Oh my goodness..GOP lead pretty big in Maryland.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Perhaps the GOP strategy to turn Maryland into a Republican state is working?  I have to say I'm horrified; if the Democrats can't retain open Senate seats in MN, MD and NJ, then we won't gain at all.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think I said that as well.  The important thing to remember is that, in any poll in January of election year, you can depend that the result in November will be different.  I predict that Cardin will defeat Steele in the Senate race at least.  I think the GOP's zenith has come: 2006 will be our year on the Congressional level.

[Adlai Stevenson]

We have seen most polls lean towards Democratic candidates in 2006.  This is why I am sceptical about Steele's chances in Maryland; a blue state in a blue year electing a Republican?  I can envisage Ehrlich holding on in a close race; he then could conceivably run for the Senate in 2010 if Mikulski retires. 

Someone made a point about North Dakota, but I think the difference between ND and MD is that the former is a local state; every candidate is well known there and people are generally re-elected by large margins.  MD's African American and white liberal Democratic base mean it is harder for generic Republicans to win here.  Much like in the South, where Democrats can win Governor's races but often fall short in Senate races, i.e. Inez Tenenbaum (SC 2004) 44%; and Erskine Bowles (NC 2004) 47%.  2004 was clearly a Republican year, probably unlike this one.  Therefore, I feel that Cardin, who is a generic establishment Democratic candidate, can defeat Steele in 2006.  Steele may well get between 44% and 47% in MD, but that is why I feel he is unlikely to win.

Also, at one point wasn't Rep. Chris Van Hollen meant to be running in the Democratic primary also?