Is Elizabeth Warrens campaign over? Can’t see how she recovers now.
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  Is Elizabeth Warrens campaign over? Can’t see how she recovers now.
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Poll
Question: Is Elizabeth Warrens campaign over?
#1
Yes (she has no path to nomination but will fight on for momentum)
 
#2
Yes (she has lost and she has no chance to comeback)
 
#3
No (she still can win the nomination)
 
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Total Voters: 100

Author Topic: Is Elizabeth Warrens campaign over? Can’t see how she recovers now.  (Read 1850 times)
Queen Isuelt
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« on: December 11, 2019, 08:32:19 AM »

In my view Warren is done and like Harris it’s all about timing and saving face.

1) Her electability is killing her.
2) Medicare for All
3) Pandering to the professional middle class
4) Not focusing on her strength - financial services and banking rigging the system.

She will carry on but she has no viable path to be the nominee now.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2019, 08:36:53 AM »

No, but she's gotta win back on folks like me on healthcare since we're the type of voters who she lost to Buttigieg en masse after the October debate.
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Lambsbread
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2019, 08:40:01 AM »

She has an amazing presence on the ground in Iowa from what I've seen/heard. Winning IA automatically makes one a legitimate contender for the nomination. Even if she places 2nd or 3rd, she will have some great momentum going into NH and NV.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2019, 08:57:07 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 01:41:48 PM by Crumpets »

She's barely behind Bernie and judging by some polls, Buttigieg has already peaked. All she really has to do is scoop back up just a fraction of the voters she lost to him and she'll be back in second place, in good position to win Iowa. It's not a slam dunk, but it's not exactly impossible either.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2019, 09:08:21 AM »

They’re all going to lose to Joe Biden but she can still claw her way back into a one on one with him.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2019, 09:12:40 AM »

We had these exact same questions asked about Sanders' campaign, and now hes back in 2nd. Dont count anyone in the top 4 out.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2019, 09:45:18 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 11:34:58 AM by GP270watch »

The more she gets in front of an audience the better she does. The more Biden speaks the more his numbers go down.

 Warren's been consistent no matter what the pundits say. They keep writing her off and she just keeps working her message. She's really the only presidential candidate with a cohesive message and a framework for achieving her goals.
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AN63093
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2019, 09:50:30 AM »

They’re all going to lose to Joe Biden but she can still claw her way back into a one on one with him.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2019, 10:01:27 AM »

She joins the Harris club as Dems whom have risen to top of the polls and fade to the bottom
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2019, 10:05:48 AM »

Remember when Sanders fell like a point behind her and you clowns were crying desperately for him to immediately drop out?  Fun times.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2019, 10:29:54 AM »

Remember when Sanders fell like a point behind her and you clowns were crying desperately for him to immediately drop out?  Fun times.

Because Warren did something Sanders has yet to do, created a coalition that surpassed Biden. Sadly for her, it only held together for a week. Sanders has been stuck in the same polling range since May, which is good for a solid second place but its not enough to defeat Biden.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2019, 10:32:27 AM »

Remember when Sanders fell like a point behind her and you clowns were crying desperately for him to immediately drop out?  Fun times.

Because Warren did something Sanders has yet to do, created a coalition that surpassed Biden. Sadly for her, it only held together for a week. Sanders has been stuck in the same polling range since May, which is good for a solid second place but its not enough to defeat Biden.

I would agree if we had a national primary on one day.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2019, 11:04:54 AM »

In my view Warren is done and like Harris it’s all about timing and saving face.

1) Her electability is killing her.
2) Medicare for All
3) Pandering to the professional middle class
4) Not focusing on her strength - financial services and banking rigging the system.

She will carry on but she has no viable path to be the nominee now.

I disagree.  I think Warren is just the ugly duckling, and could be a great underdog story for the brainy geeks aspiring to be President. 

1) She’s not electable because she exudes anxiety and uncertainty with her demeanor and constant stammers when she’s caught off-guard.  She’s a brilliant person that lacks confidence, and she doesn’t know how to flip an attack on her policies and campaign into a positive. Everyone can see it.  I actually thought she could have been a scary candidate for her opponents had she been able to overcome her personality flaws.  If you’re a weird policy wonk with no social life, own it.  Fight back against those career politicians masquerading as principled people, and expose them as the charlatans everyone knows them to be.  It works.  People will excuse the break from decorum to hear someone being honest. 

2) Healthcare is basically the number one issue after electability.  I think Warren doesn’t really have a big issue with Medicare For All, as she is basically further left on the issue than everyone aside from Sanders.   The problem is that she keeps getting attacked from the right by corporate candidates, and doesn’t counter attack by comparing them with Republicans that keep to the status quo.  Just reframe the issues, and put it back on Klobuchar’s attack about it being a pipe dream.  Obamacare was once a pipe dream.  She also needs to form an alliance with Bernie Sanders to fight back. 

3) I assume you are talking about the proposed provision in her healthcare plan that would benefit the middle class?  Yeah.  Go ahead and attack me for wanting to help the middle class.  Everyone knows appealing to the middle class is a losing argument.  Not.

4) She tried doing it, but the climate isn’t ripe for attacks on the finance and banking system.  There are other labor issues affecting tens of millions of voters that she would do well to focus on.  Leave the financial system changes to your first term.  That’s like when Republicans were doing their anti-terrorism act during the 2012 and 2016 primaries.  Even Republicans were sick of it. 
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2019, 02:16:58 PM »

I was betting on her either running up numbers with white Democrats or making inroads with minorities. Doesn't seem like she's done either.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2019, 02:35:13 PM »

It's all over, she joins the Harris club as almost beating Biden
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2019, 02:59:31 PM »

It's not totally over for her, but it doesn't look good.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2019, 03:04:54 PM »

She hasn't fallen off enough where she is out of the mix yet.

Now if she drops below 10% nationally and/or loses badly in Iowa + New Hampshire, come talk to me.
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John Dule
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« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2019, 03:53:18 PM »

Uh-oh-- here we go again! Time for another spin!


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Pollster
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2019, 03:57:11 PM »

Buttigieg timed his paid media blitz to directly coincide with the debate, a 1-2 punch the Warren campaign was not ready for.

Sanders smartly timed the AOC endorsement with the debate, probably assuming Warren would take the hardest hits and that it would be the ideal time to take back progressive votes.

Warren; however, is largely the same candidate now as she was before that debate. She remains the only candidate in the race who has organically and steadily grown her support rather than using manufactured moments to create polling surges. When a campaign creates a polling surge, they must identify these new supporters and create a relationship with them to keep the support. Kamala Harris notably failed to do this. Warren approached the campaign from the reverse: she created the relationships first, and brought on the moments after, to reinforce the relationships rather than to create them.

These relationships still exist. Warren remains a candidate for which there is still a lot of genuine affection. It is telling that even as she has slipped and underwent multiple tough media cycles, she is still squarely in the top tier and still within the MOE of leading in multiple important states. Her on the ground organization is still powerful and run by - as I'm told - some of the most devoted and invested volunteers in generations. She has proven her ability to recover from negative cycles and revitalize herself before.

Buttigieg's polling high appears to have peaked and is showing some signs of recession. Warren's campaign is heading into probably its most critical stretch now - time to see if the time spent creating those relationships and cultivating that ground game can pay dividends.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2019, 04:43:20 PM »

It's not totally over for her, but it doesn't look good.

This.
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W
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« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2019, 05:59:06 PM »

she has peaked and spirals back down to her token 5-10% nationally by iowa. hot take and i will gladly eat my words if proven wrong.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #21 on: December 11, 2019, 06:15:27 PM »

For all intents and purposes, this is the end of the road for Warren.

She will continue to campaign, but has lost much of her credibility.
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JGibson
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« Reply #22 on: December 11, 2019, 06:32:15 PM »

No, it isn't over by any means.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #23 on: December 11, 2019, 06:43:28 PM »

Probably.  2 major issues sunk her:

1. Warren sounds like she is stuck in time loop in 2008.  Making gloomy rigged economy rhetoric the centerpiece of your campaign sounds out of touch today and is not going to beat Trump.  Sanders gets this to at least some degree and tends to give a net optimistic message about the future he wants to build.  Warren is all "everything is hopelessly set against you and only I have the knowledge/plan to save you."  This message works well in 2008 or 1932.  It doesn't work as well in normal times and it definitely doesn't work when unemployment is at a 50 year low.  It also sounds surprisingly elitist to many Dems.  

2. Going all in on Medicare For All and then committing to release that nonsensical plan to pay for it.  
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: December 11, 2019, 07:56:26 PM »

Certainly not, though it will be more difficult if she fails to reclaim the momentum she had before. Let's see how this last debate goes. Peaking too early is never good though, of course.
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