Why Right Leaning Posters on this forum should not support Trump in 2020
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« Reply #25 on: December 09, 2019, 04:31:24 AM »

Largely agree. Barring a Bloomberg nomination and Presidency, I do think a Biden win in 2020 followed by a DeSantis win in 2024 is the best win for Conservatism overall. The risks of Trump 2020 into AOC 2024 are near-apocalyptic.

And this is why I will refuse to vote for Biden if he is the nominee.

Biden doesnt need Texas to win the General anyway. Just taking MI, PA , WI or AZ will do the job

That is not anywhere close to the point I was making. A Biden victory would be a Pyrrhic victory at best for Democrats and would almost definitely result in Republican blowouts in 2022 and 2024 with nothing to show for it other than getting Trump out of office.

A re-elected Trump is preferable to a useless one-term Biden presidency. The Supreme Court is already f—ked anyway, so there’s not much risk there

Dude, winning the presidency is basically always a kind of pyrrhic victory, look at 2016 ; it was a big win for republicans on the short term but look at what was the cost of this win, we got trounced in 2018 when we lost 41 seats in the House and our dream of a 60 seats Senate majority never happened   

If Kasich or even Marco were President, the Republicans would still have control of the House today.
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« Reply #26 on: December 09, 2019, 08:14:29 AM »

Have you ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?
Someday an actual socialist will run for president and no one will believe you all after years of fake-scares.

Literally Bernie.
Does he support worker control of the means of production?
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #27 on: December 09, 2019, 09:23:31 AM »

Largely agree. Barring a Bloomberg nomination and Presidency, I do think a Biden win in 2020 followed by a DeSantis win in 2024 is the best win for Conservatism overall. The risks of Trump 2020 into AOC 2024 are near-apocalyptic.

And this is why I will refuse to vote for Biden if he is the nominee.

Biden doesnt need Texas to win the General anyway. Just taking MI, PA , WI or AZ will do the job

That is not anywhere close to the point I was making. A Biden victory would be a Pyrrhic victory at best for Democrats and would almost definitely result in Republican blowouts in 2022 and 2024 with nothing to show for it other than getting Trump out of office.

A re-elected Trump is preferable to a useless one-term Biden presidency. The Supreme Court is already f—ked anyway, so there’s not much risk there

Dude, winning the presidency is basically always a kind of pyrrhic victory, look at 2016 ; it was a big win for republicans on the short term but look at what was the cost of this win, we got trounced in 2018 when we lost 41 seats in the House and our dream of a 60 seats Senate majority never happened   

If Kasich or even Marco were President, the Republicans would still have control of the House today.

Yeah, but Kasich would have been a horrible president, over the last 5 years he has gone from a center right republican to a total RINO (vetoed the Heartbeat bill, endorsed gun control measures, backed tax increases on fracking, became a pro-immigration hack, wants the USA to move back inside the Paris agreement)
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #28 on: December 09, 2019, 09:25:06 AM »

If I knew for certain that DeSantis or Haley would get the nomination in 2024, it wouldn't bother me if Trump lost, particularly to a far leftist who'll have trouble with moderate voters and getting their agenda through.  A hawkish, soft on China neoliberal like Biden scares me much more.

I was a libertarian from 2012-2016, I voted for Johnson twice and supported Rand in the primaries (in hindsight, Rand was a weaker GE candidate than I thought, and GJ is a loser).  

My political views have evolved since then. I support Trump's policy agenda (to an extent one exists) by and large because it addresses most of the weaknesses of the GOP establishment agenda from 2000-2015:

-Anti interventionist, a direct rebuke to the neocons that infests both parties.
-Tough on China.  To assume that China isn't our greatest geopolitical adversary is to be childishly naive.
-Secure the border.  The dreamers (who haven't committed a crime) should be allowed to stay.


Obviously, he hasn't been 100% successful, and perhaps not even 50% successful.  Some of this is on him, either shooting himself in his foot, bad political instincts or not expanding his coalition.  But his administration was kneecapped before it even began (discredited Steele dossier) and by saboteurs within his own party who would rather screw their own constituents if it meant "owning Trump" *Cough McCain*.

