IA - Emerson: Biden +1

[Queen Isuelt]

Klobuchar has 24 offices now in Iowa more than Bernie and Similar levels to Warren, Buttigieg.

She also is the only one campaigning in rural Iowa counties.

The problem for Klobuchar is Mayor Pete has 2.4m of faceless lobbyist cash buying Iowa’s media market.

[2016]

It seems that his No Malarkey tour has been helpful for Biden to retake the lead in Iowa.

Anyway this is a bad poll for Warren and Buttigieg will definitely finish at least third in Iowa caucus.

It's Emerson. Take it with huge grain of salt here. Waiting for Des Moines Register/CNN, Iowa State, CBS/YouGov, Quinnipiac or NBC/Marist.

Even Political Insiders admit that right now of the 4 Top Tier Democratic Candidates Pete Buttigieg has the best "Ground Game" in Iowa. No one will win the Caucuses without putting in the work. Buttigieg as far as I know has twice as many Offices in IA compared to Biden.

Buttigiegs Ground Effort reminds me a lot of that from Ted Cruz in 2016 and everyone back then was prollying around that Trump would win IA because he had such huge crowd support.

Iowans know Biden. The Guy has run twice for POTUS. In 1988 he even didn't make it to IA and in 2008 he finished fourth. Not a good record. Also, the Democratic Party has changed quite a lot from 2008.

Besides Iowans are probably go with an Outsider and Pete is that guy.

[Tintrlvr]

Will note that, although Buttigieg has dropped a lot, he is doing very well among minor candidate second-choices, and in fact wins when you apportion out second choice. (But this is mostly because it is just enough to push Warren above 15; if Klobuchar makes it above 15 or Warren fails to, then Sanders wins).

Will be interesting to see how the media reacts to different candidates coming in first in the first-preference and in the distributed result; the general precedent from Republican contests is to treat the first person as the winner, which would be an advantage to candidates with a high floor (Biden especially, who will struggle to win the delegate count, but also Sanders) and a disadvantage to candidates who are a common second choice (Buttigieg stands out here).

As someone else pointed out upthread, this is an increase of two points for Buttigieg compared to Emerson's last poll of Iowa.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It's Emerson, so let's not question why their polls should continue to be posted despite walls of "It's Emerson..." comments

[Xing]

Not sure I buy this, but if Biden does win Iowa, that's the ball game.