Is a Democrat more likely to win Iowa or Florida

[OSR stands with Israel]

I say Iowa as Trump's approvals have been consistently higher in FL, Republicans did better in FL than IA in 2018 and Iowa is more elastic.


I think Trump wins Florida 50-49 vs Biden while loses Iowa 50-48 

[Roblox]

My state sucks and all but I'd still bet on it more than a state that voted 8 points to its right in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

lmao

[Pericles]

Clearly Florida.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My state sucks and all but I'd still bet on it more than a state that voted 8 points to its right in 2016.

Iowa is prone to huge swing unlike Florida.  Also in 2018 Dems won the House vote in Iowa by 4 points while losing the house vote in Florida by over 5 points and won half the statewide races there while Dems in FL lost all but one state wide race including losing a race where they held the Senate seat.

IA is basically the Republicans NH while FL is the Republicans NV where Democrats are much likely to win by over 5 point margins in NH but also more likely to win NV as a whole than NH

[538Electoral]

Is there really any debate between a state that voted 1 point for Trump and a state that voted almost 10 points for him?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is there really any debate between a state that voted 1 point for Trump and a state that voted almost 10 points for him?

Yes Statewide approval ratings, results in 2018, elasticity

[Woody]

[Xing]

Clearly ultra-elastic Iowa, in which Republican wins in 2014, 2016, and 2018 were all just flukes, because it's filled to the brim with WWC #Populists who will sprint to the polls to vote for their hero, Scranton Joe (though neoliberal elitist socialist Warren would lose it by 15%+.) Florida, on the other hand, is ultra-inelastic (unless a communist/socialist like Sanders or Warren is the nominee, in which case it'll magically become elastic and vote Republican by at least 8%), and the Democrats have a hard ceiling of a 0.1284852% loss, so even a ridiculously strong and electable candidate like Biden would still just barely lose Florida.

In all seriousness, regardless of the Democratic candidate, FL is Tilt R at most for Trump (even against Sanders or Warren), while IA is Likely R.

[Gracile]

How a place voted in 2004 is basically irrelevant these days.

[W]

honestly and i will be lambasted for this iowa, candidates are spending a lotta time there while florida is essentially sliding into a bunch of boomer retirement communities. the fact the governorship and senate seat weren't won by dems in 2018 is a horrible sign, while iowa went from 3/4 republican congressional seats to 1/4 dems taking 2.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Clearly ultra-elastic Iowa, in which Republican wins in 2014, 2016, and 2018 were all just flukes, because it's filled to the brim with WWC #Populists who will sprint to the polls to vote for their hero, Scranton Joe (though neoliberal elitist socialist Warren would lose it by 15%+.) Florida, on the other hand, is ultra-inelastic (unless a communist/socialist like Sanders or Warren is the nominee, in which case it'll magically become elastic and vote Republican by at least 8%), and the Democrats have a hard ceiling of a 0.1284852% loss, so even a ridiculously strong and electable candidate like Biden would still just barely lose Florida.

In all seriousness, regardless of the Democratic candidate, FL is Tilt R at most for Trump (even against Sanders or Warren), while IA is Likely R.

Republicans did not win Iowa in 2018 , the Dems won the House popular vote in Iowa by 4 points while the Dems lost the house popular vote by 5 points .


If you wanna judge state wide races well Democrats won 3/6 in Iowa whole they won 1 in Florida

[Xing]

Clearly ultra-elastic Iowa, in which Republican wins in 2014, 2016, and 2018 were all just flukes, because it's filled to the brim with WWC #Populists who will sprint to the polls to vote for their hero, Scranton Joe (though neoliberal elitist socialist Warren would lose it by 15%+.) Florida, on the other hand, is ultra-inelastic (unless a communist/socialist like Sanders or Warren is the nominee, in which case it'll magically become elastic and vote Republican by at least 8%), and the Democrats have a hard ceiling of a 0.1284852% loss, so even a ridiculously strong and electable candidate like Biden would still just barely lose Florida.

In all seriousness, regardless of the Democratic candidate, FL is Tilt R at most for Trump (even against Sanders or Warren), while IA is Likely R.

Republicans did not win Iowa in 2018 , the Dems won the House popular vote in Iowa by 4 points while the Dems lost the house popular vote by 5 points .


If you wanna judge state wide races well Democrats won 3/6 in Iowa whole they won 1 in Florida

And how does Steve King dragging down the Republican House vote in IA while Democrats underperformed in FL-26 and FL-27 prove that Trump is going to crater in IA while holding all of his support or even gaining some in FL? I don't remember Trump doing better in NV than NC, even though Republicans did quite a bit better in the House vote in NV in 2014 than in NC.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Clearly ultra-elastic Iowa, in which Republican wins in 2014, 2016, and 2018 were all just flukes, because it's filled to the brim with WWC #Populists who will sprint to the polls to vote for their hero, Scranton Joe (though neoliberal elitist socialist Warren would lose it by 15%+.) Florida, on the other hand, is ultra-inelastic (unless a communist/socialist like Sanders or Warren is the nominee, in which case it'll magically become elastic and vote Republican by at least 8%), and the Democrats have a hard ceiling of a 0.1284852% loss, so even a ridiculously strong and electable candidate like Biden would still just barely lose Florida.

In all seriousness, regardless of the Democratic candidate, FL is Tilt R at most for Trump (even against Sanders or Warren), while IA is Likely R.

Republicans did not win Iowa in 2018 , the Dems won the House popular vote in Iowa by 4 points while the Dems lost the house popular vote by 5 points .


