What will happen in Venezuela?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I'm curious what you think will happen in Venezuela.

[Lumine]

Maduro stays President and Venezuela continues down the road to hell.

He's just never going to willingly leave power or make real concessions to the opposition in terms of fair elections, meaning the only realistic solution at this point is the government somehow collapsing. A foreign intervention was never going to take place, and that's even more certain now. Mexico and now Argentina will provide Maduro with some breathing room by account of their - so called - "neutral" position, and several other Latin American nations are too weakened or engulfed in these mass protest movements to get involved.

Plus, the Venezuelan opposition and Guaido missed their one shot at forcing the collapse of Maduro's position on April 30 during the failed uprising. Whereas Maduro can afford to play for time as he controls the levers of power, the opposition can't, and they've sort of suffered death by a thousand cuts lately on account of their divisions (which even in this context they can't seem to overcome) and the sheer exhaustion after years of repression, psychological warfare, imprisonment, torture or outright murder. Add to that the fact that even if the military was to suddenly make a move they would not only struggle with the ruthlessness of Maduro's security apparatus (plus Cuban intelligence) but with the enormous numbers of pro-government militia and paramilitary units.

All things considered, I suspect the opposition will lose the ongoing power play over the coming Congressional elections, the National Assembly will be replaced through another sham election, and the world will simply watch as the situation becomes even worse and Venezuela either becomes Cuba 2: Electric Boogaloo or outright implodes if the economic crisis/famine leads to full blown social collapse.

I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see reasons to be optimistic there.