Rate TX-24 for 2020

[lfromnj]

This district has a PVI of R+9. Currently represented by Republican Kenny Marchant, TX-24 covers a suburban strip between Fort Worth and Dallas. In 2012, Romney won this district by 22.4%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 6.2%

In the 2018 Senate race, Cruz won this district by 3%.

Kenny Marchant is not seeking reelection in 2020, making this an open seat. Republican candidates include Beth Van Duyne. Democrat candidates include John Biggan, Will Fisher, Kim Olson, and Jan McDowell.

Recent Results
2018: R +3.1
2016: R +16.9
2014: R +32.8
2012: R +25

Correction, Beto won by 3% not Cruz, going with tiltR/Tossup. Its basically a carbon copy of GA 7th with the same GOP incumbent etc. The only reason that this wasn't as close was due to candidate quality. Mcdowell was a truly awful candidate in that she only raised like 100k.

[lfromnj]

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

I just love how you keep assuming 2020 will have a similar national environment as 2018 when it very likely will not

It doesn't require a major D leaning year to win Texas 24th. Unlike the other Texas districts besides Texas 23, Beto won this by a solid 3.5% and it was rated Safe R by many raters yet it was within 3 points despite the fact the D only raised 100k. The only question is if this district is 6 or 3 points left of the state in 2018. If its 3 points left of the state the GOP will probably hold it but if its 6 points left of the state its basically a pure tossup.