Boise, ID Metro Question

[walleye26]

I know Boise is pretty liberal, but this question is about it’s suburbs. It looks like Garden City is kind of liberal. Is that correct? My other questions are as follows:
1) Meridian and Nampa seem like they are growing super fast. What people are moving here? It looks like these cities median age is only in the low 30s.
2) Are these suburbs similar to others around the country? Are they more educated? More well off?
3) Are these the type of places we can see trending D? Why or why not?

[Dr. MB]

Garden City isn't really a "suburb". It's surrounded by the city of Boise itself so not really surprising that it has the same politics.

[cinyc]

I know Boise is pretty liberal, but this question is about it’s suburbs. It looks like Garden City is kind of liberal. Is that correct? My other questions are as follows:
1) Meridian and Nampa seem like they are growing super fast. What people are moving here? It looks like these cities median age is only in the low 30s.

Tech workers and Californians.
 

2) Are these suburbs similar to others around the country? Are they more educated? More well off?

They're probably pretty well-educated and similar to other fast-growing sunbelt suburbs.

3) Are these the type of places we can see trending D? Why or why not?

Perhaps over time, but not immediately. The types of people who move to Idaho generally aren't liberal Democrats - at least in the first wave.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I know Boise is pretty liberal, but this question is about it’s suburbs. It looks like Garden City is kind of liberal. Is that correct? My other questions are as follows:
1) Meridian and Nampa seem like they are growing super fast. What people are moving here? It looks like these cities median age is only in the low 30s.
2) Are these suburbs similar to others around the country? Are they more educated? More well off?
3) Are these the type of places we can see trending D? Why or why not?

Hyper anecdotal (I spent several months living in Boise five years ago and have some good friends in the area who I am still in touch with) so take this with mountains of salt, but:

2) They are not especially well-off or educated. These suburbs are much closer to the suburbs of other small cities like Reno than they are to suburbs of a city like Denver. Some highly educated professionals but not in any especially high density. In my experience a lot of these folks were as likely to be employed in service-type industry than they were in the creative industry you see driving blue shifting in other cities, e.g., in Meridian you were as likely to find people working as exterminators or construction management than in software engineering. I also got the impression that the average person moving into the city proper was less liberal than in most other cities, e.g., still more likely to be religious, holding some libertarian views on guns, etc. In my experience this was especially true of men.

That's not to say that suburban D voters don't exist in Boise metro but it's not at Denver, Portland, or KC levels yet.

3) I wouldn't count on outer suburbs trending nearly as quickly as the city. I think if they made if Idaho got a third congressional district centered around Boise (assuming it didn't get chopped into a monstrosity) it would be perennially likely, although not necessarily safe, D.

[Del Tachi]

Stellar population growth and low median ages often point to either immigrants or Mormons.  Are Nampa/Meridian big Mormon enclaves (similar to Pocatello and Idaho Falls)? 

[All Along The Watchtower]

Stellar population growth and low median ages often point to either immigrants or Mormons.  Are Nampa/Meridian big Mormon enclaves (similar to Pocatello and Idaho Falls)? 

Not as big, but Mormons are all over Southern Idaho, as are white evangelicals, many of whom also have a lot of kids...

[Idaho Conservative]

Stellar population growth and low median ages often point to either immigrants or Mormons.  Are Nampa/Meridian big Mormon enclaves (similar to Pocatello and Idaho Falls)? 

a lot of families moving to the suburbs.  Not necessarily mormon.

[ottermax]

I don't know much about Idaho. However as a Washingtonian I find Idaho fascinating politically.

I looked at some of the precinct data and found the Canyon County area interesting. I don't know much about it having only driven through it once, but it is not swinging towards the Democrats and voted strongly for Trump. In fact in the Boise area only Boise proper had a Democratic lean at all.

Remember 2008 when a Democrat won one of the congressional seats?!?! I know times have changed but it does seem like for any gains in the Boise area they have been substantially outnumbered by losses in Northern Idaho.

[Skill and Chance]

I know Boise is pretty liberal, but this question is about it’s suburbs. It looks like Garden City is kind of liberal. Is that correct? My other questions are as follows:
1) Meridian and Nampa seem like they are growing super fast. What people are moving here? It looks like these cities median age is only in the low 30s.
2) Are these suburbs similar to others around the country? Are they more educated? More well off?
3) Are these the type of places we can see trending D? Why or why not?

Hyper anecdotal (I spent several months living in Boise five years ago and have some good friends in the area who I am still in touch with) so take this with mountains of salt, but:

2) They are not especially well-off or educated. These suburbs are much closer to the suburbs of other small cities like Reno than they are to suburbs of a city like Denver. Some highly educated professionals but not in any especially high density. In my experience a lot of these folks were as likely to be employed in service-type industry than they were in the creative industry you see driving blue shifting in other cities, e.g., in Meridian you were as likely to find people working as exterminators or construction management than in software engineering. I also got the impression that the average person moving into the city proper was less liberal than in most other cities, e.g., still more likely to be religious, holding some libertarian views on guns, etc. In my experience this was especially true of men.

That's not to say that suburban D voters don't exist in Boise metro but it's not at Denver, Portland, or KC levels yet.

3) I wouldn't count on outer suburbs trending nearly as quickly as the city. I think if they made if Idaho got a third congressional district centered around Boise (assuming it didn't get chopped into a monstrosity) it would be perennially likely, although not necessarily safe, D.

Idaho has a redistricting commission in their state constitution.  If ID-03 happens in 2031, it's extremely likely to be a compact Boise district.

[Tintrlvr]

I know Boise is pretty liberal, but this question is about it’s suburbs. It looks like Garden City is kind of liberal. Is that correct? My other questions are as follows:
1) Meridian and Nampa seem like they are growing super fast. What people are moving here? It looks like these cities median age is only in the low 30s.
2) Are these suburbs similar to others around the country? Are they more educated? More well off?
3) Are these the type of places we can see trending D? Why or why not?

Hyper anecdotal (I spent several months living in Boise five years ago and have some good friends in the area who I am still in touch with) so take this with mountains of salt, but:

2) They are not especially well-off or educated. These suburbs are much closer to the suburbs of other small cities like Reno than they are to suburbs of a city like Denver. Some highly educated professionals but not in any especially high density. In my experience a lot of these folks were as likely to be employed in service-type industry than they were in the creative industry you see driving blue shifting in other cities, e.g., in Meridian you were as likely to find people working as exterminators or construction management than in software engineering. I also got the impression that the average person moving into the city proper was less liberal than in most other cities, e.g., still more likely to be religious, holding some libertarian views on guns, etc. In my experience this was especially true of men.

That's not to say that suburban D voters don't exist in Boise metro but it's not at Denver, Portland, or KC levels yet.

3) I wouldn't count on outer suburbs trending nearly as quickly as the city. I think if they made if Idaho got a third congressional district centered around Boise (assuming it didn't get chopped into a monstrosity) it would be perennially likely, although not necessarily safe, D.

Idaho has a redistricting commission in their state constitution.  If ID-03 happens in 2031, it's extremely likely to be a compact Boise district.

Agreed, you'd almost certainly end up with a map something like this one (which is basically mandated by the geography since there's no road connections between the panhandle and the central counties along the Montana border):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed8da27a-d1b0-4031-b546-1491ef156df8

The Boise district might be winnable for the Democrats but is still at least Likely R, closer to Safe. The other two are obviously Safe R.