Trump vs. Biden, Trump vs. Sanders

[pbrower2a]

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Steyer (and Warren)  having dropped out of the race for the nomination and Warren now irrelevant, Trump facing no meaningful opposition in most states in the Republican primaries and caucuses, and no announded Third-Party we are basically down to two scenarios: Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Sanders. We have yet to hear of any announcement of any Third Party or independent challenge, but paradoxically we have room for such should it happen. Except for a Third-Party nominee or independent candidate we are going to see no new candidate for President.

So here are two new blank maps for your use:

Suggested legend:

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than 50%
exact tie (white)
the Democrat leading with less than 50%
the Democrat with 50% to 54.9%
the Democrat with 55% or more

I'm not going to distinguish anything over 55%; the difference between winning 55% in a state and 80% is but a diversion from the reality that we must recall from 2016: winning the Presidential election results not so much from getting the greatest number of votes but instead in getting the right votes.

Third-Party or independent nominees can be shown separately in green with shades to suggest their relevance:

Support........saturation

2% or less............1
2% but under 4%..2
4% but under 6%..3
6% but under 8%..4
8% but under 10%.5
10% to 15%..........6
15% to 25%..........7
25% or more.........9

Use an asterisk for a plurality for a Third Party or independent candidate, and two for a majority for such a candidate.  I do not expect to see such a map for some time, if at all.

[pbrower2a]

Inputting some data:

California:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/2020030

Biden 62- Trump 26
Sanders 60- Trump 27

Georgia:

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/uga-poll-trump-builds-leads-georgia-race-for-senate-tightens/zjoPIXUKCVmwOHXdDMbfQL/
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6793459/SPIA-GE-Poll-Results.pdf

FEB 24-MAR 2, 2020
B/C
University of Georgia
1,117   LV




Trump 50-42 Bloomy
Trump 51-43 Biden
Trump 52-42  Warren
Trump 52-41 Bernie

Missouri:


Biden - 42%
Trump - 52%


Sanders - 37%
Trump - 52%



1050 LV, conducted 2/26-2/27, +/- 3%

Found on 538.

North Carolina:

"Turning to potential matchups in the November general election, President Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in a virtual tie among registered voters in North Carolina (48% for Biden and 46% for Donald Trump). The same is true for a matchup between Trump and Bloomberg (46% for Trump and 45% for Michael Bloomberg). Of the remaining top-tier Democrats, Trump leads Bernie Sanders 48% to 43%; and Trump leads Warren 49% to 41%."

South Carolina:

Trump 48
Sanders 42

Trump 48
Biden 42




https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200228_SC.pdf

Texas: 1-point leads for Trump with about 45% against Biden or Sanders

Virginia: anyone else 59%, Trump 38%

Wisconsin:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Sanders 48
Trump 46

Biden 46
Trump 46

Biden vs. Trump

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than 50%
exact tie (white)
Sanders leading with less than 50%
Sanders with 50% to 54.9%
Sanders with 55% or more

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than 50%
exact tie (white)
Sanders leading with less than 50%
Sanders with 50% to 54.9%
Sanders with 55% or more

[pbrower2a]

New matches -- Arizona and Maine.

Arizona: PPP, March 2-3, 666 RV

Trump approval: 45/51

Biden 48, Trump 47
Trump 47, Sanders 46


Maine: PPP, March 2-3, 672 RV

Trump approval: 42/56

Biden 52, Trump 42
Sanders 52, Trump 42

Biden vs. Trump

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than 50%
exact tie (white)
Biden leading with less than 50%
Biden with 50% to 54.9%
Biden with 55% or more

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than 50%
exact tie (white)
Sanders leading with less than 50%
Sanders with 50% to 54.9%
Sanders with 55% or more

[pbrower2a]

(Quinnipiac)       MI     PA    

Biden                 47      50    
Trump                43      42      

Sanders             48       48    
Trump                43      44  

Alabama (old poll, but undeniably valid):

Alabama: Mason-Dixon, Feb. 4-6, 625 RV


Trump 58, Biden 38
Trump 60, Sanders 37

Colorado: Trump has no chance

Delaware (old poll, but we see few of Delaware): Biden demolishes Trump 56-40, Sanders has a 1-point lead over Trump.

