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  Will there be any Democratic senators left representing... (search mode)
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Question: The old Confederacy, sans Virginia?
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Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...  (Read 1179 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: December 08, 2019, 06:48:26 pm »

Good question. Jones is an underdog (but not DOA) regardless of what happens in the presidential race, but even (especially?) if Trump wins reelection, I could see them losing a GA runoff because just enough Republicans stay home and Democrats turn out like for those special elections. If Trump loses reelection, Tillis might go down too.

Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.
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« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2019, 03:10:47 am »

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. Tongue But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2019, 04:47:46 pm »

Quote
Probably slightly more likely than not that there wonít be any, but honestly, even if thatís the case, it will only be for two years. Thereís no way in hell Republicans hold the GA seat in a Trump midterm, and even in a Biden midterm it would be vulnerable.

They....already did exactly that with every other statewide office?

Yeah, how could Democrats possibly find another 50k votes in Georgia of all places between 2018 and 2022? Literally impossible, even in another Democratic wave. At best they lose by 0.1264579%.
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« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2019, 01:49:47 am »

It's not impossible. But it's super dumb to say it's inevitable, or that Republicans have no way in hell of holding it.

I went a little too far there, but Democrats would almost certainly be favored to win the seat, even if only slightly. Either way, Iím not sure someone who thinks NV is Tilt R in 2020 (a super dumb prediction) and that AZ/GA voted/will vote "10 points to the right of WI" (a super dumb statement) should be one to call other people's predictions dumb.
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