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January 29, 2020, 03:21:40 pm
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Riverside vs Orange, 2020
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Question: Riverside County voted to the right of Orange County for the first time in 2016, and continued that pattern in 2018 (OC voted for Newsom by 3k votes while Riverside went for Cox). Which is more likely in 2020 to happen in 2020?
#1
Riverside County will vote to the right of Orange County
 
#2
Orange County will vote to the right of Riverside County
 
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Total Voters: 31

Author Topic: Riverside vs Orange, 2020  (Read 581 times)
Sen. Dean Heller
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« on: December 03, 2019, 11:07:46 pm »

My main intent here is actually really to ask why, which is why I'm putting this question here. Why are Riverside suburbanites/exurbanites so much less willing to give up their GOP roots than Orange County ones? As an example:

CA-42 vs CA-48 (2012): CA-42 +3 to the right of CA-48

CA-42 vs CA-48 (2016): CA-42 +14 to the right of CA-48

Both are very diverse as well btw. In fact, CA-48 is actually 10 points or so whiter than CA-42, and both districts have similarly high income levels.

So, yeah. Why?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2019, 11:17:47 pm »

If you want to know why, the reason is based in who votes Dem in each county. The Inland Empire democratic party relies very heavily on Hispanics who drop off in off-year elections. While Orange Dems also depend on Hispanics, it is the Asian vote that powered the Blue wave down there in 2018. Asians didn't go as hard for Dems as they did for Clinton, but they mainly stayed blue (outside of local Asian GOP races) and mainly kept their turnout levels proportional to the rest of the population. So OC went blue whereas Riverside whites overpowered their Hispanic neighbors.

Despite the easy answer to 2018, your main question in regards to 2020 is still an interesting one. OC has more voters available to flip blue and has more  people moving in with democratic leanings. Riverside is less flexible. However, Riverside has been Blue for longer then OC, so it has a head start. If dems are able to get Hispanics to vote with higher rates for some reason, that will be felt more in Riverside than in OC.
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Councilor Gracile
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2019, 11:27:04 pm »

CA-48 also has a much higher college-educated population. About 53% of people in CA-48 aged 25 and older have a higher degree compared to CA-42 which is about 34%. Having a post-secondary degree has become increasingly correlated to Democratic voting habits, and in 2016 it was one of the most indicative factors of whether an area trended Democratic or Republican.
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2019, 11:28:43 pm »

If you want to know why, the reason is based in who votes Dem in each county. The Inland Empire democratic party relies very heavily on Hispanics who drop off in off-year elections. While Orange Dems also depend on Hispanics, it is the Asian vote that powered the Blue wave down there in 2018. Asians didn't go as hard for Dems as they did for Clinton, but they mainly stayed blue (outside of local Asian GOP races) and mainly kept their turnout levels proportional to the rest of the population. So OC went blue whereas Riverside whites overpowered their Hispanic neighbors.

Despite the easy answer to 2018, your main question in regards to 2020 is still an interesting one. OC has more voters available to flip blue and has more  people moving in with democratic leanings. Riverside is less flexible. However, Riverside has been Blue for longer then OC, so it has a head start. If dems are able to get Hispanics to vote with higher rates for some reason, that will be felt more in Riverside than in OC.

Makes sense, though I'm still curious: Why did Riverside vote to the right in 2016 in that case?
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2019, 11:29:17 pm »

CA-48 also has a much higher college-educated population. About 53% of people in CA-48 aged 25 and older have a higher degree compared to CA-42 which is about 34%. Having a post-secondary degree has become increasingly correlated to Democratic voting habits, and in 2016 it was one of the most indicative factors of whether an area trended Democratic or Republican.

Why are the Orange County suburbs so much more college educated then the Riverside ones then?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2019, 09:05:59 pm »

The professional class is less likely to live in far flung suburbs.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2019, 11:37:01 pm »

Exurban areas will not become as totally overtaken by the Democrats as suburban areas. Long term, Orange County will move solidly to the Democrats, but Riverside County will probably stay somewhat competitive, at least for now.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2019, 11:52:14 pm »

CA-48 also has a much higher college-educated population. About 53% of people in CA-48 aged 25 and older have a higher degree compared to CA-42 which is about 34%. Having a post-secondary degree has become increasingly correlated to Democratic voting habits, and in 2016 it was one of the most indicative factors of whether an area trended Democratic or Republican.

Why are the Orange County suburbs so much more college educated then the Riverside ones then?

More expensive housing, better quality of life.
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National Progressive
General Mung Beans
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2019, 04:20:29 am »

If you want to know why, the reason is based in who votes Dem in each county. The Inland Empire democratic party relies very heavily on Hispanics who drop off in off-year elections. While Orange Dems also depend on Hispanics, it is the Asian vote that powered the Blue wave down there in 2018. Asians didn't go as hard for Dems as they did for Clinton, but they mainly stayed blue (outside of local Asian GOP races) and mainly kept their turnout levels proportional to the rest of the population. So OC went blue whereas Riverside whites overpowered their Hispanic neighbors.

Despite the easy answer to 2018, your main question in regards to 2020 is still an interesting one. OC has more voters available to flip blue and has more  people moving in with democratic leanings. Riverside is less flexible. However, Riverside has been Blue for longer then OC, so it has a head start. If dems are able to get Hispanics to vote with higher rates for some reason, that will be felt more in Riverside than in OC.

Makes sense, though I'm still curious: Why did Riverside vote to the right in 2016 in that case?

Riverside County is one of the few areas of the Southern California metroplex with a significant White Working-Class demographic.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2019, 01:43:27 am »

Also CA 48th is a beach district, probably has that wealth and education to swing hard D in 2016.
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2019, 01:54:21 pm »

Also CA 48th is a beach district, probably has that wealth and education to swing hard D in 2016.

Well they're pretty similar median income wise, but there is a big education difference.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2019, 02:12:53 pm »

Also CA 48th is a beach district, probably has that wealth and education to swing hard D in 2016.

Well they're pretty similar median income wise, but there is a big education difference.

CA48 is actually whiter than CA42, it's just that there's a big education gap, and Hispanics don't even come close to matching the white turnout of 42.
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2019, 02:13:35 pm »

Also CA 48th is a beach district, probably has that wealth and education to swing hard D in 2016.

Well they're pretty similar median income wise, but there is a big education difference.

CA48 is actually whiter than CA42, it's just that there's a big education gap, and Hispanics don't even come close to matching the white turnout of 42.

Yep, that seems to be the consensus!
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