Oh my goodness..GOP lead pretty big in Maryland.

[minionofmidas]

MoE?

I also noted that they had Steele totally overtaking Cardin but not increasing his lead on Mfume much ... yet what little internals they published in that press release is all on Steele heavily increasing his share of the Black vote in the matchup vs Mfume. Something's wrong here.
 

[minionofmidas]

One thing I'm not sure about ... if the Reps nominate a Black man, is Cardin still much more electable than Mfume? In a Cardin vs Steele race, there is always a risk for the Reps of a racist backlash in the rural parts of the state (low turnout, more likely than actually voting for the Democrat), and that's what the theory is obviously based on. But given Maryland's demographics - overwhelmingly suburban, large middle class Black population that might be swayed to vote for a Republican who's one of them against a Dem who's not - and given the fact that some of the abovementioned people might not vote in an all-Black Senate race either (it's not a presidential year after all)...
Now, if the Republican candidate were White, I'd go with Cardin...