UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Tartarus Sauce]

The Lib-Dems are arguably having a worse night than Labour.

As somebody that would have voted for them if I lived in the UK as I would be a single-issue Brexit-oriented voter in such a scenario, they should just fold as a party at this point. They failed to pick up multiple target seats, their leader lost her seat, and their presence caused multiple ticket-splits where remain tactical voting failed, allowing Cons to squeak by in some super-heavy remain seats.

With Jeremy Corbyn on the way out, their last reason for existing, appealing to anti-Brexit yet anti-Corbyn voters, will be nullified. So what's the point of them hanging around after that? They would simply be a spoiler ballot against the conservative, nativist, anti-globalist vote which the Tories have consolidated under one banner. The Remainer vote, and the votes of those who may not be a current Remainer but will turn against the Tories as the consequences of Brexit become clear, needs to similarly unify. A Labour Party that pulls itself away from Corbynite socialism is the obvious choice in that regard.

Sorry Lib Dems, you tried to make it work, and I was rooting for you, but you're on your way to being functionally obsolete.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Votes/constituency right now:
Green: 829,049
Lib Dem: 379,089
Labour: 49,542
Conservative: 38,295
SNP: 25,961

This is some ed up vote efficiency.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: FPTP simply is not democratic.

[junior chįmp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1205317958316253189

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1205318275174981635

[Green Line]

So far the Conservatives have broken even in London.  We will see what happens in Croydon.

Thank you Chipping Barnet for returning your wonderful MP!!

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Mebyon Kernow (Cornish National Party) didn’t keep their deposit in St Austell and Newquay, receiving only 3.0%.

Count Binface got 69 votes against Boris though.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Orkney and Shetland stays Lib Dem

44.8% LD
34.0% SNP

[Intell]

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1205317958316253189

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1205318275174981635

The ethnic diversity is misleading, the tories have gained amongst non-muslim BME voters.

[DistingFlyer]

Sure enough, how little time it takes for those northern Labour voters to transform from 'solid working-class citizens' to 'uneducated white bigots' in the eyes of many commentators. As people on this side of the Atlantic should know, you'll never get those guys' votes back if you start talking to & about them that way.

(Note that I'm not speaking as a supporter of Brexit, nor as a fan of the current Tory government - I'm neither.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whatever the many, many failings of the Labour Party in its present form, we can be absolutely sure that won't be the general reaction from it.

Of course, and this can't be pointed out enough, Labour fairly clearly didn't lose many votes directly to the Tories. The polling looks to have been correct: instead, they suffered serious bleeding to abstentions and to small/minor parties. The electoral system did the rest.

[King of Kensington]

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1205317958316253189

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1205318275174981635

The ethnic diversity is misleading, the tories have gained amongst non-muslim BME voters.

Being Canadian, the idea of someone named Rob Ford being an academic expert on right-wing populism is quite amusing.

[King of Kensington]

20% for the Brexit Party in Doncaster North.  A Canadian academic I know who is very close to the Miliband family and the Labour left did some canvassing with Ed Miliband and he reported that Farage was popular and Corbyn was hated, even among old militants of '85 (he's an IRA supporter!)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Seats left to declare and their exit poll ratings

St Ives - 75% Tory hold, 25% Lib Dem gain
Devon West & Torridge - 99%+ Tory hold
Arundel & South Downs - 99%+ Tory hold
Horsham - 99%+ Tory hold
Croydon South -  99%+ Tory hold
Northamptonshire South - 99%+ Tory hold
Fermanagh & South Tyrone - Not in exit poll

So, 5 almost certain Tory holds, a possible Lib Dem gain from the Tories, and a Northern Ireland seat.

[DistingFlyer]

Tory vote on 13.8 million votes now, with 5 results left - doesn't look like they'll quite break their 1992 record, but will surpass the runner-up of Labour in 1951.

Seat-wise, barring a huge upset it they should have 364 or 365, depending on how St. Ives goes. The Liberal Democrats haven't done that well in targeting Tory seats, so it will probably be 365. Either way, the exit poll was extremely close (though it was less accurate for Labour - it often is for the second party, as it was in 2001 & 2005).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Seats left to declare and their exit poll ratings

St Ives - 75% Tory hold, 25% Lib Dem gain
Devon West & Torridge - 99%+ Tory hold
Arundel & South Downs - 99%+ Tory hold
Horsham - 99%+ Tory hold
Croydon South -  99%+ Tory hold
Northamptonshire South - 99%+ Tory hold
Fermanagh & South Tyrone - Not in exit poll

So, 5 3 almost certain Tory holds, a possible Lib Dem gain from the Tories, and a Northern Ireland seat.

