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  Will there be any Democratic senators left representing... (search mode)
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Question: The old Confederacy, sans Virginia?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Will there be any Democratic senators left representing...  (Read 1189 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: December 08, 2019, 01:47:15 pm »

Going to say yes because...

NC has about a 35% chance of flipping

Both GA seats have about a 35% chance of flipping (could be higher or lower pending the candidate)

TX has about a 15% chance of flipping

AL has about a 5% chance of NOT flipping

In terms of probability, it seems likely (a 78% chance) that at least one of these will flip (though I admit this is a bit of a flawed approach to this problem).

Too high, especially when you see who are the democrats who are running in these races
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2019, 01:50:31 pm »

I would say ''no'' at the moment, AL will likely flip back to republicans but there is at the same time a 30% to 35% chance that they lose NC, so it's not a definite ''no''
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2019, 02:36:18 am »

Lean yes.  They aren't favored in any one race, but between NC/GA they are more likely than not to flip one out of the 3 seats (probably NC if Trump loses, GA-Special Runoff if Trump wins).  They also have like a 20% chance in Texas (and some potential for it to be less correlated with what happens in NC/GA because of the state's different demographics) and as of today Moore is still running in the AL primary.   

You should not count on Moore winning the primary.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2019, 02:48:37 am »

I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Doug Jones will be re-elected in a miracle upset.

How on God's green earth?

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2019, 09:10:11 am »

Even if I think that Jones is the clear underdog and that his chances of being reelected are no better than 25%, it is very clear that a signficant segment of Trump voters are very open to voting for a democrat when the democrat in question is a white old(er) man (Manchin, Tester, Brown, JBE, Bullock, Peterson, Brindisi are the  best living examples).    

Kander and Orman arenít that old. Tongue But yeah, itís a shame because we could easily lose the Senate in 2020 or 2022 because of those voters.

(As for AL, I agree that Jones is the underdog, but heís definitely more likely to beat Tuberville than Byrne or even Sessions.)

Well, I didn't include Kander and Orman because they didn't win (even if they clearly won a good amount of Trump voters) ; but yeah I agree with your broader point, it's really sad that so many republican voters are gullible enough to fall again and again in the ''moderate democrat'' trap.

I can eventually understand Trump/Manchin or Trump/Edwards voters, but Trump/Brown and Trump/Tester voters are really schizophrenic
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