CA-LA Times/UC Berkeley: Sanders 24, Warren 22

[Eraserhead]

white:
Warren 27%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Biden 12%

Latino:
Sanders 32%
Biden 19%
Harris 12%
Warren 11%

black:
Warren 29%
Biden 27%
Sanders 19%
Gabbard 6%

Asian:
Sanders 26%
Warren 24%
Yang 12%
Biden 9%

Who leads in:
LA County: Sanders
San Diego County: Sanders
Orange County: Warren
Inland Empire: Sanders
Other SoCal: Warren
Central Valley: Warren
SF Bay Area: Warren
Other NorCal: Sanders

That black sample looks like trash. It's probably very small.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Biden is going to keep going down, even with black voters. His opponents understand that they need to dig in further into his black support to knock him out and it's now a couple months before February

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kerry just endorsed Biden, but it doesn't help that much

[ProudModerate2]

The California polls are all over the place.
I'm confused.

[NOVA Green]

I think Sanders might be underestimated in the West because of his support among Latinos, so this isn't too surprising.

This....

Now I'm a bit curious about the SUSA recent poll of Cali, which showed Biden with a comfortable lead, including a significant lead among Latinos.

That poll was an LV screen for the topline numbers of some 540 people vs over twice that number in this poll.

The SUSA poll was conducted over a shorter time frame in Nov, although it overlapped with what was essentially a weeklong poll of this one, right before the Thanksgiving Weekend.

This poll certainly looks more like what we have seen elsewhere when it comes to Latino support for Sanders in CA, not just including the 2016 DEM Prim results.....

I suspect the SUSA poll might have had a bad Latino subsample that caused some of those important demographic numbers to go bonkers....

[DrScholl]

It's the delegates that matter, not the total of states won. Placing first in California means nothing if you aren't get enough delegates to remain mathematically viable. That said, winning a state or two before Super Tuesday lends credibility to stay in because the delegate count is still low, but when Super Tuesday rolls around it really becomes about counting delegates. If Biden is really running up a big score in the south (and that probably is going to happen) then Sanders or whoever else will have to do far better than 24% in California to keep up in delegates.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

white:
Warren 27%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Biden 12%

Latino:
Sanders 32%
Biden 19%
Harris 12%
Warren 11%

black:
Warren 29%
Biden 27%
Sanders 19%
Gabbard 6%

Asian:
Sanders 26%
Warren 24%
Yang 12%
Biden 9%

Who leads in:
LA County: Sanders
San Diego County: Sanders
Orange County: Warren
Inland Empire: Sanders
Other SoCal: Warren
Central Valley: Warren
SF Bay Area: Warren
Other NorCal: Sanders

That black sample looks like trash. It's probably very small.

CA has very few black people compared to Latinos and Asians.

[Shadows]

white:
Warren 27%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Biden 12%

Latino:
Sanders 32%
Biden 19%
Harris 12%
Warren 11%

black:
Warren 29%
Biden 27%
Sanders 19%
Gabbard 6%

Asian:
Sanders 26%
Warren 24%
Yang 12%
Biden 9%

Who leads in:
LA County: Sanders
San Diego County: Sanders
Orange County: Warren
Inland Empire: Sanders
Other SoCal: Warren
Central Valley: Warren
SF Bay Area: Warren
Other NorCal: Sanders

Very informative. Sanders lead is almost entirely based on Latino & young voters. Warren still has some presence among progressives & around San Fransisco.

Sanders has to improve his numbers among White people as the field shortens because it is pulling down his numbers.

[NOVA Green]

white:
Warren 27%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Biden 12%

Latino:
Sanders 32%
Biden 19%
Harris 12%
Warren 11%

black:
Warren 29%
Biden 27%
Sanders 19%
Gabbard 6%

Asian:
Sanders 26%
Warren 24%
Yang 12%
Biden 9%

Who leads in:
LA County: Sanders
San Diego County: Sanders
Orange County: Warren
Inland Empire: Sanders
Other SoCal: Warren
Central Valley: Warren
SF Bay Area: Warren
Other NorCal: Sanders

Very informative. Sanders lead is almost entirely based on Latino & young voters. Warren still has some presence among progressives & around San Fransisco.

Sanders has to improve his numbers among White people as the field shortens because it is pulling down his numbers.

Well, if we want to focus on Ethnicity, it's also important to look at the overall breakdown of the "Progressive" wing of the Dem Party in Cali vs the "Centrist" wing of the DEM Party...

Let's just call Sanders/Warren and even perhaps Tulsi as the "Progressive" wing, and let's call Biden and Buttigieg as the "Centrist". Not quite sure how to characterize Harris and Yang....

So break that down further:

Anglos: 46% "Progressive" vs 30% "Centrist"
Latinos: 43% "Progressive" vs 19-30% "Centrist"---- depending upon Harris Voters
Blacks: 48-54% "Progressive" vs 27% "Centrist"
Asians: 50% "Progressive" vs 9% "Centrist"

So..... any way you look at it Cali LV DEMs are breaking hard Progressive vs centrists, and the interesting takeaway is that Harris clouds the equation with Latinos, as does Yang with Asian Americans....

Bernie played a decent ball game with HRC in '16 among Anglo Voters, and quite frankly looking at the fact that he won the City of Oakland tells something about his performance among East Bay African-American, Asian-American, and Latino working class voters (Just to use one example)....