The GOP needs to go in a different direction than it was pre-2016 to remain a viable national party, one of economic populism and non-interventionalism (and I would prefer social moderation).  I can't count how many times the GOP clutched defeat from the jaws of victory during the Obama admin, and the GOP's failures (among smaller factors) are what allowed Trump's insurgent campaign to succeed in the first place.  

Thus, I fear Trump losing means the party going into the hands of people like Bill Kristol and George Conway.  The free market absolutists, neocon, bible thumpers have driven the party into the ground, and the last thing they need is to get back into power.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #29 on: December 09, 2019, 09:25:51 AM »

Have you ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?
Someday an actual socialist will run for president and no one will believe you all after years of fake-scares.

Literally Bernie.
Does he support worker control of the means of production?

More or less, yeah
https://www.baldwin.senate.gov/press-releases/reward-work-act-2019
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« Reply #30 on: December 09, 2019, 09:32:55 AM »

I would make 2 points.

1. Politics and winning elections is the one area in which thinking long term never makes sense, party bases and voting behaviours by group change and realign so rapidly that absorbing a loss today for a potential gain tomorrow is never a good idea, in politics short termism makes sense, you try and win every election you can and don't worry about the negative consequences of victory. What's important is winning the next election, any kind of strategy based off losing today to win tomorrow is bound to fail owing again to the unpredictability of politics, the only safe and rational course of action is to try and win every election.

2. The party that controls the WH always loses races down-ballot, that's just a feature of politics, nobody has figured out a way around that, when a party takes the WH one trade-off it accepts is that it will lose races at the federal and state level. Independents always vote against the incumbent party excepting extraordinary circumstances such as those that occurred in 2002, having the presidency and losing seats is a the trade-off both parties accept and the potential gains from a presidency outweigh losses in seats owing to what a president can do, not least confirm judges with the Senate. 
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #31 on: December 09, 2019, 10:32:33 AM »

Largely agree. Barring a Bloomberg nomination and Presidency, I do think a Biden win in 2020 followed by a DeSantis win in 2024 is the best win for Conservatism overall. The risks of Trump 2020 into AOC 2024 are near-apocalyptic.

And this is why I will refuse to vote for Biden if he is the nominee.

Biden doesnt need Texas to win the General anyway. Just taking MI, PA , WI or AZ will do the job

That is not anywhere close to the point I was making. A Biden victory would be a Pyrrhic victory at best for Democrats and would almost definitely result in Republican blowouts in 2022 and 2024 with nothing to show for it other than getting Trump out of office.

A re-elected Trump is preferable to a useless one-term Biden presidency. The Supreme Court is already f—ked anyway, so there’s not much risk there

Dude, winning the presidency is basically always a kind of pyrrhic victory, look at 2016 ; it was a big win for republicans on the short term but look at what was the cost of this win, we got trounced in 2018 when we lost 41 seats in the House and our dream of a 60 seats Senate majority never happened   

If Kasich or even Marco were President, the Republicans would still have control of the House today.

This is pure speculation and you have no proof to back that up
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #32 on: December 09, 2019, 12:38:54 PM »

Largely agree. Barring a Bloomberg nomination and Presidency, I do think a Biden win in 2020 followed by a DeSantis win in 2024 is the best win for Conservatism overall. The risks of Trump 2020 into AOC 2024 are near-apocalyptic.

And this is why I will refuse to vote for Biden if he is the nominee.

Biden doesnt need Texas to win the General anyway. Just taking MI, PA , WI or AZ will do the job

That is not anywhere close to the point I was making. A Biden victory would be a Pyrrhic victory at best for Democrats and would almost definitely result in Republican blowouts in 2022 and 2024 with nothing to show for it other than getting Trump out of office.

A re-elected Trump is preferable to a useless one-term Biden presidency. The Supreme Court is already f—ked anyway, so there’s not much risk there

Dude, winning the presidency is basically always a kind of pyrrhic victory, look at 2016 ; it was a big win for republicans on the short term but look at what was the cost of this win, we got trounced in 2018 when we lost 41 seats in the House and our dream of a 60 seats Senate majority never happened   

If Kasich or even Marco were President, the Republicans would still have control of the House today.

