Oh my goodness..GOP lead pretty big in Maryland.

[Sam Spade]

1 in 20, even in a perfect world, folks.

^^^^^^^^^^  And sometimes more than that, depending on the quality of the pollster.

I can't really say too much regarding any changes in the Senate race that could lead to the result above.

However, I keep reading about on different websites (and maybe Nick can verify this), that there was a Gonzales Research poll out this week that showed that Ehrlich's approval rating had risen to 53%.  No horserace numbers quote, however. 

That's about the only secondary evidence I can find that might back anything up, since pretty much no one but Rasmussen (and Gonzales Research much earlier) has polled this race in quite a while.

[Sam Spade]

However, I keep reading about on different websites (and maybe Nick can verify this), that there was a Gonzales Research poll out this week that showed that Ehrlich's approval rating had risen to 53%.  No horserace numbers quote, however. 

True.  I posted the poll on my blog 2 days ago.  Ehrlich's approval jumped to 53% and his disapproval dropped to 36%. 

Just as a side note:  The Steele camp sent out an email a week or so ago that stated his internal polling has him tied with Cardin.  I find it kind of hard to believe that Steele's internals have him tied with Cardin, yet Rasmussen has Steele +5%.  With that said, I really, really want to get my hands on the crosstabs from this poll.  My gut says they underpolled Democrats.  Remember we have a 2 to 1 party registration advantage here in MD.

I tend to agree.  And thanks for the poll reference.  I should read your site more often. 

However, I'm pretty sure that we both realize that if Ehrlich's JA numbers have improved to 53% (SUSA had him at 49% in December), his poll numbers probably have as well.  The question is, by how much.

Senate race, I can't say much.  At least not without more polling.  Steele's comment is interesting, no idea what it means it the larger scheme, except that he thinks he's probably behind by a slight amount.

[Sam Spade]

About this whole Ford/Steele thing, my point would be is that Ford has a larger base of support (in Democrats) he can tap into at present, but Tennessee demographics will hurt him expanding beyond that point. 

Simply put, the black population in Tennessee is not that big and I still don't see how Ford, from Memphis, picks up the votes in Nashville and Central Tennessee to get above 45%, above that base of support I mention.  If he was from Central Tennessee, I would be singing a different tune, obviously, but a black man from western Tennessee.  I don't think it's ever happened in the state honestly (Al can correct me if I'm wrong).

Steele has a smaller base of support in Maryland (a little over 40%), but his being black means that he has a larger potential group of voters (in the black vote), that if he somehow connects with, he can gain votes.  I personally doubt that will happen, but he seems to be a fairly smart, articulate black GOP candidate and that is a variable I haven't seen in Maryland recently at least.  Alan Keyes does not count towards that.