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  Is the Uk election Johnson vs Corbyn result a prelude to Trump vs Sanders?
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Question: Is the Uk election between Johnson/Corbyn a good barometer for Trump vs Sanders?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 120

Author Topic: Is the Uk election Johnson vs Corbyn result a prelude to Trump vs Sanders?  (Read 1854 times)
MissScarlett
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« on: December 08, 2019, 07:07:57 pm »

Reading up and talking to folks I know and Corbyn/sanders are very similar in their political beliefs.

Momentum (labor group) are very similar to the young Turks/justice democrats where injustice, poverty, the whole system is corrupt and must be fixed with radical public investment similar to Sanders.

Johnson and Trump very similar in style lots of bluster but no details around policy. The media all think The countries will reject socialism but in 2015 the UK saw huge surges in urban areas reinforcing socialism in urban areas but a hard rejection in rural small towns.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2019, 07:12:37 pm »

No, if only for the fact that Sanders is ten times more appealing than Corbyn.
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Torrain
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« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2019, 07:17:50 pm »

Donít think so. One of those leaders will almost certainly be out of a job within a week, and their replacement will lead to a shift in the tenor of uk politics, and the Overton window moves.

By the time the DNC and RNC are held, the UK opposition will likely be led by an entirely different team, and the political environment will be in a different phase. Probably still arguing over Scotland and Brexit though.

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MissScarlett
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« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2019, 07:22:24 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2019, 07:28:29 pm by MissScarlett »

Donít think so. One of those leaders will almost certainly be out of a job within a week, and their replacement will lead to a shift in the tenor of uk politics, and the Overton window moves.

By the time the DNC and RNC are held, the UK opposition will likely be led by an entirely different team, and the political environment will be in a different phase. Probably still arguing over Scotland and Brexit though.



The online progressive shows like Michael Brooks, Kyle Kulinaki David pakman are big supporters of Corbyn and say heís similar to sanders.

Corbyn voted against the Iraq war, always spoken out on issues of poverty, union rights, Palestine rights, rebels against the party etc.

I canít imagine anybody further to the left than Bernie Sanders.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2019, 07:33:49 pm »

It's not anywhere nearly as equivalent as it may seem on the surface.
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Fremont Speaker Roblox
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« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2019, 07:49:42 pm »

No, for countless reasons. The political situations in the UK and the US are dramatically different, with UK politics and coalitions being far more fluid. Additionally, you don't have a parliamentary system and major third parties that make things far more variable.

Then there is the simple factor of Trump being infinitely dumber than Boris Johnson. Trump is a lucky dummy who got into office after a perfect storm of events. Boris Johnson is an intelligent political operator who intentionally presents a shaggy persona to manipulate voters and the media, and evidently, he's very good at it.

Also Bernie comes off as much more "likable" and charismatic than Corbyn.
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Pericles
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2019, 07:53:05 pm »

Donít think so. One of those leaders will almost certainly be out of a job within a week, and their replacement will lead to a shift in the tenor of uk politics, and the Overton window moves.

By the time the DNC and RNC are held, the UK opposition will likely be led by an entirely different team, and the political environment will be in a different phase. Probably still arguing over Scotland and Brexit though.



If the Tories don't form a government, I could see Boris staying on as Leader of the Opposition, especially in an unstable hung parliament. He clearly boosted their support a lot and pretty much all the conceivable alternatives would have done worse. Then again, this is suspiciously similar to the logic for keeping Corbyn on as leader after the 2017 election.
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redjohn
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« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2019, 08:18:11 pm »

Corbyn's approval ratings haven't gone over 30% this entire year. His favorability hovers in the 20s. Bernie's is easily twice that and then some. Corbyn's policies are actually (democratic?) socialist for the most part; Bernie's policies are much closer to those of a social democrat.

Even if you didn't look at this; the political situations are entirely different. I don't think Corbyn winning means Sanders would have a better shot at winning or vice versa with Johnson.
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W
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« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2019, 08:18:49 pm »

the political situations in the us and uk are not directly comparable, but they aren't useless. brexit was in some ways a bellwether for 2016. that being said the political situation in britain rn is nothing like it is here, and the us-uk situation was far more similar 3 years ago.
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« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2019, 08:20:44 pm »

The UK media is much friendlier to Johnson than the US media is to Trump. Also, Brexit is a huge issue in this UK election.
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« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2019, 08:27:12 pm »

Yes, obviously. Trumpís emphasis on Amexit, along with the troubling anti-Semitic history of Bernard Sanders of Brooklyn, means we will see the exact same outcome.
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2019, 10:43:34 pm »

I think people are underestimating their similarity. Insofar as there is a question of whether or not a hard left winger a la Sanders or Corbyn can both hold suburban/wealthy voters (the type who voted Dem in the 2018 midterns/against Brexit) or possess some sort of special strength with working class voters (Rust Belt WWC/Northern Red wall), it does seem likely to be a pretty good test, and I'm interested to see how it goes. Certainly, I think it's looking a lot thus far like they underperform with both your NJ-07/City-of-London-Westminister voter and with your average Monroe/Wrexham voter, which isn't a good omen for their chances.
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Pericles
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« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2019, 01:44:16 am »

I think people are underestimating their similarity. Insofar as there is a question of whether or not a hard left winger a la Sanders or Corbyn can both hold suburban/wealthy voters (the type who voted Dem in the 2018 midterns/against Brexit) or possess some sort of special strength with working class voters (Rust Belt WWC/Northern Red wall), it does seem likely to be a pretty good test, and I'm interested to see how it goes. Certainly, I think it's looking a lot thus far like they underperform with both your NJ-07/City-of-London-Westminister voter and with your average Monroe/Wrexham voter, which isn't a good omen for their chances.

