IA - Emerson: Biden +1

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1204582834452750337

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's Emerson, of course, but the Biden camp has to be feeling really good with the poll results today.

[Cinemark]

Biden 23% (-)
Sanders 22% (+9)
Buttigieg 18% (+2)
Warren 12% (-11)
Klobuchar 10% (+9)
Booker 4% (+1)

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-warren-s-support-drops-while-sanders-rises

Edit: Sorry, beaten to it.

[Minnesota Mike]

It's Emerson so take with large amounts of salt but my gal Amy at 10%

[Cinemark]

Klobmentum?

Although I'd like to see this confirmed by other polls before getting excited.

[Tintrlvr]

It's Emerson, of course, but the Biden camp has to be feeling really good with the poll results today.

This is no change for Biden from Emerson's last poll, so it's not as meaningful as it might otherwise appear. The big change is Warren collapsing and Sanders surging, plus small gains for Buttigieg and a surge for Klobuchar from what was probably an unrealistically low standing.

Emerson has been far off from other pollsters thus far in polling Iowa (in Biden's favor), though of course it's impossible to say who is correct at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buttigieg sure dropped

[Cinemark]

Buttigieg sure dropped

He gained two points from Emerson's last Iowa poll.

[Lourdes]

Really bad poll for Warren.

[Mr. Morden]

I just tried downloading the full results, and my computer says the file is unreadable.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

so we are back to square one, a Biden vs Bernie race

[n1240]

The dearth of polling in Iowa is a bit ridiculous, about three weeks since the last Iowa poll. It may be Emerson, but at least it's something.

Glancing at 2nd choices it seems like Sanders is probably in a better position than Biden here, considering 51% of Warren supporters have Sanders as their 2nd choice and only 5% have Biden as their 2nd choice (should be cautious with these numbers since there is a large subsample MoE, but kinda expect more Warren supporters to prefer Sanders over Biden). If Warren continues to struggle while Sanders manages to comfortably exceed 15% it could help push him to a victory in Iowa, as he'd be likely to gain support in precincts where Warren ends up non-viable.

[Gone to Carolina]

Fwiw, if you distribute the candidate's who are below 15% support based on second-choices you get something like:

Sanders - 31
Buttigieg - 26
Biden - 26

[Pollster]

Klobuchar's uptick in the national polls definitely implied she was rising in Iowa, but this seems a bit extreme. She's probably at the lower end of the MOE here (which lands her around 6-8%).

[Vosem]

Will note that, although Buttigieg has dropped a lot, he is doing very well among minor candidate second-choices, and in fact wins when you apportion out second choice. (But this is mostly because it is just enough to push Warren above 15; if Klobuchar makes it above 15 or Warren fails to, then Sanders wins).

Will be interesting to see how the media reacts to different candidates coming in first in the first-preference and in the distributed result; the general precedent from Republican contests is to treat the first person as the winner, which would be an advantage to candidates with a high floor (Biden especially, who will struggle to win the delegate count, but also Sanders) and a disadvantage to candidates who are a common second choice (Buttigieg stands out here).

[cvparty]

uhh that moe lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, polls showing Biden in 4th place in Iowa and NH were wrong?😖😖😖

[redjohn]

Primary is clearly a two-person race between Biden and Sanders.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I found an alternate rendering of their website that offers a version of the crosstabs for download that doesn't break:

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/12/11/iowa-2020-warrens-support-drops-while-sanders-rises/

2016 Clinton caucus supporters:
Biden 37%
Buttigieg 21%
Warren 16%
Klobuchar 8%
Steyer 5%
Sanders 5%

2016 Sanders caucus supporters:
Sanders 41%
Buttigieg 15%
Warren 13%
Biden 12%
Klobuchar 12%

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If Bernie is back in contention in IA, he's back in serious contention for the nomination. IA/NH/NV/CA is a realistic path for him, but IA has been his sore spot for months now. 

[Skye]

So... anyone wanna bet on a late Klobuchar surge in IA?

[😥]

Go Amy, go!
Klobuchar 2020!

free photo hosting

[Hollywood]

If Bernie Sanders is truly carrying 54-58% of very liberal voters in Iowa, along with 30% of somewhat liberal voters, then I have very little doubt of him carrying the state with 30-32% of the vote.  His numbers are starting to reflect the support he received in the 2016 Iowa Caucus.  Although I don’t expect him to receive the same voter share of 46% he did back in 2016, I think he will receive at least half of those Iowans.  Maybe more.  People that invested their time to vote for you the first time are likely to support you again. 

Basically, this is a two-man race between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, and those people supporting Warren are making a huge mistake.  Back in June or July, I made a thread and multiple posts about the various personality flaws I saw within Warren, and concluded that she was not going to win the Presidency, because she lacked the confidence, fortitude, and conviction.  I’ll give two examples.

First, she really demonstrated her lack of confidence was when she failed to go on the offense against Pete Buttigieg, which I think has become her bully.  She let the attacks go on for weeks while Pete ate away at the moderate support that made her the top contender.  How do you not talking about the fact that Ghetto Pete fraudulently claimed to have black supporter, going so far as naming political figures.  How about mention the fact that the Buttigieg has no plans?  The guy has nothing, and yet people seem to think he has a plan.  Warren has no fight.  She’s an absolute disaster. You really want to put her up against Trump?

Second, her entire campaign talking point is about being the most capable leader with the most competent, detail-oriented plan to guide our country and the Democrat agenda has been obliterated on the healthcare issue.  She is trying to toe the line between plans that appeal to both the moderate and liberal Democrat supporters.  This wishy-washy demeanor has been disastrous for her. 

[Hollywood]

If Bernie is back in contention in IA, he's back in serious contention for the nomination. IA/NH/NV/CA is a realistic path for him, but IA has been his sore spot for months now. 

I think the constant attacks on Warren from the moderate establishment candidates and the counterstrikes from the left-wing have completely sunk her campaign to the benefit of Bernie Sanders, who has a shot at reaching 36 percent of the voter share in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Both Bernie and Warren need to go on the offensive against Buttigieg and Klobuchar if they plan to win, and treat Biden like he doesn't exist.  It's become fairly evident that Buttigieg and Klobuchar are merely providing cover for Biden, protecting him from a Warren campaign that unites both the moderates breaking away from Biden, and limiting the damage done to Biden by voters in Iowa and New Hampshire that pay attention to creepy joe challenging geriatrics to push-up contests.  Thus, Warren splits the liberal voter pool with Bernie, and all the moderate candidates being propped up one-by-one thanks to the corporate media can pick off moderate Warren supporters. 

[UWS]

It seems that his No Malarkey tour has been helpful for Biden to retake the lead in Iowa.

Anyway this is a bad poll for Warren and Buttigieg will definitely finish at least third in Iowa caucus.