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December 12, 2019, 06:34:13 am
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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  Rate TX-24 for 2020
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Question: Who will win Texas' 24th congressional district in 2020?
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tilt D/Tossup
 
#5
Tilt R/Tossup
 
#6
Lean R
 
#7
Likely R
 
#8
Safe R
 
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Total Voters: 56

Author Topic: Rate TX-24 for 2020  (Read 627 times)
LCameronOR
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« on: December 03, 2019, 05:53:43 pm »
« edited: December 03, 2019, 06:58:38 pm by LCameronOR »

This district has a PVI of R+9. Currently represented by Republican Kenny Marchant, TX-24 covers a suburban strip between Fort Worth and Dallas. In 2012, Romney won this district by 22.4%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 6.2%

In the 2018 Senate race, O'Rourke won this district by 3%.

Kenny Marchant is not seeking reelection in 2020, making this an open seat. Republican candidates include Beth Van Duyne. Democrat candidates include John Biggan, Will Fisher, Kim Olson, and Jan McDowell.

Recent Results
2018: R +3.1
2016: R +16.9
2014: R +32.8
2012: R +25

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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2019, 06:17:00 pm »

This district has a PVI of R+9. Currently represented by Republican Kenny Marchant, TX-24 covers a suburban strip between Fort Worth and Dallas. In 2012, Romney won this district by 22.4%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 6.2%

In the 2018 Senate race, Cruz won this district by 3%.

Kenny Marchant is not seeking reelection in 2020, making this an open seat. Republican candidates include Beth Van Duyne. Democrat candidates include John Biggan, Will Fisher, Kim Olson, and Jan McDowell.

Recent Results
2018: R +3.1
2016: R +16.9
2014: R +32.8
2012: R +25



Correction, Beto won by 3% not Cruz, going with tiltR/Tossup. Its basically a carbon copy of GA 7th with the same GOP incumbent etc. The only reason that this wasn't as close was due to candidate quality. Mcdowell was a truly awful candidate in that she only raised like 100k.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2019, 09:51:19 pm »

Im going to be bullish and say Tilt D. This seat was hardly on anyones radar, and yet it was quite close, not to mention Marchant is retiring. Even if Trump narrowly wins this district (not a given), I think its one of the most likely seats to flip to the Democrats, after GA-07 and TX-23.
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gracile
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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2019, 10:05:25 pm »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2019, 10:26:41 am »

Pure tossup
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2019, 11:49:16 am »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2019, 09:50:19 pm »

Tilt D. Id bet money on Trump losing this seat and that will likely be enough to drag down the Republican. Third most likely GOP seat to flip after GA-7 (Lean/Likely D) and TX-23 (Lean D) in that order
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2019, 09:54:12 pm »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2019, 10:01:11 pm »

the primary will be Kim Olson vs Candace Valenzuela (who was left out of the op for some reason?)

GE should be lean D, this district has moved left at an insane rate. I was shocked at how close it was in 2018 and I live here! Of course I voted for Marchant in 2018 because I am not a fan of McDowell, but I'll be voting for the D this time.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2019, 10:14:25 pm »

the primary will be Kim Olson vs Candace Valenzuela (who was left out of the op for some reason?)

GE should be lean D, this district has moved left at an insane rate. I was shocked at how close it was in 2018 and I live here! Of course I voted for Marchant in 2018 because I am not a fan of McDowell, but I'll be voting for the D this time.

The possibility of Olson winning the primary is keeping me from moving it to Lean D. Shed probably blow it. With Valenzuela I think Lean D is fair
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2019, 02:24:32 am »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

Paxton is a corrupt imbecile, his being from DFW doesn't matter. This isn't 1930 anymore. Local areas mattered when most voters won't know the politicians otherwise so they vote for the local guy they know, now that everyone can easily get news and information with a hit of a button that's generally meaningless.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2019, 06:20:02 am »

Not to derail this thread, but we just had gubernatorial elections in which Democrats had huge hometown bounces. JBE won his home parish by 5% even though it went for Trump 64-32 and Jim Hood won his home Chickasaw County by 25%, and that was an Obama to Trump county
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2019, 03:17:39 pm »

Not to derail this thread, but we just had gubernatorial elections in which Democrats had huge hometown bounces. JBE won his home parish by 5% even though it went for Trump 64-32 and Jim Hood won his home Chickasaw County by 25%, and that was an Obama to Trump county

Mainly because turnout matters more in an off-off year election, sure. Doubt it'll matter much in 2020. Also, Ken Paxton is no Jim Hood or JBE.
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« Reply #13 on: December 10, 2019, 02:35:00 am »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 02:41:22 am by Tartarus Sauce »

Lean D, there's a reason Marchant retired, he knows which way the wind is blowing. The Democratic candidate will end up outperforming Beto's margin.

I recognize this district was won narrowly by both Beto and Marchant and Trump won it by a modest margin in 2016, so people are being rather bearish on going too far out on a limb, but let's be real, this is one of the top contenders for largest House swing to the Dems from 2016 in a Republican held seat.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2019, 02:37:06 am »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

I just love how you keep assuming 2020 will have a similar national environment as 2018 when it very likely will not
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #15 on: December 10, 2019, 03:29:40 am »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

I just love how you keep assuming 2020 will have a similar national environment as 2018 when it very likely will not
It's been moving very fast from right to left, I'm not even sure a good republican year could save it at this point.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: December 10, 2019, 03:59:33 am »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

I just love how you keep assuming 2020 will have a similar national environment as 2018 when it very likely will not

Why? It's not like Trump's popularity has improved noticeably or there is the potential for the economy to grow at a faster rate.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2019, 05:05:29 am »

The most likely Texas district to flip
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2019, 11:03:20 am »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

I just love how you keep assuming 2020 will have a similar national environment as 2018 when it very likely will not

Trump could lose Texas by 5% and youd still be clinging to your denial that Texas is a Likely R state going forward

If it makes you feel better though, this seat is probably now the fifth most likely GOP seat to flip now that the two NC districts are goners
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Brittain33
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« Reply #19 on: December 10, 2019, 01:02:42 pm »


NOT ALLOWED
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2019, 06:46:00 pm »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

I just love how you keep assuming 2020 will have a similar national environment as 2018 when it very likely will not

It doesn't require a major D leaning year to win Texas 24th. Unlike the other Texas districts besides Texas 23, Beto won this by a solid 3.5% and it was rated Safe R by many raters yet it was within 3 points despite the fact the D only raised 100k. The only question is if this district is 6 or 3 points left of the state in 2018. If its 3 points left of the state the GOP will probably hold it but if its 6 points left of the state its basically a pure tossup.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #21 on: December 10, 2019, 07:00:45 pm »

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

I just love how you keep assuming 2020 will have a similar national environment as 2018 when it very likely will not

It doesn't require a major D leaning year to win Texas 24th. Unlike the other Texas districts besides Texas 23, Beto won this by a solid 3.5% and it was rated Safe R by many raters yet it was within 3 points despite the fact the D only raised 100k. The only question is if this district is 6 or 3 points left of the state in 2018. If its 3 points left of the state the GOP will probably hold it but if its 6 points left of the state its basically a pure tossup.

This.  Tilt D, does not remotely require a statewide Dem win to flip.
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