Rasmussen: Lynn Swann leads Rendell by 2%

[TheresNoMoney]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Pennsylvania%20Governor%20January%2015.htm

Swann     45%
Rendell    43%

Rendell    46%
Scranton  36%

[Adlai Stevenson]

I cannot believe this poll at all.  Is Rasmussen slightly off-kilter at the moment, ala Maryland?  Or is this correct.  I thought Rendell would end up winning about 56%-42%.

[Flying Dog]

This must be an outlier.

[12th Doctor]

This is the first poll taken since Swann has been on the trail.  I find it quite believable.

Of course, if the poll showed Rendell up by 101% it would be totally believable to you guys.

[12th Doctor]

Also, this poll shows Bill Scranton trailing Rendell significantly, so you know they didn't over sample.

[Flying Dog]

Let's wait and see a few more polls come out on Rendell vs Swann and then I will make up my mind on if Swann has the edge.

[nini2287]

Let's wait and see a few more polls come out on Rendell vs Swann and then I will make up my mind on if Swann has the edge.

I agree.  I'm still undecided on the race, but probably leaning towards Swannie.

[TeePee4Prez]

I did not see the West vs. "T" vs. East crosssamples, but I find it a bit odd Swann is doing that well over Scranton plus the fact that more Democrats are going for Swann than Republicans for Rendell.  That tells me it's highly likely there may have been an oversampling of Western Pennsylvania, maybe not as much Democrat vs. Independent vs. Republican.

[WalterMitty]

i guess rendell is still a 'lock'

[Adlai Stevenson]

No Rendell is not a lock but he still remains a favourite.  Nor would we expect him to win by 101% either.  Two can play at partisanship, two parties that is: I notice that turnout in Wyoming amongst registered voters was 105%!  So the Republicans know how to win amongst graveyards at least.

Anyway, more importantly has Rendell started running ads yet?  If he hasn't then I'm not surprised by the results of the poll and we could rationalise that Swann's political exposure and media coverage have generated favourable voter reaction.  If Rendell is running ads I am more worried.  But his approval is is only 46% compared to 44% who disapprove of him in the Keystone state.   

I think what might have happened is that Swann ala Steele in Maryland has drawn some black voters towards the GOP.  If Kerry won 50%-48% in PA in 2000, and carried Blacks by (I'm guessing) 85%-14%?  Then it wouldn't be difficult for Swann to overtake Rendell if he won only 30%-35% of African American voters and held on to Bush's margin amongst Whites.  I am only speculating for the basis of the poll.  This is why I think Rasmussen has shown to leads in unlikely scenarios, with Steele's 45%-40% lead in MD and Swann's 45%-43% in PA.  If my theory is correct, then the GOP strategy of running black candidates in North-Eastern urban states could pay off in a more favourable climate. 

[Keystone Phil]

If Rendell is running ads I am more worried.  But his approval is is only 46% compared to 44% who disapprove of him in the Keystone state.

Just because his approval rating is better than his disapproval doesn't mean everything is ok. That's a high disapproval and it's close to his approval.   

[Adlai Stevenson]

If Rendell is running ads I am more worried.  But his approval is is only 46% compared to 44% who disapprove of him in the Keystone state.

Just because his approval rating is better than his disapproval doesn't mean everything is ok. That's a high disapproval and it's close to his approval.   

Actually I was making the point that if he was running ads and was in that state with only a net of +2% approval and losing to Swann by 2% he was in trouble.  However, if we are talking 'a high disapproval and it's close to his approval' situation what about your idol Rick Santorum?

[Flying Dog]

If Rendell is running ads I am more worried.  But his approval is is only 46% compared to 44% who disapprove of him in the Keystone state.

Just because his approval rating is better than his disapproval doesn't mean everything is ok. That's a high disapproval and it's close to his approval.   

Actually I was making the point that if he was running ads and was in that state with only a net of +2% approval and losing to Swann by 2% he was in trouble.  However, if we are talking 'a high disapproval and it's close to his approval' situation what about your idol Rick Santorum?