Florida, UNF

Trump 48, Sanders 48
Biden 49, Trump 48

Maryland, Goucher:

  61 percent Bernie Sanders/34 percent Donald Trump
 60 percent Joe Biden/35 percent Donald Trump

Montana, a university poll -- Trump hits 56% against both Biden and Sanders

Nevada, Sanders 52, Trump 41
Biden 44, Trump 41

New Jersey (Fairleigh-Dickinson): Sanders 53-35; Biden 53-36

New York (Marist as I recall) -- Trump has no chance

Oklahoma:

62-34 Trump/Joe
63-34 Trump/Bernie

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Sooner_Survey_Feb_18_2020.pdf

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than50%
exact tie (white)
Biden leading with less than 50%
Biden with 50% to 54.9%
Biden with 55% or more

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than 50%
exact tie (white)
Sanders leading with less than 50%
Sanders with 50% to 54.9%
Sanders with 55% or more

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi:


Trump - 56
Biden - 41

Trump - 59
Sanders - 36

625 RV, conducted Feb. 26-28
https://yallpolitics.com/2020/03/05/new-mason-dixon-poll-shows-trump-hyde-smith-with-comfortable-leads/

Fairly close to the ethnic divide.

UTAH:

Sanders - 33
Trump - 50

Biden - 33
Trump - 50

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/3/4/21164798/donald-trump-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-election-president-democratic-poll-deseret-news-super-tuesday

Rather weak for a Republican -- in Utah. I'm guessing that a third-party nominee could easily cut a Trump win in Utah to a mere plurality. But it is still Utah, and we know nothing about third-Party and independent campaigns yet.

Mormons are the definitive family-values conservatives. Donald Trump is still the worst fit for a Republican Presidential nominee for Utah since Thomas E. Dewy... who lost. (Goldwater lost Utah in 1964, but he got a higher share of the total vote in 1964 than Trump got in Utah in 2016.

A third-Party independent or conservative nominee could take some votes away from Trump. That Trump barely scrapes 50 (50 does win, of course) means that he will win the state unless the President is rash enough to "triple-dog-dare" Mitt Romney to run against him.

I can't imagine any Democrat winning Utah until the state has demographics like those of neighboring Arizona, Colorado, or Nevada. In a way it would be cute to see a patch of Atlas green indicating that someone not in one of the two main Parties winning Utah without being a racist secession from the Democratic Party -- since 1924.  

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than50%
exact tie (white)
Biden leading with less than 50%
Biden with 50% to 54.9%
Biden with 55% or more

Trump 55% or higher
Trump 50% to 54.9%
Trump leading but with less than 50%
exact tie (white)
Sanders leading with less than 50%
Sanders with 50% to 54.9%
Sanders with 55% or more

[Ljube]

Just do Trump - Biden.
Forget about Sanders.
He is a loser anyway.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sanders only hope is if Biden and Trump both get Coroavirus.

Sad but true.

[pbrower2a]

Just do Trump - Biden.
Forget about Sanders.
He is a loser anyway.

I came up with these maps only after a nominal seven-person race became a two-person race practically overnight as Buttegieg, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, Steyer, and Warren ended their campaigns. 

I will wait until Sanders either drops out of the race or is so far behind that Biden has effectively clinched. For now I still consider Sanders relevant; I also see the relevance of showing the difference between likely performance of Sanders and Biden against Trump until such a difference becomes meaningless. I believe that it has informative value to people still deciding how they will vote.

At this point I expect Biden to win -- but a week ago I thought Sanders had the edge. The Super Tuesday vote convinces me that Biden has a much bigger edge than Sanders had, and that Biden's edge is nearly unsurmountable.

But for a sports analogy... the Astros are down 4-1 in the seventh inning coming up to bat and score   ten runs. The game isn't over, but the strong position of the Angels going into the seventh inning has been changed into a far-better position for the Astros than the Angels recently had.