Georgia vs North Carolina

[Annatar]

I thought it would be interesting to look at how the raw vote numbers for both parties changed during 2008-2016 considering how similar in population both states are.

North Carolina 2008:
D: 2,143k
R: 2,128K

North Carolina 2016:
D: 2,189k
R: 2,363K

D Gain 2008-2016: 46,000
R Gain 2008-2016: 235,000

Georgia 2008:
D: 1,844k
R: 2,048K

Georgia 2016:
D: 1,877k
R: 2,089K

D Gain 2008-2016: 33,000
R Gain 2008-2016: 41,000

What's interesting is how similar the increase in dem vote numbers is in both states, the number of votes cast for the democratic candidate basically increased by the same amount in Georgia as North Carolina. The Republican numbers are however very different with the gain in NC being much larger.

[Non Swing Voter]

This tells me that the trend in Georgia is real.  Hillary wasn't a great candidate but Dems still maintained a gain on par with Republicans in Georgia. 

I don't see a positive Republican trend in North Carolina though.  Even though they gained more votes, the baseline was the first black President's peak performance in 2008 versus Trump in 2016 who spoke to rural white people.  This probably explains the entire discrepancy in the vote totals.  The fact that it didn't exist in Georgia tells me that the demographic changes are real.  Democrats should go all in on Georgia in 2020 and prioritize it over North Carolina in my opinion.  Especially if Joe Biden is the nominee.

[Skill and Chance]

This tells me that the trend in Georgia is real.  Hillary wasn't a great candidate but Dems still maintained a gain on par with Republicans in Georgia. 

I don't see a positive Republican trend in North Carolina though.  Even though they gained more votes, the baseline was the first black President's peak performance in 2008 versus Trump in 2016 who spoke to rural white people.  This probably explains the entire discrepancy in the vote totals.  The fact that it didn't exist in Georgia tells me that the demographic changes are real.  Democrats should go all in on Georgia in 2020 and prioritize it over North Carolina in my opinion.  Especially if Joe Biden is the nominee.

There were (and probably still are judging by the NC-09 special results) a lot of rural Blue Dog Dems left to convert in NC, which has thus far enabled the NC GOP to stay narrowly ahead.  NC Dems held 3 substantially rural majority white CDs as recently as 2012 and only barely lost a 4th one in 2010.  Even with neutrally drawn maps, they likely would have held at least 2.

GA Dems only had John Barrow after Jim Marshall's loss in 2010 and a bunch of R's in the Atlanta suburbs were still winning 2 to 1 against hopeless Dem opponents.  Now that dynamic is gone for good, the GA GOP doesn't have as many options to counter it.  They improved marginally in rural GA in 2018, but that was more about turnout than flipping people who were still voting Dem as in NC. 

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Also the NCGOP does a lot better in the Charlotte Metro for instance then the GAGOP does in ATL. ATL delivered a pretty strong Clinton margin in 2016, while Charlotte was basically tied, flipping slightly red or blue depending on what counties you include in it. The NGOP does do pretty badly in the Triangle, but they still perform pretty well overall. Also, unlike even Forsyth or Cherokee counties in Georgia, Union County et all don’t seem to be experiencing a blue shift of any kind - Trump only underperformed Romney by a point or so in Union and actually outperformed him in some other counties.

[Non Swing Voter]

Need to add the 2020 numbers to this thread now to extrapolate trends.

NC: 2,758K R to 2,684 D
GA: 2,473 D 2,461 R

[Wormless Gourd]

Need to add the 2020 numbers to this thread now to extrapolate trends.

NC: 2,758K R to 2,684 D
GA: 2,473 D 2,461 R

2016-2020
GA R: +373k
GA D: +596k
Net: D +223k
Raw R margin: 211k -> -12k, resulting in a flip.
Georgia had a smaller raw R increase and a larger raw D increase then NC. Georgia Republicans just couldn't keep up and it reflects on the nature of growth in the state(deep blue Atlanta and its diverse suburbs). 62.5% of the increase in two party votes 16-20 went to Democrats. Though a 12k vote deficit seems easy to remedy in the short term, Ds netting over 200k votes in four years is still nothing to sneeze at, or pretend can be easily reverted in another four years. Lean blue, if not a tossup, for 2024.

NC R: +396k
NC D: +495k
Net: D +99k
Raw R margin: 173k -> 74k
Compared to Georgia, NC Rs are somewhat keeping pace and of course have netted votes to flip the state since 2008. Republicans received 44.4% of the increase in two party votes 16-20, but 53.8% of the increase since 2008, so you may consider trends to be a wash in this state vs the clearly one-sided trends in GA. Blue collar white trends, the Lumbee, rural black flight, exurbs and retiree growth complicate strong D gains. Stubbornly close but lean red for the time being, not unlike Florida.

[Devils30]

The Dems have literally improved in every Georgia major election since 2010.

2012: R+7.8
2014: R+ 7.68 and R +7.86 for Senate/Gov (Average R+7.77)
2016: R+5.09
2018: R +1.39
2020: D+0.24
2021 runoffs: D +1.23 and D+2.08

With Herschel Walker as the GOP candidate you wonder if the trend continues even more. But this is why GA should probably be to the left of WI and PA come 2024.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

I think Dems will eventually win North Carolina, but maybe not until the 2030's, assuming recent trends where the incumbent party weakens over 2 consecutive cycles after their win. Unless Charlotte or another city grows to Atlanta levels, I don't think it will become reliably Democratic, but rather a bellwether. Barring a national landslide, I don't think a candidate will regularly win by a margin of greater than 5 points, although a Southern Democrat could win by around 6.

Georgia on the other hand I'm guessing is going to become reliably Democratic, with a strong Republican minority, although with current trends, the GOP could win it again, due to its initial narrow victory. It'll probably be a purple state until sometime in the 2030's, before officially becoming a reliably Democratic state. I think the Democrat ceiling will be around 60%, but more often will be in the low-mid 50's during elections.

[THG]

I think Dems will eventually win North Carolina, but maybe not until the 2030's, assuming recent trends where the incumbent party weakens over 2 consecutive cycles after their win. Unless Charlotte or another city grows to Atlanta levels, I don't think it will become reliably Democratic, but rather a bellwether. Barring a national landslide, I don't think a candidate will regularly win by a margin of greater than 5 points, although a Southern Democrat could win by around 6.

Georgia on the other hand I'm guessing is going to become reliably Democratic, with a strong Republican minority, although with current trends, the GOP could win it again, due to its initial narrow victory. It'll probably be a purple state until sometime in the 2030's, before officially becoming a reliably Democratic state. I think the Democrat ceiling will be around 60%, but more often will be in the low-mid 50's during elections.

This is exactly how I would put it.