This is pure speculation and you have no proof to back that up


Obviously no proof by that would be most likely outcome , Democrats make gains but not enough to take the house as suburbs such as Orange County would still be Republican today .


Trump is the reason that hard left trend happened
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« Reply #33 on: December 09, 2019, 12:41:11 PM »

Largely agree. Barring a Bloomberg nomination and Presidency, I do think a Biden win in 2020 followed by a DeSantis win in 2024 is the best win for Conservatism overall. The risks of Trump 2020 into AOC 2024 are near-apocalyptic.

And this is why I will refuse to vote for Biden if he is the nominee.

Biden doesnt need Texas to win the General anyway. Just taking MI, PA , WI or AZ will do the job

That is not anywhere close to the point I was making. A Biden victory would be a Pyrrhic victory at best for Democrats and would almost definitely result in Republican blowouts in 2022 and 2024 with nothing to show for it other than getting Trump out of office.

A re-elected Trump is preferable to a useless one-term Biden presidency. The Supreme Court is already f—ked anyway, so there’s not much risk there

Dude, winning the presidency is basically always a kind of pyrrhic victory, look at 2016 ; it was a big win for republicans on the short term but look at what was the cost of this win, we got trounced in 2018 when we lost 41 seats in the House and our dream of a 60 seats Senate majority never happened   

If Kasich or even Marco were President, the Republicans would still have control of the House today.

Yeah, but Kasich would have been a horrible president, over the last 5 years he has gone from a center right republican to a total RINO (vetoed the Heartbeat bill, endorsed gun control measures, backed tax increases on fracking, became a pro-immigration hack, wants the USA to move back inside the Paris agreement)



Kasich also signed a 20 week ban , supporting defunding PP etc. the gun control measures he supports or still less pro gun control than the measures Reagan supported.


Kasich on other hand would have gotten a good healthcare bill passed , an even better tax bill , actual immigration reform and the nation would be in much much better shape today
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lfromnj
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« Reply #34 on: December 09, 2019, 01:19:03 PM »

The political reason is absurd. It can make sense from a moral and personal reason but Ginsburg leaving her seat is just as likely. Getting 2/3 of the court and even possibly replacing Thomas by 2022 would mean a secure SCOTUS for a generation. That combined with general control of the senate for the next few decades means Trump is probably worth it from a GOP perspective.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #35 on: December 09, 2019, 02:05:36 PM »

It's a much bigger one, and yes. As Alex Tocqueville once said, America will endure until the day Congress discovers it can bribe us with our own money. And besides, the fact that I wouldn't want Trump to babysit my family won't ever justify robbing those who work hard to pay for the takers and gimmes of this world.

Tocqueville didn't actually say this. It's not really something that could have even come up in 1835: the US didn't even have an income tax at the time and primarily relied on tariffs for revenue. Federal government programs aimed at popular needs weren't even really an idea that existed in the 1830s outside of the Whig push for building roads and bridges and ports and lighthouses and such, which are far from anything we'd think of as welfare today.
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« Reply #36 on: December 09, 2019, 02:55:18 PM »

This is basically a parody. A 80/20 Left/Right forum where the 20% right-wingers are already 15% NeverTrump and Kasich-type Republicans and 5% Trump-supporting. There is no need for this thread, you can already count genuine Trump-supporting Republicans on this forum on a hand.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #37 on: December 09, 2019, 03:39:14 PM »

This is basically a parody. A 80/20 Left/Right forum where the 20% right-wingers are already 15% NeverTrump and Kasich-type Republicans and 5% Trump-supporting. There is no need for this thread, you can already count genuine Trump-supporting Republicans on this forum on a hand.

Amen
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #38 on: December 09, 2019, 03:40:05 PM »

Largely agree. Barring a Bloomberg nomination and Presidency, I do think a Biden win in 2020 followed by a DeSantis win in 2024 is the best win for Conservatism overall. The risks of Trump 2020 into AOC 2024 are near-apocalyptic.

And this is why I will refuse to vote for Biden if he is the nominee.

