Does Dennis Skinner Lose His Seat?

[Free Bird]

People are saying there's a very real chance that the Tories pick up Bolsover, which would be huge. Is this Dennis Skinner's last stand? It was probably his last election, but it would be a shame if he lost instead of retiring.

[CumbrianLefty]

People were "saying" this in 2017 too, mind.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

(Almost) anything is possible in a realigning election, but I'll believe this when I see it. Voted no.

[Pericles]

Tossup, his majority is 11.3% but the Leave vote was 70%, so he could hang on but it's probably quite close. Last time there was a 7.7% swing to the Tories, which is a pretty concerning trend for him.

[brucejoel99]

Nah, this is a safe Labour seat so long as Skinner is their candidate (which he obviously is). It'll be a pretty easy Tory gain when he inevitably leaves Parliament in, let's face it, the only way he's ever gonna, though.

[Free Bird]

Tossup, his majority is 11.3% but the Leave vote was 70%, so he could hang on but it's probably quite close. Last time there was a 7.7% swing to the Tories, which is a pretty concerning trend for him.

My worry is Brex could take just enough Leave-Labours who'd never vote Tory to generate a Tory spoiler win. I generally support the Tories for whatever that's worth from this side of the pond but I have a soft spot for Skinner just for how little he gives a  and for having been there so long. It'd be a shame if his career got cut off just before the big 50-year mark.

[Vosem]

On current polling, yes, you expect him to lose. The argument for his survival is either that the polls are underestimating Labour generally (possible) or that he has a very substantial personal vote (likely).

Voted "yes" but it's no slam-dunk. Generic Lab would lose the seat, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tossup, his majority is 11.3% but the Leave vote was 70%, so he could hang on but it's probably quite close. Last time there was a 7.7% swing to the Tories, which is a pretty concerning trend for him.

Though its always possible at least that seats which swung above average to the Tories last time have less room for improvement this time (and this rule could apply to other parties too, of course) Especially if Brexit was the main motivator of this in 2017 as well.

[mileslunn]

50/50 at this point.  On paper his should be an easy Tory pick up as fairly small townish so Labour in the past due to coal fields, but voted 70% leave and is trending strongly Tory.  If he weren't running, I would say emphatically yes, but he is very popular personal so there is a good chance he gets enough personal votes to hold on.  I do think though if he does hold his seat, very good chance it flips next time around or at a by-election (he is in late 80s and will be 90s by 2024 so possible he could die as MP) off course that goes on the assumption Tory vote holds up.  If Brexit is a real disaster or there is another recession that could easily cause Tories to drop enough thus pushing it back in the Labour column.  I do think though if UK used the US system, Boris Johnson would win the riding, but so would Dennis Skinner, otherwise it would be a split ticket district, but in UK ticket splitting not possible.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Apparently yes

[Vosem]

Apparently yes

By double-digits, in fact. It wasn't close.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Looks like the Black Rod won after all.

[Starpaul20]

No!

Now who's gonna make funny quips during the State Opening?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

No!

Now who's gonna make funny quips during the State Opening?

Future historians shall note the first real sign of the dissolution of the Union was the absence of Dennis Skinner's quips to the Black Rod.

[CumbrianLefty]

He did not attend the count as he is unwell, apparently. Maybe a slightly bathetic ending.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

His loss makes his last remark to the Blackrod of "No, I'll not be going" much sadder than intended

[Dr. MB]

Skinner losing was by far the saddest result this election. Even sadder than the final.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Good night, sweet prince.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Father of the House now is some nobody called Sir Peter Bottomley. It should have been the Beast.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The Father of the House now is some nobody called Sir Peter BottomleyVirginia's husband. It should have been the Beast.

IIRC Skinner said at one point he would refuse the distinction.

Also, ftfy.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bottomley is a reasonably well known figure tbf, even if not as iconic as Skinner.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Bottomley is a reasonably well known figure tbf, even if not as iconic as Skinner.

Fair enough. You'd obviously know better than I would.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We live in the worst timeline.

[brucejoel99]

We live in the worst timeline.

This much is true.

[Intell]

As a working class person, I'll say any working class person who voted tory is fycking deranged and stupid. Icespear(D-PA?) was correct.