America is shifting leftward. How the GOP can stop the shift. - Dick Morris

[Moooooo]

Just wanted to get some opinions on the piece.

America is shifting leftward:

It is always dangerous to generalize about ideological trends among the American electorate, since it will always lean right on certain issues (like defense, terrorism and taxes) and hew to the left on others (like healthcare, education, poverty and the environment). But the data are becoming overwhelming that the nation is moving left and is likely to stay that way through at least the 2006 election — and, if President Bush doesn’t adjust, for a lot longer.

The evidence is clear: The generic party ballot for Congress, for example, has now swollen to a 13-point Democratic edge while Bush’s job approval hangs in the 40s and his advisers are relieved that it is no longer a lot lower.

Why the leftward move?

A big part of the reason is the success the Bush administration has had in solving and hence diminishing the importance of the Republican agenda. Taxes have been cut, we have not had a terror attack since Sept. 11 and trial lawyers are on the defensive. The issues that remain — energy, environment, healthcare and Social Security — usually are Democratic and liberal.

The drip-drip-drip of Iraqi casualties isn’t helping Bush any, and Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) has done more to hurt the GOP than any Democrat has, but the fundamental reason for the liberal drift is the salience of issues normally identified with the left. To reverse the situation, therefore, Bush has three options:

(A) Fight the Democrats on issues that are already in play but have a Republican skew.

(B) Raise new issues that have a built-in skew right and a Republican orientation.

(C) Recast Republican positions on Democratic issues that are already in play to make them work for the GOP.

The Democrats are helping Bush mightily by their vitriolic response to reports of National Security Agency wiretapping and their opposition to the Patriot Act renewal. Since we have not had a terror attack in four and a half years, the homeland-security issue, the mother of all Republican issues, would seem likely to fade into the background. But by beating Bush over the head for his efforts to keep America safe, the liberals are helping Bush, raising the salience of one of his core issues. In his State of the Union speech, Bush should spend considerable time taking them to task on these grounds, since it will help him enormously.

Two new solid Republican issues are begging for attention from the White House: immigration and drugs.

The administration’s guest-worker program is a good step in the right direction to appease Hispanic voters, but it must be accompanied by some red meat for the base — the border fence passed by the House. The fence without guest-worker rights will alienate the fastest growing bloc of voters, the Latinos. The guest workers without the fence will do nothing to move voters toward the GOP.

As the victory of Evo Morales in Bolivia makes clear, cocaine is concomitant of oil in fueling terrorism in the Western Hemisphere. The narcoterrorists use our dependence on black oil and white cocaine to power their anti-American work and terrorist activities. Soon their terror will spread to our shores. Already the cocaine infects our young.

Bush should urge drug testing, with parental consent, in schools in his State of the Union address and put drugs back in play as a domestic issue. Crime is down, but drug use is still a vital Republican issue. Put it back on the agenda.

Finally, the Republican Party had better consign itself to defeat in the next two elections unless it does more to elaborate an energy/environmental policy. It must go beyond nuclear power and Alaska drilling in policies to achieve more energy independence.

Terrorism and pump prices have made this issue the dominant one in our political matrix. Bush needs to make hydrogen and hybrid cars a key part of his program and needs to challenge America to switch and end our dependence on imported oil.

On the environment, Americans have already decided that global warming is causing weather aberrations like the hurricane activity this summer. The administration can no longer keep its head in the sand on this issue. More than any other subject, this area of Bush blindness is making America Democratic.

Bush has to decide if he is willing to preside over the diminution of the Republican Party so that the nation embraces Democrats for the ensuing eight years, just as his father did. Those are the stakes.

[TheresNoMoney]

Dick Morris is a horrible, horrible person. The guy has zero principles.

[afleitch]

It's a very wooly article. I wouldn't say America was 'shifting' anywhere, but when one party control the House, Senate and Presidency they are bound to get burnt when something goes wrong

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd take the Weekly World News seriously before Dick Morris.

[WalterMitty]

yesterday at goodwill i found dick morris latest book 'hillary vs. condi'...in basically brand new condition.  $2

[Beet]

I don't think it's fair to say America is shifting leftward when we have the first one-party GOP control since the 1920s, and while 1920s conservatives were true lassiez-faire conservators of the status quo, today's right-wing party is highly activist and reactionary in its goals. The political climate in this country is more reactionary than any time in the past 100 years.

What's more accurate is to say the GOP, on economic issues, has shifted leftward. Now that they control the levers of spending, small government is no longer a concern for them...either socially or economically. After all those years it appears in the end that they never really believed in their own rhetoric after all except as a matter of convenience. We can continue to see the government play its post-New Deal role in the economy with the GOP in control, though we may not get the health care coverage for the poor and other similiar programs that Democrats have advocated.

[12th Doctor]

What can I say...  I think he is right.  Hatred of gays is nto going to keep the GOP in power for ever... it is time to modernize our stances on a number of issues.

[The Duke]

Morris is not saiyng that there is an emerging Democratic majority like Jon Judis once claimed.  He's just saying that right now, the GOP's has lost momentum and voters are leaning more towards Democrats.  I think that's basically true.

Morris is also right that George Bush has hurt the GOP with his stance on a number of issues, including the envorinment, and that he has let traditionally GOP issues like crime and drug use fall off the radar.