Biden doesnt need Texas to win the General anyway. Just taking MI, PA , WI or AZ will do the job

That is not anywhere close to the point I was making. A Biden victory would be a Pyrrhic victory at best for Democrats and would almost definitely result in Republican blowouts in 2022 and 2024 with nothing to show for it other than getting Trump out of office.

A re-elected Trump is preferable to a useless one-term Biden presidency. The Supreme Court is already f—ked anyway, so there’s not much risk there

Dude, winning the presidency is basically always a kind of pyrrhic victory, look at 2016 ; it was a big win for republicans on the short term but look at what was the cost of this win, we got trounced in 2018 when we lost 41 seats in the House and our dream of a 60 seats Senate majority never happened  

If Kasich or even Marco were President, the Republicans would still have control of the House today.

Yeah, but Kasich would have been a horrible president, over the last 5 years he has gone from a center right republican to a total RINO (vetoed the Heartbeat bill, endorsed gun control measures, backed tax increases on fracking, became a pro-immigration hack, wants the USA to move back inside the Paris agreement)



Kasich also signed a 20 week ban , supporting defunding PP etc. the gun control measures he supports or still less pro gun control than the measures Reagan supported.


Kasich on other hand would have gotten a good healthcare bill passed , an even better tax bill , actual immigration reform and the nation would be in much much better shape today

The ''ante-2015'' Kasich was great, but after 2015 Kasich became a RINO and no, you're delusionnal if you think that he would have passed any good reform. On healthcare Kasich would have left the ACA mostly intact as he would have tried to play cozy with Pelosi and Schumer, on the immigration issue, he would have signed a amnesty bill (with the blessing of Koch Brothers) passed with the votes of democrats. As for the Tax bill we would have ended up with a 2001 kind of tax cut, the marginal income tax rate would have been lowered a bit, but under the pressure of democrats/medias Kasich would have not lowered the corporate tax rate because it would have been seen as a ''gift to the richs and wealthy''. Nah, Kasich would have been a waste of political capital
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« Reply #39 on: December 09, 2019, 03:40:49 PM »

No longer right leaning but still considering to vote Trump again.
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Continential
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« Reply #40 on: December 09, 2019, 04:00:09 PM »

1. Socialism is worse. Even Biden supports a public option, which would be another disastrous entitlement program, bankrupt many insurers and hospitals, and throw tons of people off their healthcare plans (healthcare becomes less of a perk when it can also be gotten free, so businesses would stop offering it). Plus, it'd put too many lives into the hands of government and expand the role of government too much. People fail to talk about this, but even Biden would raise taxes by a trillion + more than Clinton would have, and I didn't vote for her either.


You're just making stuff up about Biden here.  Biden is not proposing to raise taxes by even as much as Clinton was, much less 1 trillion more than Clinton.  Meanwhile, a public option is not an entitlement, you are confusing it with single payer when they are two extremely different things.  People have to pay for the public option.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-tax-plan-would-raise-3-2-trillion-by-targeting-the-rich-amazon-and-netflix

Versus

https://www.atr.org/full-list-hillary-s-planned-tax-hikes

$2.2 trillion more.

It's time to reduce the size of government, not expand by trillions of dollars. Even the Democratic "moderates" are no moderates at all.

Yea, it's really ridiculous to see some journalists calling people like Conor Lamb or Elissa Slotkin ''moderate'', these people are to the left of Obama and should be called social-democrat, not ''moderate''
Yes, Emmanuel Macron is a Social Democrat. /s
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #41 on: December 09, 2019, 04:06:14 PM »

1. Socialism is worse. Even Biden supports a public option, which would be another disastrous entitlement program, bankrupt many insurers and hospitals, and throw tons of people off their healthcare plans (healthcare becomes less of a perk when it can also be gotten free, so businesses would stop offering it). Plus, it'd put too many lives into the hands of government and expand the role of government too much. People fail to talk about this, but even Biden would raise taxes by a trillion + more than Clinton would have, and I didn't vote for her either.


