This tells me that the trend in Georgia is real. Hillary wasn't a great candidate but Dems still maintained a gain on par with Republicans in Georgia.
I don't see a positive Republican trend in North Carolina though. Even though they gained more votes, the baseline was the first black President's peak performance in 2008 versus Trump in 2016 who spoke to rural white people. This probably explains the entire discrepancy in the vote totals. The fact that it didn't exist in Georgia tells me that the demographic changes are real. Democrats should go all in on Georgia in 2020 and prioritize it over North Carolina in my opinion. Especially if Joe Biden is the nominee.
There were (and probably still are judging by the NC-09 special results) a
lot of rural Blue Dog Dems left to convert in NC, which has thus far enabled the NC GOP to stay narrowly ahead. NC Dems held 3 substantially rural majority white CDs as recently as 2012 and only barely lost a 4th one in 2010. Even with neutrally drawn maps, they likely would have held at least 2.
GA Dems only had John Barrow after Jim Marshall's loss in 2010 and a bunch of R's in the Atlanta suburbs were still winning 2 to 1 against hopeless Dem opponents. Now that dynamic is gone for good, the GA GOP doesn't have as many options to counter it. They improved marginally in rural GA in 2018, but that was more about turnout than flipping people who were still voting Dem as in NC.