He has some good advice in here.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Basically, Morris has identified what has already been stated in this thread: the GOP controls Congress and the Presidency, therefore its certain that the 'swing of pendulum' will go towards the Democrats. 

I think that the next realignment of the electorate, not just in America but in Britain also, will be towards the left.  The Reagan-Thatcherite agenda still dominates, meaning that the left-wing had to accept the changes of the 1980s in order to get back into power during the 1990s.  Much like conservatives after Roosevelt in America, Atlee in Britain and the creation of the welfare state, the opposition has to move with the times and accept social change brought on by political events. 

I think we will see a resurgence of more liberal idealism in America, or at least a libertarian attitude.  2004 was the year of the evangelical, 'moral issues' voter, that was the apogee, but we know that once things reach a peak, they tend to decline.  I think those people had been building up since around 1998 during the Clinton scandals and their moralist outrage at society had gathered momentum by 2002 and 2004.  I think that this group has at times been angry with the President and Congress, due to their legislative inaction on a number of conservative issues.  They could well neglect to turnout in 2006 for several GOP incumbents.

The average American voter, always moderate, experiences shifts during their lifetime between the left and the right.  'Average Americans' supported the Republicans in 1980, 1984 and 1988; they swung towards the Democrats in 1992 and 1996, and even in 2000.  America has fundamentally changed since then.  I don't think the GOP can stop the 'shifting leftward' because I think its a natural social and political event that has occured numerous times before.
 

[Moooooo]

Basically, Morris has identified what has already been stated in this thread: the GOP controls Congress and the Presidency, therefore its certain that the 'swing of pendulum' will go towards the Democrats. 

I think that the next realignment of the electorate, not just in America but in Britain also, will be towards the left.  The Reagan-Thatcherite agenda still dominates, meaning that the left-wing had to accept the changes of the 1980s in order to get back into power during the 1990s.  Much like conservatives after Roosevelt in America, Atlee in Britain and the creation of the welfare state, the opposition has to move with the times and accept social change brought on by political events. 

I think we will see a resurgence of more liberal idealism in America, or at least a libertarian attitude.  2004 was the year of the evangelical, 'moral issues' voter, that was the apogee, but we know that once things reach a peak, they tend to decline.  I think those people had been building up since around 1998 during the Clinton scandals and their moralist outrage at society had gathered momentum by 2002 and 2004.  I think that this group has at times been angry with the President and Congress, due to their legislative inaction on a number of conservative issues.  They could well neglect to turnout in 2006 for several GOP incumbents.

The average American voter, always moderate, experiences shifts during their lifetime between the left and the right.  'Average Americans' supported the Republicans in 1980, 1984 and 1988; they swung towards the Democrats in 1992 and 1996, and even in 2000.  America has fundamentally changed since then.  I don't think the GOP can stop the 'shifting leftward' because I think its a natural social and political event that has occured numerous times before.
 

Nice analysis, thanks!

Do you believe Morris is correct to assume the democrats will do well because the isses that Americans trust the GOP with have no been put on the back-burner?

[tarheel-leftist85]

Morris is about the most uninsightful (and sleazy) person to walk this earth.  It takes someone much dumber (even than myself) to think Condi is the only one that can beat Hillary.  Republicans will continue to dominate so long as liberals and Democrats continue to concede on economics and adopt libertarian stances.    Sure people don't want high taxes, but if the government is accountable, they'll go along for it (especially progressive taxation).  He is right about how liberals' outcry over domestic spying will hurt them, though.  Also, if Dems. filibuster Alito, I expect Santorum to prevail in Pennsylvania, and for Republicans to gain a sufficient number of seats so as to filibuster-proof the Senate.  60% of this country may be "pro-choice,"  but 60% are not pro-Roe v. Wade, nor are the 60% as dedicated to the very abstract idea of choice as the 40% are dedicated to the less-abstract idea of murder v. non-murder.  Santorum will win if Dems. filibuster, you heard it here first.

[Gustaf]

In a two-party system where no party holds majority status it's more or less impossible for one party to hold control for a sustained period of time.

[Erc]

The "generic Congressional ballot" means nothing.  In 2004, the Democrats had a (very) significant lead on that until mid-October, if I recall.

[Alcon]

Is there anyone here who likes Dick Morris as an analyst?

[© tweed]

Is there anyone here who likes Dick Morris as an analyst?

His only redeeming quality is that he has a foot fetish.

[Alcon]

Is there anyone here who likes Dick Morris as an analyst?

His only redeeming quality is that he has a foot fetish.

I don't want to know why that's redeeming or how you know that.

[A18]

I do

[© tweed]

I know it from Tucker Carlson's book.

It's redeeming because foot fetishists are freedom fighters.

[Alcon]

I know it from Tucker Carlson's book.

It's redeeming because foot fetishists are freedom fighters.

That's really something I never wanted to know about you.

[The Duke]

Is there anyone here who likes Dick Morris as an analyst?

Yes.  He's bad a predictions, which makes him seem dumb, but he's a great advisor who saved Clinton's bacon.

I know it from Tucker Carlson's book.

It's redeeming because foot fetishists are freedom fighters.

I don't like feet...

You must not like freedom, either.

[MissCatholic]

Is there anyone here who likes Dick Morris as an analyst?

Bill O'Reilly - he always agrees with him.

My favorite analysis from Dick Morris

Hannity : Name me a state bush won in 2004 that would vote for Hillary?

Morris : Indiana