If you wanna judge state wide races well Democrats won 3/6 in Iowa whole they won 1 in Florida

And how does Steve King dragging down the Republican House vote in IA while Democrats underperformed in FL-26 and FL-27 prove that Trump is going to crater in IA while holding all of his support or even gaining some in FL? I don't remember Trump doing better in NV than NC, even though Republicans did quite a bit better in the House vote in NV in 2014 than in NC.

Florida is the Republicans Nevada while Iowa is their New Hampshire in the sense that New Hampshire like Iowa are prone to huge swings while Florida like Nevada has a very very stubborn lean .

[Xing]

Clearly ultra-elastic Iowa, in which Republican wins in 2014, 2016, and 2018 were all just flukes, because it's filled to the brim with WWC #Populists who will sprint to the polls to vote for their hero, Scranton Joe (though neoliberal elitist socialist Warren would lose it by 15%+.) Florida, on the other hand, is ultra-inelastic (unless a communist/socialist like Sanders or Warren is the nominee, in which case it'll magically become elastic and vote Republican by at least 8%), and the Democrats have a hard ceiling of a 0.1284852% loss, so even a ridiculously strong and electable candidate like Biden would still just barely lose Florida.

In all seriousness, regardless of the Democratic candidate, FL is Tilt R at most for Trump (even against Sanders or Warren), while IA is Likely R.

Republicans did not win Iowa in 2018 , the Dems won the House popular vote in Iowa by 4 points while the Dems lost the house popular vote by 5 points .


If you wanna judge state wide races well Democrats won 3/6 in Iowa whole they won 1 in Florida

And how does Steve King dragging down the Republican House vote in IA while Democrats underperformed in FL-26 and FL-27 prove that Trump is going to crater in IA while holding all of his support or even gaining some in FL? I don't remember Trump doing better in NV than NC, even though Republicans did quite a bit better in the House vote in NV in 2014 than in NC.

Florida is the Republicans Nevada while Iowa is their New Hampshire in the sense that New Hampshire like Iowa are prone to huge swings while Florida like Nevada has a very very stubborn lean .

New Hampshire is susceptible to huge swings? Funny, I don't think Senator Scott Brown (R-NH) or still Senator Ayotte got the memo. I also don't remember Heller and Laxalt only losing by 0.5% or less. Mark my words, Iowa is not voting left of Florida, even is Sanders is the nominee. If Trump loses Iowa, he's lost the election in a huge landslide, and has absolutely lost Florida as well.

[TDAS04]

The one Trump carried by a point, not the one he won by 9.

[MT Treasurer]

Few things are more dishonest and pathetic than cherry-picking election results to promote your own little ridiculous narrative (apparently "House popular vote" and """elasticity""" are the only useful indicators in IA, while in FL it’s the 2018 SEN/GOV results, in GA it’s the fact that Democrats didn’t win a single statewide office in 2018, in NV it’s "calculated" 2016->2018 "trends", etc.).

Trump barely won FL by supercharging rural/exurban turnout and maxing out the (declining) White vote to a level not seen in three decades. If he’s hemorrhaging enough White/rural support (or voter turnout among those groups) to lose a Republican-trending 90% white state he won by 9% in 2016, there’s no way in hell he’s winning a 60% white state he only won by 1% in 2016 after going through hell and high water (and no, he’s not matching Scott's or DeSantis' numbers in Miami-Dade County).

Using Occam's Razor isn’t always a bad approach, try it out.

[MT Treasurer]

Clearly ultra-elastic Iowa, in which Republican wins in 2014, 2016, and 2018 were all just flukes, because it's filled to the brim with WWC #Populists who will sprint to the polls to vote for their hero, Scranton Joe (though neoliberal elitist socialist Warren would lose it by 15%+.) Florida, on the other hand, is ultra-inelastic (unless a communist/socialist like Sanders or Warren is the nominee, in which case it'll magically become elastic and vote Republican by at least 8%), and the Democrats have a hard ceiling of a 0.1284852% loss, so even a ridiculously strong and electable candidate like Biden would still just barely lose Florida.

In all seriousness, regardless of the Democratic candidate, FL is Tilt R at most for Trump (even against Sanders or Warren), while IA is Likely R.

Republicans did not win Iowa in 2018 , the Dems won the House popular vote in Iowa by 4 points while the Dems lost the house popular vote by 5 points .


If you wanna judge state wide races well Democrats won 3/6 in Iowa whole they won 1 in Florida

And how does Steve King dragging down the Republican House vote in IA while Democrats underperformed in FL-26 and FL-27 prove that Trump is going to crater in IA while holding all of his support or even gaining some in FL? I don't remember Trump doing better in NV than NC, even though Republicans did quite a bit better in the House vote in NV in 2014 than in NC.

Florida is the Republicans Nevada while Iowa is their New Hampshire in the sense that New Hampshire like Iowa are prone to huge swings while Florida like Nevada has a very very stubborn lean .

This is quite possibly the worst counterargument I’ve ever read on this forum. You didn’t address a single point he made, even though all of them are valid.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither will vote D, Iowa is safe R and so is FL.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not as bearish on Iowa as so many others are, but Florida. Just barely. The Democrat won't actually win either of them though.

[morgankingsley]

Florida

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida is too conservative and Reynolds is extremely popular

[SN2903]

Iowa barely but they have no chance in either.

[Alben Barkley]

Voting Iowa over Florida in this poll is just to blatantly spit in the face of absolutely all logic, reason, and math that has been discovered over the course of thousands of years of human history, by some of the greatest geniuses of all-time.

And for what?

Some ridiculous meme about Florida being Titanium R and Iowa being ElAsTiC?

For shame.

[Podgy the Bear]

I can see Trump's margin go down in IA but go up in FL.  The influx of retirees to SW Florida, suburban Tampa Bay, and the Villages is enormous--a large conservative population that votes.