Rate TX-24 for 2020

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Tossup/Tilt D (slightly). It should be noted that O'Rourke was not the only statewide Democrat to win this district (the Democratic AG nominee won it as well), and it was fairly close at the House level despite not being seriously contested. This is probably the most likely Texas to flip after TX-23.

So 2 Dems winning it (out of 8? statewide candidates) makes it Tilt D? Tilt R imo for sure, though it's basically a meaningless distinction

Since it takes a bit for downballot voting patterns to match up ticket races like President and Congress, yes, the fact that this seat voted for the Democrat for AG despite Paxton being from DFW is a pretty big sign

Paxton is a corrupt imbecile, his being from DFW doesn't matter. This isn't 1930 anymore. Local areas mattered when most voters won't know the politicians otherwise so they vote for the local guy they know, now that everyone can easily get news and information with a hit of a button that's generally meaningless.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Not to derail this thread, but we just had gubernatorial elections in which Democrats had huge hometown bounces. JBE won his home parish by 5% even though it went for Trump 64-32 and Jim Hood won his home Chickasaw County by 25%, and that was an Obama to Trump county

Mainly because turnout matters more in an off-off year election, sure. Doubt it'll matter much in 2020. Also, Ken Paxton is no Jim Hood or JBE.