In 2017, there were huge swings to the left in many of those suburban seats. Maybe not due to Corbyn, but he wasn't a big liability there. And I bet in most of these types of constituencies, the 2019 result will be better for Labour than the 2015 result before Corbyn was leader (even if there is a swing away from Labour compared to 2017, when Corbyn was also leader). So by this logic, Bernie will do better than Hillary Clinton in the suburbs, and it's just a question of the degree of the overperformance.
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Sen. Dean Heller
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« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2019, 01:46:31 am »

I think people are underestimating their similarity. Insofar as there is a question of whether or not a hard left winger a la Sanders or Corbyn can both hold suburban/wealthy voters (the type who voted Dem in the 2018 midterns/against Brexit) or possess some sort of special strength with working class voters (Rust Belt WWC/Northern Red wall), it does seem likely to be a pretty good test, and I'm interested to see how it goes. Certainly, I think it's looking a lot thus far like they underperform with both your NJ-07/City-of-London-Westminister voter and with your average Monroe/Wrexham voter, which isn't a good omen for their chances.

In 2017, there were huge swings to the left in many of those suburban seats. Maybe not due to Corbyn, but he wasn't a big liability there. And I bet in most of these types of constituencies, the 2019 result will be better for Labour than the 2015 result before Corbyn was leader (even if there is a swing away from Labour compared to 2017, when Corbyn was also leader). So by this logic, Bernie will do better than Hillary Clinton in the suburbs, and it's just a question of the degree of the overperformance.

Comparing 2015 Britain is like 2012 Mitt Romney. The better analogy is Brexit - Trump, 2017 - 2018, and 2019 - 2020. I'm interested to see how it'll go.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2019, 02:15:56 am »

I canít imagine anybody further to the left than Bernie Sanders.

Then you don't have much imagination.
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National Progressive
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« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2019, 04:17:05 am »

No, Sanders and Corbyn *do* both espouses left-wing populism on socioeconomic issues and polling suggests that many of their signature issues such as reversing austerity, nationalization and/or single-payer are popular. However, Corbyn and Sanders diverge on their foreign policy stances and (hence) their public perceptions. Sanders is fundamentally a social liberal and progressive on Foreign Policy issues but not outside the Democratic Party mainstream-he voted to send US troops to Afghanistan after 9/11 even as he opposed the subsequent adventure in Iraq and remains a critical left-Zionist with regards to Israel. Republicans and even some centrist Democrats will rail against his foreign policy views as too dovish or isolationist but fundamentally they are not that far from the party mainstream and he would largely maintain American interests and alliances albeit reoriented in a more humanitarian direction. Here, Corbyn is clearly distinct given his history of far more radical opposition to the State of Israel itself and his willingness to meet with members of such groups as the IRA and Hezbollah. Not only are these stances radical in and of themselves, but it builds the image that Corbyn is not merely a left-winger but some sort of a fanatic fundamentally opposed to the British state and values. In this, Corbyn is more comparable to (say) how McGovern was perceived in 1972. It is this perception of cultural and anti-national radicalism that is the Achilles Heel of left-wing candidates, be it McGovern, Foot, or Corbyn.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2019, 07:17:27 am »

No, May was the Trump of Britain's political climate, her party was in for a landslide defeat; consequently,  that's why she resigned. Trump would save his party from a landslide if he resigned and put Pence in
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2019, 08:26:46 am »

It's not anywhere nearly as equivalent as it may seem on the surface.
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Ishan
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« Reply #18 on: December 09, 2019, 10:23:06 am »

Donít think so. One of those leaders will almost certainly be out of a job within a week, and their replacement will lead to a shift in the tenor of uk politics, and the Overton window moves.

By the time the DNC and RNC are held, the UK opposition will likely be led by an entirely different team, and the political environment will be in a different phase. Probably still arguing over Scotland and Brexit though.



The online progressive shows like Michael Brooks, Kyle Kulinaki David pakman are big supporters of Corbyn and say heís similar to sanders.

Corbyn voted against the Iraq war, always spoken out on issues of poverty, union rights, Palestine rights, rebels against the party etc.

I canít imagine anybody further to the left than Bernie Sanders.
The main reason why Labour will lose seats is because of Labour LibDem Voters and LabourBrexit voters.
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Stuck with Sanders
Kalwejt
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« Reply #19 on: December 09, 2019, 10:54:42 am »

When compared to Corbyn Sanders is your generic Europen social democrat.
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McGarnagle and the Power of the Word "Might"
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« Reply #20 on: December 10, 2019, 01:45:09 am »

No. Corbyn is even more firmly to the left than Sanders, and not as charismatic. Brexit is a bigger puzzle than Trump - trickier ground which Corbyn has not navigated as skillfully as he might have been able to. Sanders doesn't have that to contend directly with and would be in a stronger position against Trump than Corbyn is against Johnson.

I'd still like to see Labour win - but I feel like the best that can be realistically hoped for is another hung parliament with the Conservatives denied a majority. It may take another few years before Britain is so sick of the tories and Brexit that they vote in Labour. It will happen one day - I just don't know if Corbyn will still be Labour leader when it does.

The only thing that might spell permanent disaster for Labour is if a no-deal Brexit happens, and it precipitates Scottish independence.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2019, 06:23:55 pm »

I'm sure Dem donors are nervously lining up for Biden now, or will be soon.
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BP1202🌹
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« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2019, 06:52:14 pm »

Yes, and it's why this country (most countries, actually) need an ACTUAL revolution, not a metaphorical one.
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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2019, 07:01:21 pm »

Looks like the days of Tony Blair and big Labour majorities are gone for a long time to come, if ever. 
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CEO of Bernie Sanders
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« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2019, 07:15:27 pm »

Nah. Sanders and Warren aren't radioactively unpopular.
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