Lean yes. They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins). They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.
You should not count on Moore winning the primary.
Tbh I agree with you there, Moore's chances are very small, but it is typical Atlas to think he has a significant chance.