UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Reluctant Republican]

Did Labour's loses come primarily from any specific wing of the party?

[Intell]

That age divide though.

[Skill and Chance]

That age divide though.

Interesting that the Conservatives performed best with C2.   I believe that is upper working class/wealthier-than-average people without higher education?  They are also the strongest Republican voting demographic in the US now.

Also, how "elite" is A in this system?  Is it equivalent to a generic corporate management position or is it equivalent to "my grandparents met at Cambridge"?

[Tintrlvr]

That age divide though.

It's particularly shocking when you realize how many of those 65+ voters must have been voting Labour 20-30 years ago.

[Queen Isuelt]

Bbc reporting that Labor northern  parliamentary party want Lisa Nandy to run or Yvette Cooper (both northern heartlands) Anyone from London won’t work to retain loses.

Are Lisa Nandy or Yvette Cooper credible opposition?

[Intell]

That age divide though.

It's particularly shocking when you realize how many of those 65+ voters must have been voting Labour 20-30 years ago.

The age divide is worse than in 2017.

In 2017

18-24:

Labour: 62%
Con: 27%
LD: 5%

65+:

Conservative: 61%
Labour: 25%
LD: 7%


https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

The 2017 election showed how there was still a class divide within different age groups as well. I wonder what the 2019 one will show

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a map showing regional swings:



Almost 1979 in reverse - the swing gets bigger the further from London you go (except in Scotland).

To compare, here are the regional swings for 2017 (somewhat similar to 1992):




The swing recorded yesterday in Great Britain was 4.6% - a little less than that of 1970 or 1979, but the biggest in modern times towards an incumbent government (exceeding the 4.1% in 1983).

Additionally, the Tories got 54.1% of the Midlands vote; this is not only their highest since 1935, but the first time they've gotten a higher vote in the Midlands than the South (48.7%), though the southern Tory vote outside of London is still a little higher (54.6%). The 4.3% rise in the Midlands was also the biggest increase they got in any region.

As in 2017, the Tory vote fell in London, from 33.1% to 32.0%. It only rose a small amount in the rest of the South (53.7% to 54.6%), resulting in an almost identical share across the whole South (48.3% to 48.7%).

Where it fell the most was in Scotland - 28.6% to 25.1%, costing them a lot of seats to the SNP, who rose from 36.9% to 45.0%.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Those aren't the official regions, are they? In most maps I've seen there's a separate Northeast (the historical Northumberland and Durham) and Northwest (the historical Cheshire, Lancashire, Westmorland, and Cumberland), and the East Anglia region also includes Essex and the northern Home Counties.

[DistingFlyer]

Those aren't the official regions, are they? In most maps I've seen there's a separate Northeast (the historical Northumberland and Durham) and Northwest (the historical Cheshire, Lancashire, Westmorland, and Cumberland), and the East Anglia region also includes Essex and the northern Home Counties.

They're what you might call the 'old regions,' which is how the country used to be divided; I've kept using them as a way to offer consistency when looking back over many elections. East Anglia is used instead of East of England, and North instead of Northeast.

[Frodo]

That age divide though.

So what does 'AB', 'C1', 'C2', and 'DE' stand for?  I know they are social classes, but beyond that.....   

[Clyde1998]

That age divide though.

So what does 'AB', 'C1', 'C2', and 'DE' stand for?  I know they are social classes, but beyond that.....  

AB - Higher & intermediate managerial, administrative, professional occupations
C1 - Supervisory, clerical & junior managerial, administrative, professional occupations
C2 - Skilled manual occupations
DE - Semi-skilled & unskilled manual occupations, Long-term unemployed and lowest grade occupations

IIRC, retirees are allocated to the job which they were working before retiring.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Skilled tradespeople have been a Tory-leaning or at least Tory-curious demographic since Thatcher, haven't they?

[Clyde1998]

Leave - 43%
Regret - 6%
Accept - 13%
Remain - 37%

Always going to be a Conservative win with those percentages either wanting to leave or accept leaving.

[Clyde1998]

Skilled tradespeople have been a Tory-leaning or at least Tory-curious demographic since Thatcher, haven't they?

Group	2010	2015	2017	2019	2016 ref
AB	Con 39% (+2), Lib 29% (nc), Lab 26% (-2)	Con 40% (+1), Lab 28% (+2), Lib 13% (-16), UKIP 10% (*)	Con 44% (+4), Lab 35% (+7), Lib 13% (nc)	Con 44% (nc), Lab 31% (-4), Lib 15% (+2)	43% Leave
C1	Con 39% (+2), Lab 28% (-4), Lib 24% (+1)	Con 34% (-5), Lab 31% (+3), UKIP 13% (*), Lib 9% (-15)	Con 41% (+7), Lab 41% (+10), Lib 8% (-1)	Con 45% (+4), Lab 33% (-8), Lib 11% (+3)	51% Leave
C2	Con 37% (+4), Lab 29% (-11), Lib 22% (+3)	Lab 31% (+2), Con 31% (-6), UKIP 21% (*), Lib 7% (-15)	Con 44% (+13), Lab 39% (+8), Lib 6% (-1)	Con 50% (+6), Lab 30% (-9), Lib 9% (+3)	64% Leave
DE	Lab 40% (-8), Con 31% (+6), Lib 17% (-1)	Lab 39% (-1), Con 22% (-9), UKIP 20% (*), Lib 6% (-11)	Lab 46% (+7), Con 34% (+12), Lib 6% (nc)	Con 43% (+9), Lab 37% (-9), Lib 7% (+1)	64% Leave

2010 data from Ipsos Mori, 2015 onwards from Lord Ashcroft.

