Fun with Arizona

[minionofmidas]

People were redistricting again, and it reminded me how I was always unhappy with the Arizona districts, and didn't come up with a satisfactory solution either.

The problem is this:

A district that has 75% of its population in the Phoenix Metro but stretches to the Utah border is just aesthetically insulting.

So, here's my plan:
Maricopa County has 3.072 mio inhabitants, 133K short of 5 districts. Pinal County has 180K inhabitants, much of it at the western end around the Phoenix exurbs of Apache Junction and Casa Grande.
So, 5 districts for Maricopa and Pinal except for the Florence, San Manuel, and 9K/60K of the North Pinal CCD. (North Pinal includes Apache Junction, but stretches east to the Gila County line, and includes a couple of rural, Hispanic communities there. Basically these would be taken out.)
Within this area, there'd be an Anglo North Phoenix district much like the current 4th, a Hispanic South Phoenix district much like the current 6th, a Mesa-based district somewhat like the current 3rd, though probably not including the Pinal portion but instead territory towards the west, and two suburban/exurban districts on the east and west (didn't check where the borders between these two would go, but if 4 still stretches north to the Yavapai line, then it's pretty obvious really - the Pinal and Maricopa areas now in 7 and 1 would replace Mohave County and the Hopi Rez in the 2nd. The 5th would take the area vacated by the 3rd.)

That leaves 3 districts for the remainder, and no reason at all why there shouldn't be a single urban Tucson district. Of Pima County's 844K inhabitants, 756K are in the Tucson CCD and 487K within the city limits. The new district, let's call it the 8th, would include all of Tucson City and about half of the suburbs.

The remainder of the state can then be split into two districts. There are several ways to do this. You could either have an East-West split - say the remainder of Pima, Santa Cruz, Yuma, La Paz, Mohave, and app. 65K/168K of Yavapai for D7, the remainder for D1.
Or you could have a North-South split, which is what I wasted far more thought on.The remainders of Pima and Pinal, Santa Cruz, Cochise, Yuma and La Paz leaves us 55K short. Graham (33) and Greenlee (9) Cos add 42K, but this splits the Apache Reservations. Adding all the Apache Country puts us 4K too high, so you'd have to split La Paz, but I'm reluctant to put the Apache and Navajo into different districts anyways.
Adding only Greenlee and the non-Apache portion of Graham leaves us 18K short that would have to come from Mohave. Leaving all of Greenlee and Graham with the Northern district leaves us 55K short that would have to come from Mohave. The problem is that the southern Mohave Co population is fairly concentrated - there are 42K in Lake Havasu City, 48K in Bullhead City and the nearby CDP of Mohave Valley, and 8K in all the country south of Kingman excluding Lake Havasu City.
My solution, not all that pretty looking but not splitting any cities, would be to place Greenlee in the Southern and Graham in the Northern district. That allows the split in Mohave County to be between Lake Havasu City and the Bullhead/Kingman area.
Number the Southern district "7" and the Northern district "1" and I'm done.

Partisan analysis -
1 - probably a tad more Republican than now (Mohave Co is awfully Republican. Granted so are the Pinal Co exurbs that it's losing, but rural, eastern Pinal votes Democratic.) Still, just as now this is essentially a district the Reps shouldn't ever lose but will have to throw money at when the Dems have a good challenger. Much depends on Native American turnout - if it's low, the Reps are rock-solid safe. As I said, much as now.
2 - ultra Republican, not as much as now but still safe.
3 -  Not as Republican as now, when vacant this might actually be somewhat like D1 (ie, if the Dems find a good candidate the Reps need to spend money to keep it, but keep it they will.)
4 - unchanged. Safe Rep.
5 - Even more Rep than now.
6 - unchanged. Safe Dem.
7 & 8 - these are interesting, and I'm not so sure how they'll vote. The current 7th is purpose-drawn to create a barely Hispanic-majority district, and mine is probably more Republican. Then again, I'd expect the new 8th to elect a Democrat. (If you prefer Tucson to be split still, that is of course possible. In that case, all the change to the 8th is it gains Greenlee, hopefully either loses its portion of Santa Cruz or gains the remainder as well, with changes in Tucson to make up for the difference. It would remain a marginal Republican seat that the Dems have high hopes of snatching in 2006 now that Jim Kolbe is retiring. The 7th gaining of Lake Havasu City and losing of SW Maricopa though might flip that district to the Reps.)

[Gustaf]

So that's what 6-2, best case scenario 5-3?

[minionofmidas]

So that's what 6-2, best case scenario 5-3?

Define best-case scenario. Nowadays Arizona is 6-2, realistic best case scenario 5-3 (for Dems) 6-2 (for Reps), just about imaginable best case scenario 4-4 (for Dems) 7-1 (for Reps).
With that map it'd probably be 6-2, realistic best case scenario 6-2 (for Dems) 7-1 (for Reps), just about imaginable best case scenario 3-5 (for Dems) 7-1 (for Reps).

[socaldem]

I think if the Maricopa-based districts were drawn slightly differently, one could be a toss-up that would be winnable for a suburban Democrat... as it is, J. D. Hayworth's district is fairly marginal.

I would hesitate to make changes in Southern AZ for partisan reasons because I am fairly confident that Gabrielle Giffords will walk into the 8th congressional district....

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I didn't start thinking about partisan effects until after drawing the map (I did think about not diluting Native American voting strength in the first district, but that's a different topic.)

[Gustaf]

No, I won't define best case scenario, you define it.

I meant reasonable, as opposed to likely, I guess. Not "in your wildest dreams"-best case.

[minionofmidas]

Just noticed something odd about the state's racial makeup...

I woulda thought the largest Black percentages would be in Maricopa and Pima, but they're just 2nd and 3rd at 3.7% and 3.0% respectively. Cochise County is 4.5% Black. It's also 0.3% Pacific Islander (all others 0.0% or 0.1%). Wonder why that is? I think I'll have to take a look at where they live now. I know the Bisbee and Douglas areas to the South of the county vote Democrat, the remainder votes Republican.

[minionofmidas]

Eh, should have guessed it. Fort Huachuca and the army town of Sierra Vista of course...

EDIT: And a correctional institution with 1900 inhabitants in the middle of nowhere, 15% of which are Black and about half Hispanic...

[WMS]

Lewsi, if you will tell me which CCD's you used for which districts, maybe I can get a map for you soon.

[minionofmidas]

Lewsi, if you will tell me which CCD's you used for which districts, maybe I can get a map for you soon.

Er...
Maricopa County - I didn't do the details, so I didn't really go by CCDs. Anyways Phoenix CCD is 2,608 mio people and stretches east to Tempe and Mesa...
Pinal - as it says in the text, San Manuel, Florence, and an eastern portion of North Pinal go into D7.
Pima - D8 is entirely within Tucson CCD.
Mohave - CCDs not useful as "Kingman South" CCD includes Bullhead City and everything South of Bullhead and Kingman to the county line.
Other counties aren't cut at all.