Oh Boy, Here we go again

[MarkWarner08]

Swann is a charismatic, eloquent speaker who can appeal to the Reagan Democrats and Soccer Moms without angering the GOP base.

My mom, a die-hard Democrat who lives in the Philly suburbs, will be voting for Swann this year because of Act 72. I bet she'll be the only woman with a Lois Murphy, Bob Casey and Lynn Swann sign on her lawn.

[Moooooo]

If I wasnt such a hack Id probably give Swann (and Ehrlich in MD) a look.  But Im more of a strategic voter.  Voting for Swann gives him a springboard to run for higher office sometime down the road.  It would also make it more difficult for the democratic nominee to carry PA in 2008.

[TheresNoMoney]

My mom, a die-hard Democrat who lives in the Philly suburbs, will be voting for Swann this year because of Act 72.

What is Act 72?

[Adlai Stevenson]

It's a property tax measure signed by Governor Rendell and being voted on this year.

[Keystone Phil]

However, if we are talking 'a high disapproval and it's close to his approval' situation what about your idol Rick Santorum?

1) What does that have to do with anything? When you lose you need to resort to this? Typical.

2) Up until the beginning of last year, Santorum had some of the best approval ratings and lowest disapprovals.

3) I've admitted that my political idol will have a very tough challenge and, at this point, is likely to lose. I fail to see your point here except maybe trying to distract attention when you get cranky and can't argue.

[nini2287]

Swann is a charismatic, eloquent speaker who can appeal to the Reagan Democrats and Soccer Moms without angering the GOP base.

My mom, a die-hard Democrat who lives in the Philly suburbs, will be voting for Swann this year because of Act 72. I bet she'll be the only woman with a Lois Murphy, Bob Casey and Lynn Swann sign on her lawn.

Where does she live in suburban Philly? (PA-6 I'm guessing )

[TheresNoMoney]

It's a property tax measure signed by Governor Rendell and being voted on this year.

What are the details?

[Jake]

It's a property tax measure signed by Governor Rendell and being voted on this year.

What are the details?

It uses gambling money in grants to school districts to lower property taxes. 4/5ths of school districts have rejected the plan for various reasons.

[TheresNoMoney]

It uses gambling money in grants to school districts to lower property taxes. 4/5ths of school districts have rejected the plan for various reasons.

Why? That sounds like a pretty good plan to me. Why would people not want their property taxes lowered?

[Jake]

It uses gambling money in grants to school districts to lower property taxes. 4/5ths of school districts have rejected the plan for various reasons.

Why? That sounds like a pretty good plan to me. Why would people not want their property taxes lowered?

There are more complicated issues, alot of the debate in my district involved real fears that the funds provided would be no where near what was expected. A few school boards were hijacked by anti-gambling groups, others by anti-Rendell groups, and some just didn't like the plan at all.

[MarkWarner08]

Swann is a charismatic, eloquent speaker who can appeal to the Reagan Democrats and Soccer Moms without angering the GOP base.

My mom, a die-hard Democrat who lives in the Philly suburbs, will be voting for Swann this year because of Act 72. I bet she'll be the only woman with a Lois Murphy, Bob Casey and Lynn Swann sign on her lawn.

Where does she live in suburban Philly? (PA-6 I'm guessing )

She lives in PA-6, the home of two consecutive 51%-49% House races. She's also worked with people with gambling addictions and understands the pernicious role it plays in our society.

[TeePee4Prez]

Swann is a charismatic, eloquent speaker who can appeal to the Reagan Democrats and Soccer Moms without angering the GOP base.

My mom, a die-hard Democrat who lives in the Philly suburbs, will be voting for Swann this year because of Act 72. I bet she'll be the only woman with a Lois Murphy, Bob Casey and Lynn Swann sign on her lawn.

Where does she live in suburban Philly? (PA-6 I'm guessing )

She lives in PA-6, the home of two consecutive 51%-49% House races.

Glad to see she's voting for Lois!  I met a few of her staffers, but not her yet.  Why would anyone vote for Lynn Swann?  He is a stupid sports commentator with no experience.  This looks like Arnold Part Deux.