You're just making stuff up about Biden here.  Biden is not proposing to raise taxes by even as much as Clinton was, much less 1 trillion more than Clinton.  Meanwhile, a public option is not an entitlement, you are confusing it with single payer when they are two extremely different things.  People have to pay for the public option.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-tax-plan-would-raise-3-2-trillion-by-targeting-the-rich-amazon-and-netflix

Versus

https://www.atr.org/full-list-hillary-s-planned-tax-hikes

$2.2 trillion more.

It's time to reduce the size of government, not expand by trillions of dollars. Even the Democratic "moderates" are no moderates at all.

Yea, it's really ridiculous to see some journalists calling people like Conor Lamb or Elissa Slotkin ''moderate'', these people are to the left of Obama and should be called social-democrat, not ''moderate''
Yes, Emmanuel Macron is a Social Democrat. /s

HuhHuh

Where did I said that Macron is a social democrat ? Macron is a centrist-neoliberal like Bloomberg, not a social democrat.
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Continential
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« Reply #42 on: December 09, 2019, 04:09:34 PM »

1. Socialism is worse. Even Biden supports a public option, which would be another disastrous entitlement program, bankrupt many insurers and hospitals, and throw tons of people off their healthcare plans (healthcare becomes less of a perk when it can also be gotten free, so businesses would stop offering it). Plus, it'd put too many lives into the hands of government and expand the role of government too much. People fail to talk about this, but even Biden would raise taxes by a trillion + more than Clinton would have, and I didn't vote for her either.


You're just making stuff up about Biden here.  Biden is not proposing to raise taxes by even as much as Clinton was, much less 1 trillion more than Clinton.  Meanwhile, a public option is not an entitlement, you are confusing it with single payer when they are two extremely different things.  People have to pay for the public option.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-tax-plan-would-raise-3-2-trillion-by-targeting-the-rich-amazon-and-netflix

Versus

https://www.atr.org/full-list-hillary-s-planned-tax-hikes

$2.2 trillion more.

It's time to reduce the size of government, not expand by trillions of dollars. Even the Democratic "moderates" are no moderates at all.

Yea, it's really ridiculous to see some journalists calling people like Conor Lamb or Elissa Slotkin ''moderate'', these people are to the left of Obama and should be called social-democrat, not ''moderate''
Yes, Emmanuel Macron is a Social Democrat. /s

HuhHuh

Where did I said that Macron is a social democrat ? Macron is a centrist-neoliberal like Bloomberg, not a social democrat.
You said left of Obama and Obama is a Neo-Liberal and Macron is a Social Liberal, and he was part of the Socialist Party of France.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #43 on: December 09, 2019, 05:54:41 PM »

1. Socialism is worse. Even Biden supports a public option, which would be another disastrous entitlement program, bankrupt many insurers and hospitals, and throw tons of people off their healthcare plans (healthcare becomes less of a perk when it can also be gotten free, so businesses would stop offering it). Plus, it'd put too many lives into the hands of government and expand the role of government too much. People fail to talk about this, but even Biden would raise taxes by a trillion + more than Clinton would have, and I didn't vote for her either.


You're just making stuff up about Biden here.  Biden is not proposing to raise taxes by even as much as Clinton was, much less 1 trillion more than Clinton.  Meanwhile, a public option is not an entitlement, you are confusing it with single payer when they are two extremely different things.  People have to pay for the public option.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-tax-plan-would-raise-3-2-trillion-by-targeting-the-rich-amazon-and-netflix

Versus

https://www.atr.org/full-list-hillary-s-planned-tax-hikes

$2.2 trillion more.

It's time to reduce the size of government, not expand by trillions of dollars. Even the Democratic "moderates" are no moderates at all.

Yea, it's really ridiculous to see some journalists calling people like Conor Lamb or Elissa Slotkin ''moderate'', these people are to the left of Obama and should be called social-democrat, not ''moderate''
Yes, Emmanuel Macron is a Social Democrat. /s

HuhHuh

Where did I said that Macron is a social democrat ? Macron is a centrist-neoliberal like Bloomberg, not a social democrat.
You said left of Obama and Obama is a Neo-Liberal and Macron is a Social Liberal, and he was part of the Socialist Party of France.

