Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 27, 2020, 12:49:21 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Rate UT-04 for 2020
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Which party will win Utah's 4th congressional district in 2020?
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Tilt D/Tossup
 
#5
Tilt R/Tossup
 
#6
Lean R
 
#7
Likely R
 
#8
Safe R
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Rate UT-04 for 2020  (Read 556 times)
LCameronOR
LCameronAL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 997
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 09, 2019, 02:10:11 pm »

This district has a PVI of R+13. Currently represented by Democrat Ben McAdams, UT-04 consists of a portion of Salt Lake City in addition to a strip south of SLC. In 2012, Romney won this district by 40%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 14%.

Republican challengers include Kathleen Anderson, Kim Coleman, and Daniel Hemmert.

Recent Results
2018: D +0.3
2016: R +12.5
2014: R +3.3
2012: D +0.3
Logged
I Beg to Dream and Differ
SvenTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 996
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.81, S: -6.82

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2019, 02:15:55 pm »

Tilt D and the likeliest hold of all of our red districts. I was on the ground here and people wildly underestimate how quickly SLC is rocketing left.
Logged
Councilor Gracile
gracile
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,894
Switzerland


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2019, 02:23:21 pm »

Tossup/Tilt D. I can see McAdams benefiting a lot from Trumpís relative unpopularity with Mormons, and this seatís tendency to vote for Democrats in his mold. I actually think he will be the vulnerable incumbent that will outrun the Democratic presidential candidate the most.
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,407
Ukraine
Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2019, 02:29:51 pm »

Lean D. The least likely red district, represented by Democrat, to flip
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,764
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2019, 02:45:26 pm »

Tilt R. Not sure why people are so confident about McAdams winning. In this case, it's pretty clear why the district trended so Democratic.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,338
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2019, 03:22:36 pm »

Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"?
Logged
I Beg to Dream and Differ
SvenTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 996
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.81, S: -6.82

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2019, 03:23:06 pm »

Tilt R. Not sure why people are so confident about McAdams winning. In this case, it's pretty clear why the district trended so Democratic.

Yeah, SLC generally becoming vast miles more blue, something which was happening even without the influence of Trump but which has been accelerated by his presidency.
Logged
SnowLabrador
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,313
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2019, 03:28:51 pm »

Likely R. Without Evan McMullin on the ballot, Trump will win the district by 20+ points. Also, McAdams only won by about a fourth of a point last year, and I expect 2020 to be a significantly less blue year than 2018.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,915
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2019, 03:33:01 pm »

Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one wonít be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isnít going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district thatís only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.
Logged
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,241
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2019, 03:34:41 pm »

Likely R. Without Evan McMullin on the ballot, Trump will win the district by 20+ points. Also, McAdams only won by about a fourth of a point last year, and I expect 2020 to be a significantly less blue year than 2018.

We certainly don't know yet whether there will be an Evan McMullin on the ballot or not.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,250


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2019, 03:52:59 pm »

Lean D

Trump is not a great shape with mormons and McAdams is probably favoured as a ''check and balance'' on Trump
Logged
Calthrina950
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2019, 07:38:57 pm »

Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one wonít be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isnít going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district thatís only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.

Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide.
Logged
Soccer Moms Against Sanders
Roblox
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 786


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2019, 07:43:03 pm »

Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one wonít be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isnít going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district thatís only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.

Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide.

Also Brindisi. Trump +16 seat.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,555


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2019, 08:27:53 pm »

Anyway I think the best numbers to expect in Utah are probably 08 Mccain numbers.
Logged
DuPage will vote for Bernie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,665


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2019, 09:07:10 pm »

Lean Democrat. McAdams wins by 2 to 4%.

Most McMullin voters in Salt Lake County generally are very open to Democrats down the  ballot.

This district has been weird all decade.

2012: Everyone expected Matheson to lose in the Romney wave. Matheson won.

2014: Everyone expected Love to landslide in the GOP wave but Owens did impressively well.

2016: Everyone expected a close race but Love landslide Owners.

2018: Most expected Love to win but McAdams upsetted.
Logged
Sen. Dean Heller
Haley/Ryan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,105
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: 1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2019, 09:24:57 pm »

Why is everyone acting like this is a SLC only district?
Logged
Calthrina950
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2019, 10:35:45 pm »

Tilt or Lean D (voted Lean D). This one wonít be as easy for Republicans as conventional wisdom might suggest, and Trump isnít going to do particularly well here anyway. This is a district thatís only going to become less favorable to Republicans going forward.

Pretty much this. While this district will almost certainly vote for Trump again next year, I suspect that it will be by an underwhelming margin. Moreover, Salt Lake County, as has been pointed out on here, is becoming more Democratic, and this district will become more unfriendly to Republicans down the road. Nevertheless, McAdams is by no means safe, and will have to fight to secure reelection. This seat, along with those of Horn, Cunningham, Torres-Small, and Golden, are among the most likely to flip back to Republicans even in the event of a Trump defeat nationwide.

Also Brindisi. Trump +16 seat.

This is true. I forgot about Brindisi.
Logged
Oregon Blue Dog
meepcheese16
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: -2.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2019, 01:05:56 pm »

Tossup/Tilt D. Wonder if the Utah GOP tries to crack SLC even more in 2020, or concedes this district to the Dems. Once Trump is out of office, this seat will probably shift back to it's Republican roots, though.
Logged
Tartarus Sauce
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,322
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2019, 01:57:55 pm »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 02:01:47 pm by Tartarus Sauce »

Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"?

It literally split its ticket for a Democrat while Romney was crushing by 40% in 2012, just how much do you think Trumpís going to improve his margin by (and itís not even a guarantee that he will)? Mia Love actually underperformed Trumpís margin in 2016 (albeit with a much better topline performance). While it only narrowly flipped Dem in a Dem wave, it also only narrowly flipped Republican in a Republican wave.

This district is a serious contender for being the least connected to national environment in 2020 if its past is any indicator.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,555


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 10, 2019, 02:18:57 pm »

Lean R. Why do so many people think a district (also the state as a whole) where Trump is overwhelmingly likely to improve his margin is more likely to vote for a Democrat in the House who won by <1% in a wave midterm? Apparently all a district needs for a Democrat to win are suburbs that "are zooming to the left"?

It literally split its ticket for a Democrat while Romney was crushing by 40% in 2012, just how much do you think Trumpís going to improve his margin by (and itís not even a guarantee that he will)? Mia Love actually underperformed Trumpís margin in 2016 (albeit with a much better topline performance). While it only narrowly flipped Dem in a Dem wave, it also only narrowly flipped Republican in a Republican wave.

This district is a serious contender for being the least connected to national environment in 2020 if its past is any indicator.


Uh yes he will improve his margin lol. It has utah county too which is 51% Trump 33% Mcmuffin and17% Clinton. I predict 55% Trump 39% D and the rest 3rd party. This is similar Mccains 2008 numbers which is what I expect.
Logged
TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,757
Nepal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2019, 03:55:16 pm »

Lean D.  Closer to tilt than to likely, I guess.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC