Will Trump do better in the 2020 election than 2016?

[SN2903]

Many indicators currently are pointing toward yes with the advantage of incumbency, a good economy and a divided and weak democratic party that cannot unite on a message other than opposing Trump.

Impeachment clearly isn't playing which is why dems are now scrambling and supporting the USMCA because they ran on working together and haven't worked with the other side on zip so far.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Many indicators currently are pointing toward yes with the advantage of incumbency, a good economy and a divided and weak democratic party that cannot unite on a message other than opposing Trump.

Impeachment clearly isn't playing which is why dems are now scrambling and supporting the USMCA because they ran on working together and haven't worked with the other side on zip so far.

Let me ask you amore nuanced question, SN.  Let's say Trump does indeed improve upon his performance in 2016.  Does that still mean a close election in 2020? A massive Reagan-esque landslide where Trump stuns pundits by flipping states such as New Jersey and Oregon? Or something in between?

I'll answer your original question by saying it's too early to tell.  Trump could do better, but there's also room for him to do worse.  Though I will say that the odds are slightly in his favor at this point. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, the QU poll yesterday showed Biden ahead by 9 points again over Trump

[pbrower2a]

Incumbency is an advantage to an office-holder already in -- if that office-holder at least seems competent and effective. Obama gets credit for whacking Osama bin Laden and for putting an end to a dangerous meltdown of the economy. Dubya proved an awful President, but only in his second term -- but in the autumn of 2004, the speculative boom was going along well and Saddam Hussein was about to go on trial for his life for crimes against humanity. Bill Clinton didn't shake things up too badly.

The elder Bush was in political trouble as Americans got tired of more of the same, which has no bearing on Trump. If Hillary Clinton were President she would likely face the same problem that the elder Bush faced.

Trump is neither competent nor effective -- and worse, pervasively corrupt. Sure, the economy has yet to crash. We have no good analogue for a Presidency as corrupt as his. Trump lost only three medium-to-large (9 or more electoral votes -- CO, MN, and VA) by 6% or less and won seven such states. That is pure luck, and luck is not a tangible quality upon which one can reliably draw.

His approval levels are in the range in which he loses the next time. He should have been gaining recently if he were positioning himself to win re-election: his approval ratings are abysmal, and his disapproval ratings are even more ominous. 

No, the QU poll yesterday showed Biden ahead by 9 points again over Trump

I never saw Obama, Dubya, not Clinton behind any challenger by 9% at any time.         

[Frenchrepublican]

It depends, in terms of raw number, I would say ''yes'', but in terms of margin, I lean toward ''no''

[SuperCow]

Let me ask you amore nuanced question, SN.  Let's say Trump does indeed improve upon his performance in 2016.  Does that still mean a close election in 2020? A massive Reagan-esque landslide where Trump stuns pundits by flipping states such as New Jersey and Oregon? Or something in between?

Most likely somewhere in between, unless someone finds out the Democrat nominee was a KKK member in the 1970s or something equally heinous.

New Jersey - Almost impossible, Oregon - Very unlikely unless perfect circumstances favoring Trump entirely in 2020 happen.

The realistic possibilities are for Trump to win the popular vote narrowly, and win his 2016 states plus ME-AL, NH, MN, NV

Unrealistic additions to that could be VA, CO, NM.

I can't see any other possible pickups without a deadly epidemic that specifically targets liberals.

[Spark]

It's quite possible

[RGM2609]

Probably not better but only marginaly worse. I am not sure it will matter in the end

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Biden is gonna win OH bigger than PA, due AA vote in Akron, Cleveland and Cincinnati and win TX by a bigger margin than FL due to Ramirez defeating Cornyn and Latinos. Possibly pickup of AK, due to 1K a mnth Ak gives to its citizens

Setting the stage up for Tim Ryan, Ron Kind and Joe Sestak running against Toomey and Portman in 2022

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If he loses, then he will lose by a lot as every person to beat an incumbent President has gotten more than 55% of the electoral vote (exception is Jefferson 1800 who got 52%).

But if he wins, he can win by any margin. My prediction for his win right now is like 2016 except without Michigan, but he might be able to pull MI off again and win NH too. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

I doubt it. I expect that he will either do very similarly to 2016 or do worse. But it barely matters since even in doing worse he still can win the electoral vote because our system is stupid!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Word of advise SN just because you don’t like any of the democrats (because you aren’t one) doesn’t mean it’s a weak field. Compare say the 2012 to now and you didn’t see lower tier candidates like Santorum or Cain beating Obama in hypothetical matchup polling like Mayor Pete does. Heck most of the field is polling higher in the RCP average then Hillary was at this point

[morgankingsley]

If he does it will only be by Minnesota and new Hampshire and every thing else is fantasy

[SN2903]

If he does it will only be by Minnesota and new Hampshire and every thing else is fantasy

no it isn't.  340 350 ev is in play because of impeachment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know Trump is still popular in the midwest and the Dems have the Sunbelt like AZ and TX and NC as backup to losing MI or PA. Biden is the strongest Dem to go against Trump.

[ProudModerate2]

I think he will do worse as far as his percentage of the popular vote, and also do worse in his electoral count. It's just a matter of how much in the electoral count, and will it be enough for him to still win.

[Non Swing Voter]

No, the best indicator is how people voted in 2018, which means Trump has lost ground in the suburbs and particularly in Pennsylvania and Michigan.  So he probably won't do better in terms of the electoral college.  He'll almost certainly do worse in the popular vote unless Warren is the nominee. 

The economy was also good in 2018 as well and that didn't help Republicans at all.

[Pericles]

If he does it will only be by Minnesota and new Hampshire and every thing else is fantasy

no it isn't.  340 350 ev is in play because of impeachment

Impeachment is ahead in the polls and people know Trump is a crook, he got lucky in 2016 but he hasn't gotten more popular since then. All those voters that hated Hillary haven't warmed to him, he is making it very hard for himself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, TX is more likely than not to vote Dem this time, since Cornyn is vulnerable over FL

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I see nothing in the polling over the past three years to indicate Trump has expanded his coalition beyond White Evangelicals, Whites without a college degree, and Whites in rural areas.

As far as popular vote margin, Trump will not improve. It's theoretically possible he could improve in the Electoral Vote by picking up Minnesota, New Hampshire, or Maine at large, however.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Honestly? Who knows. We probably will never have a clear picture of how the election will turn out. We won't know until the results come in.

[SN2903]

Many indicators currently are pointing toward yes with the advantage of incumbency, a good economy and a divided and weak democratic party that cannot unite on a message other than opposing Trump.

Impeachment clearly isn't playing which is why dems are now scrambling and supporting the USMCA because they ran on working together and haven't worked with the other side on zip so far.

Let me ask you amore nuanced question, SN.  Let's say Trump does indeed improve upon his performance in 2016.  Does that still mean a close election in 2020? A massive Reagan-esque landslide where Trump stuns pundits by flipping states such as New Jersey and Oregon? Or something in between?

I'll answer your original question by saying it's too early to tell.  Trump could do better, but there's also room for him to do worse.  Though I will say that the odds are slightly in his favor at this point. 

No I don't think it will be that close.

[SN2903]

If he does it will only be by Minnesota and new Hampshire and every thing else is fantasy

no it isn't.  340 350 ev is in play because of impeachment

Impeachment is ahead in the polls and people know Trump is a crook, he got lucky in 2016 but he hasn't gotten more popular since then. All those voters that hated Hillary haven't warmed to him, he is making it very hard for himself.

  Not luck. He is a far better campaigner and politician than Hillary. Impeachment has gotten less popular.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If he does it will only be by Minnesota and new Hampshire and every thing else is fantasy

no it isn't.  340 350 ev is in play because of impeachment

Impeachment is ahead in the polls and people know Trump is a crook, he got lucky in 2016 but he hasn't gotten more popular since then. All those voters that hated Hillary haven't warmed to him, he is making it very hard for himself.

 Not luck. He is a far better campaigner and politician than Hillary. Impeachment has gotten less popular.

Impeachment is less popular and Trump is on the verge of losing TX, Dems dont have to won the white vote, Biden  has to turn out AA and Latinos and females. The Dems have always got 40% of the white male vote, while GOP got 60%.  More Dems will turn out for Biden than Hilary, reflected in the polls, that's why Biden is doing better in NC, GA and AZ than in MI and WI. States with high Latino and black population.

[Frodo]

No, though I am increasingly confident he is going to be re-elected next year, especially with his success with NAFTA 2.0 which is going to buoy the economy even more than it is already.  If he is looking for a reason as to why he isn't benefiting more from this supposedly peachy economy, he should look in the mirror.  

Our mission as Democrats should be to make his likely victory next year as narrow and as lonely as possible.