C2s voted Labour in 1992-2005, 2015 (because of UKIP) and Con 2010, 2017, 2019.

[mileslunn]

That age divide though.

So what does 'AB', 'C1', 'C2', and 'DE' stand for?  I know they are social classes, but beyond that.....  

AB - Higher & intermediate managerial, administrative, professional occupations
C1 - Supervisory, clerical & junior managerial, administrative, professional occupations
C2 - Skilled manual occupations
DE - Semi-skilled & unskilled manual occupations, Long-term unemployed and lowest grade occupations

IIRC, retirees are allocated to the job which they were working before retiring.

Huge age division and just eyeballing it looks like electorate leaned older.  Will be interesting if younger voters stay left or move right with age.  If they stay Labour, could be devastating to Tories, but considering that many seniors probably once voted Labour, that may change.

[mileslunn]

Gender gap seems to have widened as my understanding barely existed in 2017 so looks like Labour only suffered minor losses amongst women but massive amongst men.  If only men could vote, it would be over 400 seats for Tories while if only women probably similar to 2017 with Tories being right on or close to line.

[Intell]

Gender gap seems to have widened as my understanding barely existed in 2017 so looks like Labour only suffered minor losses amongst women but massive amongst men.  If only men could vote, it would be over 400 seats for Tories while if only women probably similar to 2017 with Tories being right on or close to line.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

Yes, men were +4 tory while women were +1 tory in 2017.

But look at this gender divide by age in 2017.

18-24: Men: +16 Labour
18-24 Women: +55 Labour!

(+39 women labour vote vs men)

25-34 Men: +24 Labour
25-34 Women: +34 Labour

(+10 women)

35-54 Men: +2 Labour
35-54 Women: +9 Labour

(+7 women)

55+ Men: -26 Labour
55+ Women: -31 Labour

(-6 Women)

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/nick_ramsey/status/1205629524790202369?s=20

[politicallefty]

Leave - 43%
Regret - 6%
Accept - 13%
Remain - 37%

Always going to be a Conservative win with those percentages either wanting to leave or accept leaving.

I was actually going to make a post some thoughts wondering about that question myself, in particular that third group ("Accept"). Obviously, Corbyn was a massive problem for Labour and really and truly unelectable (I see no reason to pile on here though). However, I think the other main reason the Tories won was due to that third group. If I had to wager a guess, I think that group voted especially Conservative because they're sick and tired of the gridlock and tired of the Brexit debate. It's completely and totally dominated everything for the past 3.5 years now. The prospect of a second Brexit referendum, another divisive campaign and stretching the Brexit debate out even longer, had to have been a massive anathema to them and a lot other voters as well. I don't like any of this myself personally, but "Get Brexit Done" was a simple, yet very powerful message that probably did resonate with a good portion of Remain voters (let alone allowing them to win the lion's share of Leave voters). A Conservative Majority was ultimately the only realistic possibility to end the gridlock and just get it over with.

[DistingFlyer]

County Durham (2005-2019):

2005 - Lab 56.3%, Lib Dem 21.3%, Cons 16.6%
2010 - Lab 45.3%, Lib Dem 24.1%, Cons 21.4%
2015 - Lab 48.5%, Cons 25.4%, UKIP 15.7%, Lib Dem 6.0%
2017 - Lab 54.6%, Cons 35.3%, Lib Dem 4.5%, UKIP 3.4%
2019 - Cons 40.6%, Lab 40.4%, BRX 8.4%, Lib Dem 7.0%

Tories below 20% in 2005, third place until 2015 - a 24% rise overall (and from zero MPs to four of seven)

[Intell]

Anyone have a Labour+Green (+SNP) swing vs a Con+Brex swing, that shall be an interesting map.

[DistingFlyer]

Biggest swings in each direction:

Labour to Conservative - Bassetlaw (18.4%)
Conservative to Labour - Bradford West (6.5%)

Conservative to Liberal Democrat - Esher & Walton (18.5%)
Liberal Democrat to Conservative - North Norfolk (17.5%)

Labour to Liberal Democrat - Streatham (17.5%)
Liberal Democrat to Labour - Bermondsey & Old Southwark (2.7%)

Conservative to SNP - Edinburgh South West (10.4%)
SNP to Conservative - Banff & Buchan (0.4%)

Labour to SNP - Glenrothes (10.1%)

Liberal Democrat to SNP - East Dunbartonshire (5.3%)
SNP to Liberal Democrat - North East Fife (1.4%)

PC to Conservative - Carmarthen East & Dinefwr (4.3%)

Labour to Brexit - Barnsley Central (22.8%)

Labour to Green - Dulwich & West Norwood (9.1%)

[Walmart_shopper]

Honest question: Does anybody really think Corbyn's supposed antisemitism cost Labour a meaningful number of votes? Do working-class people in leave areas actually care about Corbyn's position on BDS or Israeli settlements? I personally doubt it but the media has been mentioning this issue non-stop as a factor.

