about any future PA map even if it's fairly drawn. Yes, a Republican seat will have to be eliminated, but a lot of other seats are going to move at least a couple points to the right.

Let's look at the 3 close seats from 2018:
-PA-01: Okay, this seat will largely be unchanged. It's still the Bucks County district. It will pick up more swingy and D-leaning territory. It probably moves marginally to the left.
-PA-10: This is a Trump leaning district from the start. With population changes, it will almost certainly lose the city of York and have to take in considerably more Republican territory.
-PA-16: A strong Trump district, but with some considerable Democratic roots. It was close because of the wave, a weak incumbent, and a strong challenger. It has no choice but to expand into  very Republican PA-15. At that point, it's basically off limits for Democrats.

And that's not including PA-17, which will have to move into Butler County and PA-08 that has to move westward to accommodate PA-07 moving northward. Looking at it this way, if I was the PA Republican Party, I'd take my chances with a court-drawn map.

[Boomerberg2020]

I'm not really optimistic about any future PA map even if it's fairly drawn. Yes, a Republican seat will have to be eliminated, but a lot of other seats are going to move at least a couple points to the right.

Let's look at the 3 close seats from 2018:
-PA-01: Okay, this seat will largely be unchanged. It's still the Bucks County district. It will pick up more swingy and D-leaning territory. It probably moves marginally to the left.
-PA-10: This is a Trump leaning district from the start. With population changes, it will almost certainly lose the city of York and have to take in considerably more Republican territory.
-PA-16: A strong Trump district, but with some considerable Democratic roots. It was close because of the wave, a weak incumbent, and a strong challenger. It has no choice but to expand into  very Republican PA-15. At that point, it's basically off limits for Democrats.

And that's not including PA-17, which will have to move into Butler County and PA-08 that has to move westward to accommodate PA-07 moving northward. Looking at it this way, if I was the PA Republican Party, I'd take my chances with a court-drawn map.

I’ll draw a 17 seat PA map later,but as for your points about PA-01,PA-10,and PA-16.
All three seats will most likely become more republican in a incumbent protection map. PA-01 just needs a more republican piece of Montgomery County and that alone could turn it into a +1-3 trump seat.

[Boomerberg2020]

I'm not really optimistic about any future PA map even if it's fairly drawn. Yes, a Republican seat will have to be eliminated, but a lot of other seats are going to move at least a couple points to the right.

Let's look at the 3 close seats from 2018:
-PA-01: Okay, this seat will largely be unchanged. It's still the Bucks County district. It will pick up more swingy and D-leaning territory. It probably moves marginally to the left.
-PA-10: This is a Trump leaning district from the start. With population changes, it will almost certainly lose the city of York and have to take in considerably more Republican territory.
-PA-16: A strong Trump district, but with some considerable Democratic roots. It was close because of the wave, a weak incumbent, and a strong challenger. It has no choice but to expand into  very Republican PA-15. At that point, it's basically off limits for Democrats.

And that's not including PA-17, which will have to move into Butler County and PA-08 that has to move westward to accommodate PA-07 moving northward. Looking at it this way, if I was the PA Republican Party, I'd take my chances with a court-drawn map.

I’ll draw a 17 seat PA map later,but as for your points about PA-01,PA-10,and PA-16.
All three seats will most likely become more republican in a incumbent protection map. PA-01 just needs a more republican piece of Montgomery County and that alone could turn it into a +1-3 trump seat.

I made the map but I don’t know how to post it on here.

[lfromnj]

I'm not really optimistic about any future PA map even if it's fairly drawn. Yes, a Republican seat will have to be eliminated, but a lot of other seats are going to move at least a couple points to the right.

Let's look at the 3 close seats from 2018:
-PA-01: Okay, this seat will largely be unchanged. It's still the Bucks County district. It will pick up more swingy and D-leaning territory. It probably moves marginally to the left.
-PA-10: This is a Trump leaning district from the start. With population changes, it will almost certainly lose the city of York and have to take in considerably more Republican territory.
-PA-16: A strong Trump district, but with some considerable Democratic roots. It was close because of the wave, a weak incumbent, and a strong challenger. It has no choice but to expand into  very Republican PA-15. At that point, it's basically off limits for Democrats.

