Will there be any Democratic senators left representing... (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2024, 09:42:06 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Will there be any Democratic senators left representing... (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: The old Confederacy, sans Virginia?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...  (Read 2173 times)
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,111


« on: December 08, 2019, 09:04:01 PM »

They probably have at least a 1/5 or 1/4 chance in four races-the two Georgia races, Texas and North Carolina (this one being a pure tossup), and a very slight chance in Alabama. The odds of getting 1 of these 5 races are probably over 50% (even with the outcomes are correlated), despite Democrats not being clear favorites in any races. So my answer is yes.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,111


« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2019, 04:05:19 AM »

Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.

Tbh I agree with you there, Moore's chances are very small, but it is typical Atlas to think he has a significant chance.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 14 queries.