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December 12, 2019, 06:42:08 am
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  Georgia vs North Carolina
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« on: November 24, 2019, 10:25:58 pm »

I thought it would be interesting to look at how the raw vote numbers for both parties changed during 2008-2016 considering how similar in population both states are.

North Carolina 2008:
D: 2,143k
R: 2,128K

North Carolina 2016:
D: 2,189k
R: 2,363K

D Gain 2008-2016: 46,000
R Gain 2008-2016: 235,000

Georgia 2008:
D: 1,844k
R: 2,048K

Georgia 2016:
D: 1,877k
R: 2,089K

D Gain 2008-2016: 33,000
R Gain 2008-2016: 41,000

What's interesting is how similar the increase in dem vote numbers is in both states, the number of votes cast for the democratic candidate basically increased by the same amount in Georgia as North Carolina. The Republican numbers are however very different with the gain in NC being much larger.

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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2019, 05:30:37 pm »

This tells me that the trend in Georgia is real.  Hillary wasn't a great candidate but Dems still maintained a gain on par with Republicans in Georgia. 

I don't see a positive Republican trend in North Carolina though.  Even though they gained more votes, the baseline was the first black President's peak performance in 2008 versus Trump in 2016 who spoke to rural white people.  This probably explains the entire discrepancy in the vote totals.  The fact that it didn't exist in Georgia tells me that the demographic changes are real.  Democrats should go all in on Georgia in 2020 and prioritize it over North Carolina in my opinion.  Especially if Joe Biden is the nominee.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2019, 05:11:33 pm »

This tells me that the trend in Georgia is real.  Hillary wasn't a great candidate but Dems still maintained a gain on par with Republicans in Georgia. 

I don't see a positive Republican trend in North Carolina though.  Even though they gained more votes, the baseline was the first black President's peak performance in 2008 versus Trump in 2016 who spoke to rural white people.  This probably explains the entire discrepancy in the vote totals.  The fact that it didn't exist in Georgia tells me that the demographic changes are real.  Democrats should go all in on Georgia in 2020 and prioritize it over North Carolina in my opinion.  Especially if Joe Biden is the nominee.

There were (and probably still are judging by the NC-09 special results) a lot of rural Blue Dog Dems left to convert in NC, which has thus far enabled the NC GOP to stay narrowly ahead.  NC Dems held 3 substantially rural majority white CDs as recently as 2012 and only barely lost a 4th one in 2010.  Even with neutrally drawn maps, they likely would have held at least 2.

GA Dems only had John Barrow after Jim Marshall's loss in 2010 and a bunch of R's in the Atlanta suburbs were still winning 2 to 1 against hopeless Dem opponents.  Now that dynamic is gone for good, the GA GOP doesn't have as many options to counter it.  They improved marginally in rural GA in 2018, but that was more about turnout than flipping people who were still voting Dem as in NC. 
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2019, 03:29:04 am »

Also the NCGOP does a lot better in the Charlotte Metro for instance then the GAGOP does in ATL. ATL delivered a pretty strong Clinton margin in 2016, while Charlotte was basically tied, flipping slightly red or blue depending on what counties you include in it. The NGOP does do pretty badly in the Triangle, but they still perform pretty well overall. Also, unlike even Forsyth or Cherokee counties in Georgia, Union County et all donít seem to be experiencing a blue shift of any kind - Trump only underperformed Romney by a point or so in Union and actually outperformed him in some other counties.
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