Croydon South and Horsham are Tory holds as expected.

[Lord Halifax]

NI

DUP 8
SF 7
SDLP 2
Alliance 1

First HoC election with a unionist minority.

[Oryxslayer]

NI

DUP 8
SF 7
SDLP 2
Alliance 1

First HoC election with a unionist minority.

F & S Tyrone has been uncalled for some reason...

Edit: it returned like before as Sinn, though extremely close.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Wasn't St. Ives one of the last seats to be called in 2017? What's going on there? Does it have to do with the Isles of Scilly being in the constituency?

[urutzizu]

BBC Projected eventual Vote share:
Conservatives: 45%
Labour: 33%
Lib Dems: 12%
Greens: 3%
Brexit party: 2%

Which makes the Opinium Poll bang on, despite the widespread ridicule it received.

Scotland Popular Vote:
SNP: 45%
Con: 25%
Lab: 19%
Lib Dem: 10%

[ibagli]

Wasn't St. Ives one of the last seats to be called in 2017? What's going on there? Does it have to do with the Isles of Scilly being in the constituency?

Yes, and bad weather means it will be even later than usual.

[mileslunn]

Looks like in vote changes, Conservatives only went up 1.2%, but mostly in the right places as appears they fell in London and Scotland but rose elsewhere and biggest swings in traditional Northern seats.  Big reason was Labour drop was 7.8%.  Liberal Democrats actually up 4.2% but they targeted the wrong seats and I also think part of the rise was you have some who dislike Johnson and Corbyn strongly and so decided both were awful and so just went for first preference.

In the North, I think part of the swings were Brexit and no doubt next time they can win some back, but some like Basseltaw, Bishop Auckland, and Workington and other similar ones will be tough to win back.  Never mind I noticed the strongest swings away from Labour were in constituencies without an incumbent so lacking an incumbent will be tough.  Those assuming they will swing back are mistaken.  Johnson is not going to run an austerity driven government like Cameron did.  Labour's problem is like many left wing parties, they just don't connect culturally with blue collar smaller communities and they need to find someone who can to win there.  Yes you have some like Macron, Ardern, and Trudeau although first one is not popular and only won due Marine Le Pen being a fascist but would probably lose to a less extreme populist conservative.  Ardern is far from a shoo in next year and Trudeau got lucky with a lousy Tory leader (A better one would have beat him), but also largest province Ontario flirted with right wing populism provincially and negative impacts turned people away from it.  But those assuming same thing will happen with Johnson need to remember it was austerity in big part there which Johnson won't do.

Labour can win again, but I think the electoral map will be a bit different and it will be a long rebuilding process.  Assuming Brexit will go badly and Johnson will be hated is a risky proposition as may happen but may not.  They don't need to be as centrist as Tony Blair was, but they definitely shouldn't be as far left as Corbyn.  Anyone who is wildly popular amongst your SJWs on university campuses is exactly the type who will lose you elections.

[mileslunn]

Some interesting tidbits on top two parties.

Tories:

Best showing vote wise since 1970 (so much of the population cannot remember when they did this well).

Best showing seat wise since 1987 (Most millennials cannot remember such a strong majority for them).

Labour Party

Worst showing seat wise since 1935 (so few alive to remember Labour ever doing this poorly).

Vote wise only worst showing since 2015 (got lower vote share in 2015 and 2010).

[King of Kensington]

Why do the Lib Dems do so well in SW London?

[DistingFlyer]

Some interesting tidbits on top two parties.

Tories:

Best showing vote wise since 1970 (so much of the population cannot remember when they did this well).

Best showing seat wise since 1987 (Most millennials cannot remember such a strong majority for them).

Labour Party

Worst showing seat wise since 1935 (so few alive to remember Labour ever doing this poorly).

Vote wise only worst showing since 2015 (got lower vote share in 2015 and 2010).

Unless the Tories do extraordinarily well in the three remaining seats, it looks like their total vote will be just a little bit less than 1979 (right now it's 43.6% in the UK vice 43.9% in 1979; 44.7% in GB vice 44.9% in 1979).

In terms of their lead over Labour, it's almost identical to 1987 (11.6% vice 11.7%), though obviously the parliamentary majority is appreciably less.

[Silent Hunter]

Why do the Lib Dems do so well in SW London?

Heavy Remain area, but it used to be a stronghold of theirs.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Johnson is not going to run an austerity driven government like Cameron did.

But those assuming same thing will happen with Johnson need to remember it was austerity in big part there which Johnson won't do.

His Chancellor of the Exchequer is Sajid Javid.