Oh my goodness..GOP lead pretty big in Maryland.

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Im pretty much speechless.  Nothing that major has happened since the last round of polling to cause a swing like this. 

Maybe Im just underestimating Ehrlich and Steele as candidates...?

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I did some work for him a couple months ago.  I was actually working every Friday, but I stopped towards the end of my semester because of finals and I was in the process of transfering schools.  As the campaign begins to heat up Ill give him some more of my time.

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The GOP is playing for keeps in Maryland.

Whatever that means?

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Was there something negative about him I missed?  Mfume running a lot of negative ads?

No ads from any campaign, yet.  However, there has been a ton of stories in the Baltimore Sun and WaPo regarding the establishment trying to push Mfume out of the race.  Maybe blacks are getting fed up?

Like I said, nothing that major has happened since the last round of polling to justify these numbers.

Actually now that I think about... Ehrlich and Steele have been getting a ton of good press lately.  Ehrlich recently pledged a ton of money to the Univsersity of Maryland.  He also proposed a 15% reduction in state property taxes.  And just yesterday he agreed to spend 100 million+ on Stem Cell research.

Maybe thats it?

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However, I keep reading about on different websites (and maybe Nick can verify this), that there was a Gonzales Research poll out this week that showed that Ehrlich's approval rating had risen to 53%.  No horserace numbers quote, however. 

True.  I posted the poll on my blog 2 days ago.  Ehrlich's approval jumped to 53% and his disapproval dropped to 36%. 

Just as a side note:  The Steele camp sent out an email a week or so ago that stated his internal polling has him tied with Cardin.  I find it kind of hard to believe that Steele's internals have him tied with Cardin, yet Rasmussen has Steele +5%.  With that said, I really, really want to get my hands on the crosstabs from this poll.  My gut says they underpolled Democrats.  Remember we have a 2 to 1 party registration advantage here in MD.

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However, I'm pretty sure that we both realize that if Ehrlich's JA numbers have improved to 53% (SUSA had him at 49% in December), his poll numbers probably have as well.  The question is, by how much.

I agree.  He's actually been getting a ton of positive press lately.  Like I pointed out earlier in the thread.  He recently pledged a ton of money to the public universities... Pledged millions to stem cell research... and proposed a 15% reduction in state property taxes.  Im actually beginnining to doubt our chances against him.  The state is in good shape, very low unemployment rate, solid job creation, budget surplus.  He's really not doing THAT bad of a job. 

Steele's numbers on the other hand are shocking.  A 14% swing in a matter of months?  Eh, Maybe he's riding Ehrlich's coattails?

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Steele is consistently hyped up by the Republican Party as their Barack Obama.

That only similarity I see is....they're both black...

Charismatic, articulate, former lawyers...

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It's hardly farfetched that Steele could win.  He was elected on a statewide ticket and is looked upon rather favorably by many MD voters.  If Dorgan and Conrad manage to keep winning in the deep red state of North Dakota, it's not out of the question that someday the reverse can happen.

Then I guess you would agree its hardly farfetched that Ford could win in TN?

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Here's a bizarre scenario...

Lets just assume for a second that Steele and Ehrlich win in 2006.  In 2010 Mikulski is likely to retire, which means Ehrlich would be the heavy favorite to replace Mikulski in 2010.

Maryland would go from a state that has not elected a Republican Senator since 1986 to possibly having two Republican Senators in 2010.  Make that two Conservative Republican Senators.  Senator Mathias was an extremely liberal Republican, so he really doesnt count.  The last time Maryland elected a true conservative was Senator John Marshall Butler, who served from 1951-1963.

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Also, Ford is not in Steele's league.

Sure he is.

Both are charismatic, good looking, black guys w/ strong establishment support.  Both are rising stars in their respective parties.  Both are running for Senate in states that have a problem with the letter that follows their name (R & D).  The only real difference between the two is, Ford is a moderate to conservative Democrat running in a conservative state.  Where Steele is a conservative Republican running in a liberal state.  Obviously Ford has the ideological advantage..  The only real advantage Steele has over Ford is, an extremely short resume, which means he can make up his platform as he goes.

One more thing, if we're taking this poll seriously we must also take the Rasmussen TN poll seriously in which Ford was leading all, but one potential challenger.

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Also, at one point wasn't Rep. Chris Van Hollen meant to be running in the Democratic primary also?

He dropped out months ago.  He'll run in 2010.

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Ive heard that some parts of Maryland (Frederick and Eastern Shore) have a large KKK following.  Not sure if it will make much of an impact though.  Heck, Im not even sure if those people vote.