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  Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...
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Question: The old Confederacy, sans Virginia?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Author Topic: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...  (Read 1199 times)
TDAS04
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« on: December 08, 2019, 11:36:16 am »

After the 2020 elections?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2019, 11:58:42 am »

As of now I wouldn't bet on it. Jones is obviously a significant underdog and the Dem candidates in North Carolina, Georgia and Texas don't seem that strong. But it's still almost a year out, and things could change.
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Councilor Gracile
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« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2019, 12:15:26 pm »

I'll say no at the moment, but NC/GA/TX are definitely worth keeping an eye on.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2019, 12:41:26 pm »

NC probably will flip
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2019, 01:12:47 pm »

Going to say yes because...

NC has about a 35% chance of flipping

Both GA seats have about a 35% chance of flipping (could be higher or lower pending the candidate)

TX has about a 15% chance of flipping

AL has about a 5% chance of NOT flipping

In terms of probability, it seems likely (a 78% chance) that at least one of these will flip (though I admit this is a bit of a flawed approach to this problem).
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2019, 01:47:15 pm »

Going to say yes because...

NC has about a 35% chance of flipping

Both GA seats have about a 35% chance of flipping (could be higher or lower pending the candidate)

TX has about a 15% chance of flipping

AL has about a 5% chance of NOT flipping

In terms of probability, it seems likely (a 78% chance) that at least one of these will flip (though I admit this is a bit of a flawed approach to this problem).

Too high, especially when you see who are the democrats who are running in these races
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2019, 01:50:31 pm »

I would say ''no'' at the moment, AL will likely flip back to republicans but there is at the same time a 30% to 35% chance that they lose NC, so it's not a definite ''no''
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2019, 02:02:18 pm »

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Doug Jones will be re-elected in a miracle upset.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2019, 02:12:51 pm »

If a Democrat wins the Presidency I would say thereís a >50% chance that Democrats won at least one of NC or GA in the Senate races. If Trump wins re-election, probably not.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2019, 02:20:32 pm »

Their best chance is in NC, followed by the two GA seats. Right now itís more likely than not that there wonít be, but Iíd say thereís certainly a chance.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2019, 06:48:26 pm »

Good question. Jones is an underdog (but not DOA) regardless of what happens in the presidential race, but even (especially?) if Trump wins reelection, I could see them losing a GA runoff because just enough Republicans stay home and Democrats turn out like for those special elections. If Trump loses reelection, Tillis might go down too.

Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.
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Forumlurker161
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« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2019, 06:53:46 pm »

No, but some seats would flip in 2022 Assuming we donít become a de facto dictatorship
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2019, 08:01:58 pm »

Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   
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President Pericles
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« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2019, 09:04:01 pm »

They probably have at least a 1/5 or 1/4 chance in four races-the two Georgia races, Texas and North Carolina (this one being a pure tossup), and a very slight chance in Alabama. The odds of getting 1 of these 5 races are probably over 50% (even with the outcomes are correlated), despite Democrats not being clear favorites in any races. So my answer is yes.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2019, 01:57:47 am »

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Doug Jones will be re-elected in a miracle upset.

How on God's green earth?
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2019, 02:36:18 am »

Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2019, 02:48:37 am »

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Doug Jones will be re-elected in a miracle upset.

How on God's green earth?

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2019, 03:10:47 am »

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. Tongue But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)
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President Pericles
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« Reply #18 on: December 09, 2019, 04:05:19 am »

Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.

Tbh I agree with you there, Moore's chances are very small, but it is typical Atlas to think he has a significant chance.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: December 09, 2019, 05:10:36 am »

There wont be any Rs representatives representing New England. Of course there will, the Senate impeachment trial will move to the Senate, and the R Senators up for reelection will be vulnerable like Tillis, McSally, Ernst and Collins.

As I said before, the election map that looks like today  will look different than what it does tomorrow
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #20 on: December 09, 2019, 09:10:11 am »

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. Tongue But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)

Well, I didn't include Kander and Orman because they didn't win (even if they clearly won a good amount of Trump voters) ; but yeah I agree with your broader point, it's really sad that so many republican voters are gullible enough to fall again and again in the ''moderate democrat'' trap.

I can eventually understand Trump/Manchin or Trump/Edwards voters, but Trump/Brown and Trump/Tester voters are really schizophrenic
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UncleSam
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« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2019, 01:18:29 pm »

Going to say yes because...

NC has about a 35% chance of flipping

Both GA seats have about a 35% chance of flipping (could be higher or lower pending the candidate)

TX has about a 15% chance of flipping

AL has about a 5% chance of NOT flipping

In terms of probability, it seems likely (a 78% chance) that at least one of these will flip (though I admit this is a bit of a flawed approach to this problem).
Senate races are not independent outcomes. Even if your ascribed probabilities are reflective of reality, this approach to calculating an overall probability of at least one flipping (or Alabama not flipping) is not valid. The actual chance, given these individual chances, is probably closer to a coin toss.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2019, 01:50:58 pm »
« Edited: December 09, 2019, 01:55:33 pm by Jeff Sessions Hack »

Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.  

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.

Anyone who thinks Moore will win the primary at this point is stupid.

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. Tongue But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)

you mean he will have a 0.01% chance instead of a 0.001% chance?

Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

This is flat-out dumb.
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2019, 04:28:11 pm »

Good question. Jones is an underdog (but not DOA) regardless of what happens in the presidential race, but even (especially?) if Trump wins reelection, I could see them losing a GA runoff because just enough Republicans stay home and Democrats turn out like for those special elections. If Trump loses reelection, Tillis might go down too.

Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

They....already did exactly that with every other statewide office?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: December 09, 2019, 04:47:46 pm »

Quote
Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

They....already did exactly that with every other statewide office?

Yeah, how could Democrats possibly find another 50k votes in Georgia of all places between 2018 and 2022? Literally impossible, even in another Democratic wave. At best they lose by 0.1264579%.
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