Yeah, Lamb/Slotkin are to the left of Obama, just look at the minimum wage issue, Obama never supported a 100% increase while both of them are backing a such increase. As for Macron, no you're wrong ; he is clearly to the right of Obama on most issues, look at some of the reforms he did :
-slashing the wealth tax by half
-lowering the corporate tax from 31% to 25%
-easing working laws
-the pension reform he is trying to do as of now is clearly not social by any standard
-lowering taxes on capital gains
Macron in the US would be close to Bloomberg from an ideological perspective
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« Reply #44 on: December 09, 2019, 06:02:05 PM »

This is basically a parody. A 80/20 Left/Right forum where the 20% right-wingers are already 15% NeverTrump and Kasich-type Republicans and 5% Trump-supporting. There is no need for this thread, you can already count genuine Trump-supporting Republicans on this forum on a hand.
We get it because you complain about it a lot. This forum is left-leaning, and you don't like that. If it bothers you so much, then leave.

I'm no fan of the OP, by the way.
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« Reply #45 on: December 09, 2019, 07:11:40 PM »

You're yelling into a void, Old School Republican. That ship sailed even before he won the 2016 primary. And clearly you learned very little from that time if you think the party is going to redeem itself with a more mainstream candidate in 2024. I don't know what a post-Trump GOP is going to look like, but I imagine that it will take longer than four years to truly outgrow Trumpism.
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« Reply #46 on: December 09, 2019, 07:16:42 PM »

The fact that Bush 43 turned a generation against the GOP supports OSR’s argument.
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« Reply #47 on: December 09, 2019, 07:27:10 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2019, 07:37:28 PM by omelott »

Thank you, OSR, for making this post. It's hard to resist the temptation to join the Trump train, as so many of your fellow Republican posters have done. The fact that you haven't already joined them really shows your commitment to actual conservative ideals and decency. I wish more Americans (both Republicans and Democrats) were like that in their commitments.
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« Reply #48 on: December 09, 2019, 08:01:21 PM »

The fact that Bush 43 turned a generation against the GOP supports OSR’s argument.

Bush 43 turned Republicans and conservative independents agains the GOP by totally abandoning the agenda he promised us in the 2004 primary convention, following it up by bungling Iraq, losing the messaging war on Katrina, and violated conservative principles in 2008. No GOP could have won after that.

The long-term argument is BS. I believed that crap in 2008 and didn’t care about McCain’s loss. (I wasn’t eligible to vote back then yet anyway.) Then Romney campaigned like a wimp and we got the worst 8 years since I moved to this country. Trump won because we were tired of Obama, and we were tired of conservatives always giving in to the Democrats, and we were tired of people thinking that Bush, McCain, Romney and Kasich are conservative. We wanted someone who would make everyone mad and fight for what they believed in, regardless of his total lack of political niceties.

He will win again because he hasn’t stopped fighting, and the best he can do is keep fighting for four more years, and the next GOP has a better chance in this scenario, because people will be ready for someone who is more politically sensitive, but won’t feel like they have to give up their principles to win.

Trump needs to win for these reasons:

He needs to outlast Ginsburg and flip more circuit courts.
We can’t let the Dems dictate immigration policy, until the problem is fixed.
If we do have a recession, we don’t want a president thinking he can spend his way out of it. Even if it happened after Trump left office, he would still get blamed for it in the media, so that argument is DOA.
We can’t let the Dems dictate military policy, since every one who’s been president since FDR has been incompetent at it.

I wish someone would cut spending, but since everyone goes ape-@#$% whenever someone tries, it has become a non-issue to me, because they always give up.
I was hesitant on his trade policies, but they seem to be close to success, and it is another example of him not giving up due to backlash.
I’d hate to see corporate taxes go up again, even after it’s the main reason the economy hasn’t failed.




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Libertas Vel Mors
Haley/Ryan
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« Reply #49 on: December 09, 2019, 11:22:53 PM »

The fact that Bush 43 turned a generation against the GOP supports OSR’s argument.

I was born during his Presidency, only thing he did wrong was TARP/not taking Iran for a ride
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