And that's not including PA-17, which will have to move into Butler County and PA-08 that has to move westward to accommodate PA-07 moving northward. Looking at it this way, if I was the PA Republican Party, I'd take my chances with a court-drawn map.

I’ll draw a 17 seat PA map later,but as for your points about PA-01,PA-10,and PA-16.
All three seats will most likely become more republican in a incumbent protection map. PA-01 just needs a more republican piece of Montgomery County and that alone could turn it into a +1-3 trump seat.

Thats if the courts allow it lol, the courts clearly switched the old PA 1 from R leaning to D leaning for this reason even though it was just as compact as before.

[politicallefty]

I'm not really optimistic about any future PA map even if it's fairly drawn. Yes, a Republican seat will have to be eliminated, but a lot of other seats are going to move at least a couple points to the right.

Let's look at the 3 close seats from 2018:
-PA-01: Okay, this seat will largely be unchanged. It's still the Bucks County district. It will pick up more swingy and D-leaning territory. It probably moves marginally to the left.
-PA-10: This is a Trump leaning district from the start. With population changes, it will almost certainly lose the city of York and have to take in considerably more Republican territory.
-PA-16: A strong Trump district, but with some considerable Democratic roots. It was close because of the wave, a weak incumbent, and a strong challenger. It has no choice but to expand into  very Republican PA-15. At that point, it's basically off limits for Democrats.

And that's not including PA-17, which will have to move into Butler County and PA-08 that has to move westward to accommodate PA-07 moving northward. Looking at it this way, if I was the PA Republican Party, I'd take my chances with a court-drawn map.

I’ll draw a 17 seat PA map later,but as for your points about PA-01,PA-10,and PA-16.
All three seats will most likely become more republican in a incumbent protection map. PA-01 just needs a more republican piece of Montgomery County and that alone could turn it into a +1-3 trump seat.

An overt incumbent protection gerrymander would almost certainly not survive the PA Supreme Court. I also hope you're considering population trends over the past decade, where Central and Western PA have bled population. I personally just don't expect a bipartisan incumbent protection deal out of a state like PA. A lot could depend on whether or not Dems win PA-01 next year.

Also, I don't think you can post maps or links until you have 20 posts.

[Smash255]

I'm not really optimistic about any future PA map even if it's fairly drawn. Yes, a Republican seat will have to be eliminated, but a lot of other seats are going to move at least a couple points to the right.

Let's look at the 3 close seats from 2018:
-PA-01: Okay, this seat will largely be unchanged. It's still the Bucks County district. It will pick up more swingy and D-leaning territory. It probably moves marginally to the left.
-PA-10: This is a Trump leaning district from the start. With population changes, it will almost certainly lose the city of York and have to take in considerably more Republican territory.
-PA-16: A strong Trump district, but with some considerable Democratic roots. It was close because of the wave, a weak incumbent, and a strong challenger. It has no choice but to expand into  very Republican PA-15. At that point, it's basically off limits for Democrats.

And that's not including PA-17, which will have to move into Butler County and PA-08 that has to move westward to accommodate PA-07 moving northward. Looking at it this way, if I was the PA Republican Party, I'd take my chances with a court-drawn map.

I’ll draw a 17 seat PA map later,but as for your points about PA-01,PA-10,and PA-16.
All three seats will most likely become more republican in a incumbent protection map. PA-01 just needs a more republican piece of Montgomery County and that alone could turn it into a +1-3 trump seat.

Thats if the courts allow it lol, the courts clearly switched the old PA 1 from R leaning to D leaning for this reason even though it was just as compact as before.

The new PA-01 is a little bit more compact than the previous one.  The difference is minor and Bucks is obviously the same, but the line into Montgomery is slightly cleaner than the line under the old map.

[lfromnj]

What about PA 7th, it also has to move right a bit when it expands, im guessing it goes from being 2 points left of the state to a perfect bellwether?

[Boomerberg2020]

Personally I think Berks/Lehigh counties should all both be in the same seat.

[Brittain33]

Personally I think Berks/Lehigh counties should all both be in the same seat.

I was skeptical about splitting the Lehigh valley, but Northampton pairs with Lackawanna-Monroe-Pike-Wayne for about 1 district, so it’s not ridiculous.