Of course not. Britain has always had a foul straim of anti-Semitism meaningfully impact public discourse. It runs quite thick through all segments of society, and anyone supposing that the Tories are any kind of a philo-Semitic refuge are delusional.

In any case, to watch Israeli and Zionist British voices break their arms triumphantly patting themselves so vigorously on the back as though their dishonest shrieking about Jeremy Corbyn actually mattered to anyone anywhere is astonishing. If anything, such histrionic madness is more and not less likely to encourage British anti-Semitism. It is a kind of critical inversion of the traditional victim culture championed by certain whiny leftists, where the rich, powerful Israel and its supporters become victims while the feckless Corbyn guy and his collection of radical pro-Palestinian betes-noirs are the powerful oppressors. And just as people get really annoyed hearing about how victimized privileged elites are, people will grow weary of hearing how Jews, perhaps the most (deservedly) protected group in Western Europe today, are feebled victims. It is a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy that feeds the worst impulses of both Jewish society and the sick bigots who want to harm Jews.

[Clyde1998]

Leave - 43%
Regret - 6%
Accept - 13%
Remain - 37%

Always going to be a Conservative win with those percentages either wanting to leave or accept leaving.

I was actually going to make a post some thoughts wondering about that question myself, in particular that third group ("Accept"). Obviously, Corbyn was a massive problem for Labour and really and truly unelectable (I see no reason to pile on here though). However, I think the other main reason the Tories won was due to that third group. If I had to wager a guess, I think that group voted especially Conservative because they're sick and tired of the gridlock and tired of the Brexit debate. It's completely and totally dominated everything for the past 3.5 years now. The prospect of a second Brexit referendum, another divisive campaign and stretching the Brexit debate out even longer, had to have been a massive anathema to them and a lot other voters as well. I don't like any of this myself personally, but "Get Brexit Done" was a simple, yet very powerful message that probably did resonate with a good portion of Remain voters (let alone allowing them to win the lion's share of Leave voters). A Conservative Majority was ultimately the only realistic possibility to end the gridlock and just get it over with.

My parents and sister voted Conservative largely for that reason; also a dislike of Corbyn. I think my parents usually vote Conservative anyway, but may have voted Lib Dem in the past (my constituency was a Con-Lib marginal in the 2000s), while my sister voted Lib Dem at the last two elections as an anti-Conservative vote, IIRC, but was massively put off by their revoke policy and wanted closure to the Brexit process. She also said that she couldn't work out what Labour's policy actually was on Brexit - not knowing if they actually wanted to go ahead with it or they were attempting to cover up that they actually supported remaining.

Incidentally, the Ashcroft poll included a question about how people would've voted if Brexit wasn't an issue - coming out as:

Con: 42% (-3); 353 seats (-12)
Lab: 33% (nc); 209 seats (+7)
SNP: 4% (nc); 47 seats (-1)
Lib: 12% (nc); 16 seats (+5)
PC: 1% (nc); 4 seats (nc)
Grn: 5% (+2); 1 seat (nc)
Brx: 2% (nc); 0 seats (nc)
Oth: 2% (+1); 2 seats (+1)

The seat changes would depend on how much the Brexit impact had in specific constituencies and the campaign would've been very different, but the seats I project would've changed hands on those national shares are:

Con -> Lab
Bolton North East
Bury North
Bury South
Gedling
High Peak
Kensington

Con -> Lib
Carshalton & Wallington
Cheltenham
Wimbledon
Winchester

Con -> Oth
East Devon (Ind)

SNP -> Lib
East Dunbartonshire

There are seven more Conservative held seats where my calculator shows a majority of less than 1% over Labour.

[Clyde1998]

That age divide though.

So what does 'AB', 'C1', 'C2', and 'DE' stand for?  I know they are social classes, but beyond that.....  

AB - Higher & intermediate managerial, administrative, professional occupations
C1 - Supervisory, clerical & junior managerial, administrative, professional occupations
C2 - Skilled manual occupations
DE - Semi-skilled & unskilled manual occupations, Long-term unemployed and lowest grade occupations

IIRC, retirees are allocated to the job which they were working before retiring.

Huge age division and just eyeballing it looks like electorate leaned older.  Will be interesting if younger voters stay left or move right with age.  If they stay Labour, could be devastating to Tories, but considering that many seniors probably once voted Labour, that may change.

The same was true for the referendum and the 2017 election - also for the independence referendum in Scotland (majority for independence among under 65s according to the Ashcroft 'how did you vote?' poll).

It's hard to tell if it's a generational thing in terms of different values, or whether it's just different issues being important among voters of different ages (as the issues change, the vote could change).